Between the Hammer and the Anvil

As conventional as it may sound, the saying used in the title best illustrates the situation in which the Party of Democratic Prosperity has found itself by negotiating post festum with Prime Minister Ljupco Georgijevski on entering his cabinet.

AIM Skopje, December 12, 2000

"We have begun the talks but they have not ended; there are, however, indications that the talks could end successfully," said Party of Democratic Prosperity president Imer Imeri on Dec. 12, after the first round of negotiations with Prime Minister Georgijevski. Several hours earlier, attending the opening ceremony of the Bira Exhibition, Prime Minister Georgijevski told journalists that the VMRO-DPMNE had, at the start of the talks on a new parliamentary majority and new cabinet, agreed with its coalition partner, the Democratic Party of Albanians, to offer the Party of Democratic Prosperity two portfolios in the cabinet. According to local news media, the two posts are that of deputy prime minister, to be given to Imer Imeri, and of minister of local self-government.

The prime minister also said that it would be rather difficult for the ruling coalition to raise the issue of the recognition of Tetovo University in the middle of its term, given that the coalition had decided to resolve the question of Albanian-language university education by passing a law based on Max van der Stoel's idea of a private university.

After meeting with the prime minister, Imer Imeri elaborated in an Albanian-language BBC broadcast the contents of a platform his party wants adopted as a precondition for entering the government: "Our platform has been widely known for quite a while. The key issue is Albanian university education. Other issues related to Albanians, such as language, recognition of diplomas, etc., were also on the agenda." Imeri stressed that Georgijevski's response had been positive and that he hoped that an agreement would be reached soon.

In short, this sums up the situation in which the Party of Democratic Prosperity has found itself in the negotiations with Prime Minister Georgijevski on its entering his cabinet, although only some 10 days ago, when the survival of the prime minister was uncertain, the Party of Democratic Prosperity joined the efforts of the Social Democratic Union, the Democratic Alternative party and the True VMRO party to form a new parliamentary majority that would topple Georgijevski. As is already known known, the coalition between Georgijevski and the Democratic Party of Albanians managed to make it through the crisis thanks to the fact that three MPs from the Liberal Party joined them, as well as two independent caucasses. The former was given certain concessions -- Stojan Andov became speaker for the third time, and his party was given the posts of deputy prime minister and foreign minister, whereas the latter consists of Albanian dissidents from the Party of Democratic Prosperity and Macedonian dissidents from the Democratic Alternative Party.

This begs a question: why, if everything is clear and Georgijevski managed to save himself at least for following three months (the cabinet's first 100 days in office) do the two sides need negotiations? It is only natural that the prime minister, who now has 65 votes in the Parliament, should desire to obtain an additional nine votes controlled by the Party of Democratic Prosperity, but it appears this was not the sole reason for the talks. Those claiming the issue has to do with foreign diplomatic pressure sound rather credible. Well-informed sources say that the Party of Democratic Prosperity was pressured by two sides -- by Tirana and by diplomats accredited in Macedonia -- to join the leader of the VMRO-DPMNE even before Georgijevski resolved the crisis. This is how, it appears, the party secured itself additional maneuvering space.

Well-informed circles speculate that Georgijevski's desire to have this party in his cabinet does not only mean the sidelining of ethnic relations and tackling more crucial matters in a relatively peaceful period, but was also prompted by insistence of foreign diplomats, particularly the Americans. The sources say that this was insisted on for at least two reasons: the first one is to raise the quality of Albanian participation in the government because the Democratic Party of Albanians was allegedly labelled a symbol of illegal deals of all sorts (involvement in organized crime, smuggling), with the only saving grace beings its leader, Arben Xhaferi, and the second, also having to do with Xhaferi, preparation for the post-Xhaferi era. Xhaferi's health problems are widely known, as well as his wish to have more time for medical treatment. Foreign diplomats are certain that the party will have difficulties to survive without its strong cohesive element -- Arben Xhaferi -- and that without the timely replacement of Albanian representatives with a "combination" including a "remainder" of the Party of Democratic Prosperity and the Democratic Party of Albanians could pose new problems and again cause the Georgijevski cabinet to be unstable. Foreign diplomats, who were very active in supporting and salvaging the Georgijevski government, wish to avoid that. Recently, in an interview on TV-Sitel, Xhaferi stated he would withdraw for personal reasons if the political situation calmed down.

The condition of the PDP concerning Tetovo University does not lead to what Imeri calls "the offered platform" and in which this issue constitutes, more or less, the main point. The position of Georgijevski is fully clear and cannot be any different, because it would directly work against his chief partner of the last two year's -- the Democratic Party of Albanians. In fierce confrontations over the adoption of a bill on university education which allows for the founding of private universities teaching in languages of ethnic minorities, the key issue of contention between the two Albanian parties was the fate of Tetovo University, whose founding act was signed by both of them at the end of

1. The Democratic Party of Albanians decided to take advantage of the idea proposed by the OSCE high commissioner for national minorities, Max van der Stoel. Simultaneously with the Georgijevski-PDP negotiations, the public was also flooded with reports that the Foundation for Education in South-Eastern Europe, based in Switzerland, had formed a board with the aim of realizing the idea on a new, private Tetovo University. Dr. Alajdin Abazi, the only board member from Macedonia to whom the position of director of the new university was offered, also re-emerged in the public after a long absence. The public was also presented with plans for the construction of a campus that should start before the year's end. The state donated a free lot near the Agricultural Secondary School in Tetovo, and about one-half of the US$22 million needed for the first university business plan has been ensured. It is quite obvious that the party condition to salvage the old Tetovo university does not go hand in hand with these activities. Except if it does not include an intention to dramatically weaken the VMRO-DPMNE position under foreign pressure, or better still, through blackmail based on Arben Xhaferi's poor health. On the other hand, if he fails to achieve a major part of his platform, the leader of the Party of Democratic Prosperity can hardly expect support for his group in Parliament which, ultimately, has to verify the agreement with Georgijevski by voting in his favor. The new leadership of Imeri's party, ever since its election six months ago, has been at odds with the party representatives in Parliament. This time around, in exchange for forgiving all that was said during the catastrophic local elections and the role the Democratic Party of Albanians had played in it, they are requiring guarantees for almost all their demands from the platform. This situation was described by the A-1 TV station several days as follows: the Party of Democratic Progress is united in the opposition and disunited in the government." The possibility of Imeri being accused of wanting to participate in the Georgijevski cabinet solely because he would be deputy prime minister should not be ruled out.

In any case, the PDP is facing a serious dilemma: what will it gain and what it will loose if it enters the Georgijevski cabinet. The Skopje-based paper Vecer sums up the dilemma in the following manner: "The PDP has to choose between a small degree of certainty and something that is entirely out of its reach." The party could gain much: not only the posts in the government that will satisfy its business lobby, but it might also avoid exposing itself to serious peril if it really decides to play the role of dignified Albanian representative in the cabinet and obtain international support which it now lacks. Finally, it will gain politically if it succeeds in ensuring at least favorable treatment for Tetovo University by the state, use of the Albanian language, flag, and the recognition of diplomas issued in Pristina and Tirana... Imeri and his associates will lose the most if they completely alienate themselves from their parliamentary group, which they cannot discipline by rigid measures and expulsion from the party. In this case, the Party of Democratic Prosperity will not only suffer much from inside disputes and bickering, but will be destined to fall apart once and for all.

Iso Rusi

(AIM)