American Elections and Kosovo

AIM Pristina, December 31, 2000

The victory of conservative Republicans in presidential elections in the USA, was received with restraint among the citizens of Kosovo, primarily because of the great aid the administration of the Democrats headed by Bill Clinton had offered Kosovo. However, connoisseurs of political circumstances in Kosovo, including independent analysts and representatives of political parties, suggest that changes in American state leadership should not cause fear of a possible change of the course of American policy towards Kosovo and the region in general. In any case, doubts of the Kosovars concerning the course that will be followed by new American president George W. Bush is the result of the pre-election promise of Bush Junior that American troops would be withdrawn from Kosovo and the Balkans. During his three-day visit to Kosovo, advisor of American State secretary James Pardew declared that he was convinced that Kosovo was an American interest and that this was the reason why American policy would not change regardless of the pre-election declaration of Bush. "Such comments were stated at the height of the political campaign and they were addressed to a very specific audience and at a very specific time" explained high American official Pardew on the occasion of opening of some facilities financed by American administration, mentioning also the engagement and obligations taken by the USA which are determined to carry them out to the end - when Kosovo is concerned. Pardew admitted however that he still had not contacted any member of the new team in Washington in order to discuss the course the new government of the Republicans intended to take now that they had succeeded in regaining power after eight years of the rule of the Democrats.

On the other hand, although they publicly suggest that there should be no doubts about the American course, the Albanian political leaders and independent analysts in Kosovo seem to have certain reservations towards President George W. Bush. They publicly claim that American foreign policy always had continuity of action. Milazim Krasniqi, political analyst and the current vice-president of a political party in Kosovo, claims that the changes in the White House are part of democratic procedures, which do not change the fundamental American doctrine because it has century-old coherence. "New president Bush will act in accordance with American policy which has interest in the Balkans and especially for Kosovo", says Krasniqi, reminding that the father of the new American president who preceded Clinton in office, was the person who set the famous "red line" for Milosevic when Kosovo is concerned. Mr. Krasniqi thinks that Mr. Clinton was behind his time in defending the "red line" set by his predecessor.

The former known Kosovar politician from the time of communism who is believed to be well acquainted with American foreign policy Mahmut Bakalli determined that changes in American administration would not bring essential changes in American policy to the Balkans and Kosovo. "I am convinced that the administration of President Bush will continue with the military, political and economic engagement concerning Kosovo and there is no reason for fear about it", declared Mr. Bakalli.

Political leaders and independent analysts have great confidence in the coherence and continuity of American foreign policy. Mr. Milazim Krasniqi goes back to the historical context, convinced that American policy would remain unchanged. "The moral meaning of American policy is the question of the model of American democracy for us, the Albanians. There are two presidents we should remember. The first id president Wilson who saved the Albanians at the Versailles conference and the second is Bill Clinton who saved Kosovo in the past war", says Krasniqi. The continuity of American policy was announced in the context of this "moral meaning" by the advisor of Mr. Bush for national security Ms. Condoleeza Rice who, commenting on Bush's statement on the possible withdrawal of American soldiers from Kosovo, explained that it implied regrouping of American army, because "our allies in the whole world will become aware that Bush is a sincere friend and that it did not even occur to him to interrupt the mission and run away"... In the attempt to be even more convincing, Ms. Condoleeze Rice reminded: "Don't forget the fact that Bush supported military intervention in Kosovo"...

Statements of American ambassador in the OUN Richard Holebrooke were also observed in this context. In the last days of his mandate he sharpened his statements. Stressing that the final status of Kosovo should be determined at an international conference similar to the one held in Dayton, Ambassador Holbrooke who is very well acquainted with the problems of Kosovo and the Balkans, resolutely declared that "regardless of who will be in the White House, the USA will do their job in Kosovo". At the end of Clinton's administration in office other officials have also spoken about the unchangeable course of American policy. After the first meeting with her successor Colin Powell, American state secretary Madeleine Albright declared that the regions of South-Eastern Europe and especially Kosovo were in American interest and that their intervention was necessary in order to stop Milosevic's regime. She also expressed conviction that that this policy will continue. In this sense observers in Kosovo also see the sign of continuity of American foreign policy in the composition of Mr. Bush's future administration, who has gathered persons close to his father, choosing Dick Cheney for his deputy, and former defence minister general Colin Powell to be state secretary.

Declarations of George W. Bush on withdrawal of American soldiers from Kosovo and Bosnia did not meet with approval of the leadership of NATO, although conviction was expressed that their mission would continue. The press in Kosovo carried on the front pages the statement of NATO Secretary General George Robertson given during his latest visit to Kosovo: "American soldiers are brave and excellent professionals and their presence in international missions is needed". And while discussions about possible withdrawal of American soldiers from Kosovo continue in different circles, Pentagon appointed a contingent of American army which will serve in Kosovo until 2005.

The initial concern of Kosovar public about changes in American administration has at its foundation the fear of changes, and not some thorough analysis of the engagement of American Democrats or Republicans in the region of the Balkans and especially in Kosovo. The analysts remind that such concern also prevailed in Kosovo four years ago when the Republican Robert Dole lost in presidential elections from Bill Clinton whose administration later did a lot for the Albanians and Kosovo since then. This changeability of stands was largely influenced by indecisiveness of the powerful Albanian lobby in the USA during the last decade and their dilemma whether to offer support to the Democrats or the Republicans. After all, Kosovar analysts conclude with certainty that this region is in the interest of long-term American strategy which simply cannot be changed even by a president.

AIM Pristina

Rrahman PACARIZI