Pre-Election Coalition DPS-SDP

A Winning Duet?

The reason why Djukanovic's DPS (Democratic Party of Socialist) and Rakcevic's SDP (Social-Democratic Party) have formed a coalition is to secure a certain victory at the April extraordinary elections. However, will that be enough for the referendum?

AIM Podgorica, March 22, 2001

Choosing between running at the elections in a group or alone, the Democratic Party of Socialist decided for a duet. At the extraordinary elections for the Montenegrin Parliament on April 22, it will run together with the Social-Democratic Party, its hitherto coalition partner with which it is not only sharing the power, but also conviction that Montenegro should be independent and internationally recognised state and, as such, form an alliance with Serbia. Their joint slate will number 63 candidates for delegates from DPS ranks and only 14 from the SDP. This ratio underlines the superiority of the stronger partner, but without underestimating the weaker one.

For a long time the DPS considered which card to play at the elections which, in all likelihood, will not only decide who will rule over Montenegro in the future period, but also what will that Montenegro be like – an independent state or a part of FR Yugoslavia. Precisely because it needed to resolve this dilemma in favour of Montenegrin independence, it seemed likely that all political parties, which more or less openly favour the independence of Montenegro, would join forces. However, the DPS made it immediately clear that it was not interested under a pretext that that would serve as an alibi for the grouping of pro-Serbian and pro-Yugoslav forces in one bloc. Milo Djukanovic's Socialists were not even willing to immediately answer the invitation of Social-Democrats to join them in a pre-election alliance.

Until recently, the DPS leaders tried to leave the impression that the best thing for their party would be to run in the elections alone, and only then to select a corresponding partner. Only when it became evident that political parties from the opposing camp would join forces (the Socialist National Party and the National Party), the DPS leadership changed its mind. It was not hard to think of some explanation for this decision.

"The similarity of our political programmes and plans regarding the future relations within Montenegro have made it easy for our party's leadership to decide to remain in that coalition alliance", said Miodrag Vukovic, President of the DPS Executive Board announcing a convincing electoral victory.

Several latest public opinion polls have shown that individually speaking the DPS has no competition on the political scene of Montenegro, because it has some 35 percent of the overall electorate on its side. That is enough for it to boast of being the strongest political party, but not to secure the absolute majority in the future Parliament. In other words, it needed an ally and the selection was natural.

Naturally, the DPS could have let SDP run in the elections on its own and agree to form a coalition with it afterwards, but that would be an unnecessary risk because SDP is not strong enough to get into Parliament. The traditional SDP voters are also aware of this so that there was a possibility of some of them going over to the DPS. Such a change of sides would only represent a loss for DPS itself.

Apart from the mentioned calculation, the DPS's decision to form a pre-election alliance with the Social-Democrats might have also been motivated by a wish to show the voters that they should not have any doubts that there would be a referendum on the state-legal status of Montenegro after the elections, as well as that this party would remain committed to Montenegro as an independent and internationally recognised state. In other words, the Social-Democrats serve here as some sort of guarantor that the Montenegrin President and the DPS leader, Milo Djukanovic, will keep his promise.

The SDP leader, Zarko Rakcevic, hurried to announce this as soon as DPS made public its decision to form a coalition. "Statements of President Djukanovic, as well as the stand of the DPS Main Board are quite clear regarding the state status of Montenegro. We are certain that we shall round off what we have been doing with the DPS these last three years. For the SDP, Montenegro comes first and there can be no compromise regarding its independence. We believe Djukanovic and the DPS Main Board", said Rakcevic.

However, the absolute majority in Parliament, on which the DPS-SDP coalition is counting, is not enough for the "uncompromising" policy. "Perhaps, after the elections we will have to make a political agreement with one more, perhaps only one, democratic party so as to have not only an absolute majority in Parliament, but also a majority which is considered necessary for legitimate bringing of the most important decisions on the future of the state and citizens of Montenegro", said the DPS high official Miodrag Vukovic. Vukovic did not specify it, but it was clear that they were primarily counting on the Liberal Alliance as a post-electoral ally in decision-making (two-thirds majority) on the change of the state status.

Why should the Liberals be a desirable ally after and nor before the elections? LSCG answered this question by accusing DPS and SDP of continued manipulations and by claims that they couldn't be trusted to organise a referendum on the state-legal status of Montenegro, if they get a chance. According to Miodrag Zivkovic, the LSCG's political leader, after the elections the DPS and SDP will continue negotiating future relations with Belgrade for ever.

That is precisely why the Liberals insisted that things should be settled before the elections and, in that context, offered the DPS to join forces with them in a coalition, but only if that party renounced its "ambiguous" platform on relations between Montenegro and Serbia. It was an effective pre-election move on the part of the Liberals, but the fact remains that the DPS does not want to deprive itself of maneuvering space.

By distancing itself from the Liberals even before the elections, the DPS is attempting to leave the impression on the voters, Belgrade, as well as the international community that it is still sincerely interested in reaching a solution through negotiations. With such a strategy it is trying to keep on its side those voters who would certainly desert it if they knew that there was no hope for the union of Montenegro and Serbia. This is more or less evident from the electoral coalition slogan - "Victory is Montenegro" which without openly saying it obviously implies independent Montenegro.

However, the DPS has indirectly let the Liberals know that their offer of cooperation has not been rejected, but rather postponed for the finals of the political tournament. That should mean that the strengthening of the Liberals would be beneficial for the coalition and that the DPS had no intention to do anything so as to win over the voters, which happened in the past. Besides, those who are torn between the coalition and the Liberals can now be certain that their vote for the Liberals would not be lost. On the contrary, the greater presence of Liberals in Parliament might mean only greater guarantees that a referendum on the state-legal status will be held after the elections.

And while the Liberals are doubting the formed coalition, their main political opponents - the Socialist National Party and the National Party - are blaming them for something that the Liberals would like to see in them - "open separatism". In this they focus their attention on the DPS electorate sending it hints that DPS has fallen under the ominous influence of Social-Democrats, just like it happened in Serbia when JUL ruined the Socialist Party of Serbia.

Apart from the fact that these are two parties of unequal strength and influence that have joined forces, there is nothing else that might suggest any similarity between DPS-SDP and SPS-JUL. This naturally, doesn't mean that the Montenegrin pre-electoral duet will not sing the winning song in the end. It is realistic to assume that it will, but one should not lose sight of the fact that the singing contest is opened until April 22.

Dragoljub VUKOVIC

(AIM)