Montenegro Facing New Dilemma

Elections or Referendum

Although the opposition Socialist People's Party is more keen on early elections than direct declaration of the will of the citizens on the future state and legal status of Montenegro, the elections may be scheduled thanks to the People's Party, one of the members of the ruling coalition

AIM Podgorica, December 17, 2000

According to the promises of Montenegrin authorities, the referendum on the state and legal status of Montenegro may be expected to take place by the middle of next year. The relations within the ruling coalition called “For Better Living”, however, indicate that early parliamentary elections are more likely to happen than the referendum, which the once pro-Milosevic's Socialist People's Party (SNP) and nowadays the coalition partner of the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) on the federal level insist on.

The beginning of work of the parliamentary task group which is charged with amending the old or elaborating a new law on referendum and rules on public debate via public media showed that one of the members of the ruling coalition, the People's Party (NS), wishes to obstruct preparations for the referendum. Its representatives have not appeared at the first, constituting meeting of the mentioned parliamentary committee. Judging by the statements of the leader of the Populists Dragan Soc they will not appear in the future either, if their demands are not met.

For quite a while, the People's Party has been accusing the other two coalition partners, the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP), that they are waging a campaign for independence of Montenegro in state media and in this way put advocates of different political stands in an unequal position. “We do not want the three minutes in parties' mirror (a TV show reserved for presentation of the stands of parliamentary parties) after another party has explained its stands for half an hour in the central state daily news show”, says Soc and warns that his party will not permit “the referendum campaign to go on” and “the media rules to be applied only in the end”.

An important precondition for creation of possibilities for fair and democratic declaration of the will of the citizens concerning the future state and legal status of Montenegro, according to the opinion of the leadership of the People's Party, is resignation of the editorial team of Montenegrin state television headed by the editor-in-chief Velibor Covic. The People's Party persistently insists on this demand in negotiations with the coalition partners and conditions with it its cooperativeness in preparations for the referendum.

Because of the editorial policy of state media and even more because of disagreement with the views of DPS and SDP on future relations between Montenegro and Serbia (a union of internationally recognised states), the People's Party is becoming an increasingly problematic link in the chain of the current coalition authorities. Soc's Populists are nowadays, according to many things, closer to the Socialist People's Party of Momir Bulatovic than to the parties they won power with almost three years ago. Unlike SNP, NS does not give advantage to early elections, but with its behavior it can be the one to bring them about although it is a question to what extent it would be convenient for it at this moment.

If at the forthcoming meeting of the leaders of the ruling three parties a compromise is not reached with the Populists about state media and the platform for negotiations with the new Serbian regime, they can do nothing but split. Such an outcome would leave two possibilities for the DPS and the SDP. The first is to reach an agreement with the Liberal League on support to their minority government or to persuade the Liberals to replace NS in the government. The other possibility is to schedule early elections.

The first possibility is more attractive for the Socialists of Montenegrin president Milo Djukanovic and the Social Democrats of Zarko Rakcevic. After all, the Liberal League has on several occasions expressed readiness to help. But the problem is that the Liberals are conditioning their help with the extremely clear stand of Djukanovic and Rakcevic that they are in favour of independent and internationally recognised Montenegro. This, however, does not fit into the strategy of president Djukanovic and his party because they are doing their best to preserve the widest possible manoeuvring space on the eve of the forthcoming negotiations with Belgrade on future relations of Montenegro and Serbia. Besides, they shrink from offering the opportunity to the Liberal League to make conditions and possibly even blackmail them.

Behind the effort of the DPS and the SDP to persuade the Populists to be cooperative and remain in the government is in fact the wish to avoid early elections. These elections would not be just a new waste of time which is very short as it is. They would force Montenegrin president Milo Djukanovic and his party to test among the membership and the voters the validity of the political shift which is reflected in the stand that Montenegro should be an independent and internationally recognised state.

Although according to public opinion polls, the majority which prefers Montenegrin state independence to some state arrangement with Serbia has already been ensured, this still does not mean that the elections would not bring any surprises, if nothing else in the distribution of the votes of the independists. Besides, postponement of the referendum in Montenegro could be used by the federal authorities for new tactical manoeuvres against official Podgorica forcing it to squander its political energy on several issues. There are speculations that the federal authorities could schedule new elections for the federal parliament next spring after returning the Constitution of FRY back into its former state, the one before the amendments passed in July this year.

Since very little time is left until the new Serbian government is formed, this means that the political denouement in Montenegro will be accelerated. Montenegrin government will soon have to adopt the platform for negotiations with the new Serbian government which will be formed by the Democratic Opposition of Serbia. And this means that it is necessary to make it finally clear whose platform it is – only that of the Democratic Party of Socialists and the Social Democratic Party, or of the People's Party, too.

Clarification of the relations within the coalition is indeed the starting point for all the others. When this happens it will be more certain what awaits Montenegro first – the referendum or early elections.

Dragoljub VUKOVIC

(AIM)