Ivanic, Candidate for Prime Minister: Return of the Reconciliator

AIM Banja Luka, December 26, 2001

Uncertainty about the nomination of the candidate for prime minister of Republika Srpska (RS) was eliminated unexpectedly quickly. President of the republic Mirko Sarovic nominated the candidate immediately after the first round of consultations with the representatives of parliamentary and non-parliamentary parties by offering the job to Mladen Ivanic, president of the second most powerful party in the parliament – the Party of Democratic Progress (PDP).

The choice of Ivanic has not surprised the public, although the president himself had at first announced that he had had several candidates in mind. On the one hand, the choice was expected because of the parliamentary support Ivanic's PDP had offered to the Serb Democratic Party (SDS) in forming the parliamentary majority, and on the other, Ivanic is nowadays the only political figure who has authority in domestic and international political public. For connoisseurs of political circumstances in RS Ivanic was the only possible choice for the SDS and the only politician who can keep the SDS politically alive.

That this time there was no haggling and quibbling in the procedure of nomination is due to the fact that the SDS and Ivanic had a mutual bad experience in a similar situation less that three years ago when Ivanic was the candidate for prime minister nominated by Biljana Plavsic, president of RS at the time. That is when the SDS refused to talk about the concept of the government of national unity proposed by Ivanic who did not wish to give it up. Instead of Ivanic who refused the mandate, Milorad Dodik became the prime minister and the SDS, although a majority party in the parliament had to move into the opposition.

Political irony arranged it that both the SDS and Mladen Ivanic returned on the political scene in the same roles. Nowadays, however, Ivanic has a strong party behind him, and the SDS at its head has the cadre which according to many is inclined towards reforms.

When the contents is concerned, Ivanic's concept of the government has not changed much, and the SDS, due to the rigid stand of the international community, is not in the position to stipulate and publicly present its conditions to the candidate for prime minister. Before nomination, Ivanic has made it clear that the stand of his party was not to have ministers from former wartime and post-war governments in the cabinet, that he claimed the exclusive right to choose on his own the ministers of finance, police and justice and that the ministers would answer to him personally, and not to the political parties. “Parties may nominate candidates but I will choose the ministers and they must be experts who will professionally do their jobs”, Ivanic briefly explained his principles.

From the very beginning Ivanic was subjected to very great pressure of the international community which delivered him something like an ultimatum that the SDS, as a nationalistic and wartime party, should not participate in the government. The Americans were very blunt having threatened that the American administration would interrupt every form of aid to RS. In his diplomatic contacts, which he had with almost all the representatives of the international community, Ivanic has succeeded in convincing his interlocutors that such disregarding of the election results endangered the very foundations of democracy which ought to be patiently built on the will of the people. His political concept started from the view that it was impossible to ignore the SDS, but that it was possible to reform it. He even managed to convince the leaders of the SDS that this was true asking them to show a desirable level of democratic maturity by readiness to make a compromise.

In the showdown with the SDS Ivanic has significant support of the Office of High Representative (OHR) and international officials who have submitted to the leaders of the SDS Sarovic and Cavic, even before the parliament was constituted, a list of Dayton obligations they wish to see fulfilled as a condition for their survival in power. On the list are the return of refugees, continuation of economic reforms, construction of devastated religious buildings and extradition of the indicted for war crimes. Their signature on this document frees the future prime minister of accusations that he has exceeded the limits of “national interest” without the agreement of the president and the parliament.

Everything that the leaders of the SDS have taken on as an obligation from the OHR refers to Ivanic as well. However, in public appearances he just sticks to explanations of the strategy of overcoming the difficult economic situation and to promises that economic reforms and struggle against corruption would continue. All that with a little bit of optimism: “The new government must reveal to the people the situation in which we are. It is exceptionally difficult and it will not be easy to resolve. The government does not have a magic wand, but things can certainly get better than they are today”.

Ivanic has promised he would compose the cabinet by January 12. Judging by what he has presented as his principles, there will be party candidates of the SDS in it, but they will not be symbols of the party but primarily experts. To the question whether there would be Bosniacs and Croats in the cabinet, Ivanic answered affirmatively. The question remains open whether they will be party candidates or just Bosniacs and Croats who live in RS. The future prime minister received a threat of the women's lobby from Bijeljina that he would have a women's shadow cabinet to deal with if there were no women among the ministers. He replied that there would be women in his cabinet.

Dodik's Party of Independent Social Democrats has also announced a shadow cabinet. “Any shadow cabinet is welcome and any criticism of the work of the government. We welcome it and it is a pity prime minister Dodik did not have such a cabinet at his time”.

The first sparks between the former and the new prime minister promise an interesting battle in the political arena.

Branko Peric

(AIM)