Macedonia and Rise of Tensions in Southern Serbia

GLOOMY SCENARIO SYNDROM

The situation in southern Serbia, quite understandably, attracts the attention of politicians, diplomats and analysts in neighbouring Macedonia. Nevertheless, this gave rise for the local media to indulge in their old habit of devising as dark as possible scenarios of future developments

AIM Skopje, 14.12.2000.

Upon the most recent rise of tension in southern Serbia the Macedonian army has tightened security measures and control over the bordering zone. Police patrolling the area are doing the so-called "in depth rounds" in the several kilometers wide zone skirting the borderline within the Macedonian territory. High police officials are coordinating all activities in the field. The distance between Skopje and the Presevo Valley is barely some forty kilometers, making the anxiety over the future course of events quite understandable.

So, the old, gloomy scenarios of possible future events have sprung to life, once again. Shortly after the first skirmishes in southern Serbia, the influential Skopje Dnevnik daily alleged that foreign diplomats caution present developments might easily draw Macedonia into a crisis which, as is predicted, will culminate not earlier than spring of next year. Relying on the notion that the so-called Presevo, Medvedja and Bujanovac Liberation Army (PMBLA) numbering at the very least 400 well armed men, seeks to unstabilize the whole region - i.e. Kosovo, a part of southern Serbia and a part of Macedonia - the Skopje newspaper took the view that the members of these paramilitary formations wish to call the attention of the international community to their existence and at the same time discredit the newly established authorities in Belgrade. "The principal aim of the militant ethnic Albanians is to win back the sympathy of the international community and to picture the Yugoslav president Vojislav Kostunica as a 'mere Milosevic clone'".

At the time of the Kosovo crisis, Macedonia represented an important logistics base for the combatants of the former Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). At least that is what, wholeheartedly backed by the media, the local politicians maintained. Storage of arms allegedly belonging to the KLA had been found on several occasions in the past, so who is to say that something similar will not happen again - runs the judgment of the army. Perhaps the fact that the former Kosovo Liberation Army enjoyed considerable popularity among the Albanians in Macedonia, especially the young, should be taken into consideration too. The media in Macedonia claim that a number of ethnic Albanians from Macedonia are among the ranks of PBMLA. The key evidence to the fact, according to them, is the information that two of some twenty odd Albanians recently apprehended by KFOR turned out to be Albanians from Macedonia - one from Tetovo, the other from Kumanovo. All of the apprehended are presently held in the American military base Camp Bondsteel near Urosevac. Furthermore, the Macedonian police have identified a few other members of the newly established paramilitary formation, mostly men belonging to the former KLA, as persons of Macedonian descent. The KFOR press center in Pristina, on the other hand, claims not to be in possession of facts collaborating the assertion that Macedonian citizens are among the arrested. Similarly, the Serbian police say they are unable to confirm the information, at the same time stating that they do have at their disposal data of foreigners joining arms with PBMLA...In a statement given to the private Skopje Telma network last week, the Serbian Internal Affairs co-minister Bozo Prelevic declared that, in spite of tensions in the southern Serbia border zone, the necessary co-operation between the Macedonian and the Yugoslav police has not yet been effectuated.

The Macedonian police, allegedly, posses positive evidence of an organized network of arms smuggling and supplying to the three-border area in the Presevo Valley between Serbia proper, Kosovo and Macedonia, the route becoming increasingly important lately. A number of military analyses carried by the press reflect the opinion that members of PBMLA, faced with a tight KFOR sealing of Kosovo boundaries, might attempt a "breakthrough" across the Macedonian territory and then pass over into the Presevo Valley - without major hindrances.

The commander of the KFOR rear-echelon headquarters in Macedonia, Walker Luff is somewhat more cautious: according to him it is a question of possible, but merely possible and yet unconfirmed movements of personnel and logistics of the PBMLA through Macedonia. "We have exchanged information indicating that some form of activity on the part of PBMLA is perhaps taking place in Macedonia, but KFOR lacks the mandate in this country", the German general stated for the latest issue of the Zum weekly.

At the talks of President Boris Trajkovski and the Minister of Defense Ljuben Paunovski with the NATO Secretary General George Robertson last week, it was agreed that there is a need for all the countries in the region, Macedonia in particular, to engage in stabilizing the situation in Kosovo and southern Serbia. Minister Paunovski who took part at the meeting of the Euroatlantic Partnership Council in Brussels, told his colleagues that his government would not react rashly to provocation such as arms smuggling, possible terrorist acts and the like, since that would only aggravate the situation. In a statement given to the Skopje Dnevnik, Paunovski announced the imminent arrival of a NATO observation and analytic team which is to screen the situation along the Macedonian border.

Possible refugees are also a part of the tragic scenario syndrome the media in Macedonia are so prone to. At the time of the Kosovo crisis it was claimed that chaos would ensue, that the demographic structure of the country would suffer a dramatic change, that Macedonia would crumble under the arduous burden of several hundred thousands of Kosovo Albanians... Of all these refugees, barely some ten thousand have remained in the country. Some twenty days ago, the ever-vigilant "crisisologists" met the first stream of refugees from southern Serbia - who, just like their predecessors from Kosovo a year earlier, came to Macedonia "as guests" - with uneasiness. The transparently unconvincing excuse instantly led some reporters to the conclusion that a tidal wave of at least 20,000 of these wretched people is to follow. Luckily, for the moment, there are no new refugees in sight...

Unlike to previous critical situations, the neighboring countries are now willing to cooperate. Within the framework of his diplomatic tour of the Balkans, the Greek Minister of Defense Akis Tsohalopulos made a stopover in Skopje on Sunday, received as a VIP of the highest possible order. No wonder, since he did not utter a single discrepant word to the conclusion of his host Ljuben Paunovski that the responsibility of Greece, as the sole NATO member in the region, is particularly great. So, it seems, there is no lack of contact among capitals in the region. On Wednesday, Macedonian and Greek heads of diplomacy, Kerim and Papandreu, made a telephone call from Thessaloniki to their Albanian colleague Pascal Milo, the Yugoslav foreign minister Goran Svilanovic is expected in Skopje in the next few days...

All in all, the chances of any of these disastrous scenarios coming true are drastically diminishing. Their creators have no choice but to think up new ones. For some other, future occasion...

AIM Skopje

ZELJKO BAJIC