Forming of Post-Election Coalitions in B&H
Who is the Real Winner?
AIM Sarajevo, December 3, 2000
Had the recent election results been scored in Bosnia a year ago, if not at the last 1998 general elections, everyone would have euphorically spoken about the defeat of the nationalistic concept of government and democratic changes in the country. However, after the pre-electoral atmosphere of these parliamentary elections - for which everybody, including independent studies prepared by foreign institutes, predicted the convincing victory of alternative parties, especially of the local Social-Democrats - the current "tie" is experienced as a defeat of the alternative parties or the repeated victory of the right wing forces.
Nevertheless, the hoped-for major changes are still possible, all the more so as - for the first time since 1990 - much less than one half of B&H citizens who have turned out for the elections have voted for the ten-year unquestioned coalition of the nationalistic parties SDS-HDZ-SDA. And, while in any other country such motley parliament, i.e. the absence of an absolute winner who could assume power, would be considered as basis of democracy, in Bosnia such a political mix is perceived as yet another problem in the establishment of the future institutions of the system. Namely, the first and foremost question is the one to which neither local nor international authorities in B&H have the answer: has the concept of government changed after these elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina or will the nationalistic structures (which are responsible for the war) continue to rule the country. In support of the change in the concept of government - i.e. the fall of SDS-SDA-HDZ coalition from power and anti- nationalistic coalition taking over - speaks the fact that SDP B&H has won the largest number of deputy seats in B&H Parliament and that the international community is allegedly also interested in such course of events.
The continuation of the rule of present power-holders with their so called democratisation is, on the other hand, supported by the fact that SDA and SDS are the strongest parties in their entities' parliaments, and HDZ in cantons predominantly populated by B&H Croats and that the international community is also interested in this course of events!
The moment it is known who will, how and with whom form the new Council of Ministers of B&H, i.e. the entity Governments, we shall know who is the real winner of the just concluded parliamentary elections in B&H. Social-Democrats as favourites on the one side, and the three-member nationalistic coalition on the other - both without sufficient support to independently form the government - are busily lobbying today for support of their option among the undistinctive parties (Haris Silajdzic's Party for B&H and Mladen Ivanic's Party of Democratic Progress), but also among the seriously divided international community. Namely, both Silajdzic's and Ivanic's parties have the power to tip the scales in favour of one or the other process, and since these are parties which represent once nationalistic and next time anti-nationalistic concept of power - depending on what they can gain from it - their answer is unpredictable.
Their answer is all the more linked to the stand of the international community, i.e. the future support of members of the Contact Group for the Implementation of Peace in B&H to one of the above mentioned processes. Although they have been advocating changes for years and declaratively claimed that they are for the new concept of authority in B&H, members of the Contact Group today are not unanimous regarding the support for the announced Alliance for Change which would leave out SDS-SDA-HDZ. In other words, the possibility of disunited international community failing to take the advantage of the opportunity it, allegedly, "dreamed of" is not completely out of question so that the chance for changing the concept of power in B&H might be irretrievably lost. According to information available to AIM, High Representative Wolfgang Petritsch strongly supports the idea on establishing an anti-nationalistic government both on the level of B&H, as well as on the level of both entities and in this he has the backing of the American and German representatives in the Contact Group for B&H. On the other hand, the French Ambassador in Sarajevo advocates the view of his administration that the formation of future authorities without SDS is unacceptable for them, justifying this by words that SDS is a reality which many Serbs in RS have voted for, that allegedly SDS is today a democratised national party in contrast to totalitarian nationalistic parties from the times of Karadzic's rule.
Such French stand should be observed in a broader context of developments in the Balkans, i.e. the French attempt at taking the political initiative in Europe which is happening simultaneously with the turmoil in the European Parliament. Namely, with the current prominence of French initiative in Kosovo (Bernard Kouchner) and their closeness with the new authorities in Serbia, the French have never been closer to taking over the initiative in the Balkans, i.e. suppressing the American influence in this part of Europe.
It should not be forgotten here that this in not the first such attempt and that a similar "political battle" was waged in previous years: the official name of the Framework Peace Agreement for B&H is actually the Paris Agreement (prepared in Dayton, but formalised and signed in Paris), but with the then flourish of the Americ an initiative in B&H, France lost that battle and the Peace Agreement became generally accepted as Dayton Accords, i.e. as an exclusively American project.
What should be expected in Bosnia and Herzegovina now? There are four possible scenarios for the future development of events and which one will materialise depends directly on the outcome of negotiations between Western countries involved in the political processes in the Balkans.
THE IDEAL SCENARIO: The announced Alliance for Change would be formed, i.e. a broad anti-nationalistic coalition to be led by SDP, in which other parties of both entities would also find their place (Kresimir Zubak's New Croatian Initiative - NHI; Milorad Dodik's Independent Social-Democrats - SD; Haris Silajdzic's Party for B&H Mladen Ivanic's Party of Democratic Progress - PDP, and some smaller parties on entity and cantonal level). Such coalition would have enough seats in Parliaments at all levels to form the state and entity governments without the participation of a single nationalistic party or their satellites. That would truly mean the change of concept of government in B&H and might guarantee country's speedier recovery and transition. However, this is hardly feasible because both Silajdzic and Ivanic lack political personality, and the international community lacks unity.
THE REALISTIC SCENARIO: Anti-nationalistic coalition on the level of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and national coalition on the entity level would be established. Such outcome would mean that, even without the support of the deputies from Ivanic's PDP, with the participation of Zubak's NHI and Silajdzic's Party for B&H, SDP will be able to form the Council of Ministers of B&H, i.e. push out SDA-SDS-HDZ from the central level of government. However, at the entity level, Ivanic's party would form a coalition with SDS in order to establish RS Government (this possibility has already been announced), while Silajdzic's party would behave similarly at the lower levels of the Federation, i.e. in cantons. In the first stage, the anti-nationalistic concept of government at the state, and national at the entity levels would produce a kind of interregnum of government where, again, the support of the international community would be decisive. This support would be primarily needed for the strengthening of the competence of the central institutions of the system and, consequently, of the anti-nationalistic concept of rule in B&H. For the members of the Contact Group this solution might also be a compromise, but a quality progress in the country's transition would require much more time than the mentioned ideal solution.
Namely, processes of disintegration and national homogenisation on entity levels would still be possible, which might have a bearing on the results of the coming elections planned in two years time.
THE DANGEROUS SCENARIO: Formation of proportional governments at all levels, depending on the number of won deputy seats. Although in all democratic societies such governments are even called governments of national salvation, it would be hard to imagine people responsible for the war, with an extremely nationalistic concept about whose involvement the Hague still did not say its final word, working together or having a joint programme with those who have built their political engagement on strong condemnation of such political activity. Such course of action is, naturally, advocated by national parties in B&H (especially by SDA) because it represents the most convenient way for maintaining and continuing their way of rule in the present situation when they have lost the absolute support of their voters.
In case there is no agreement about a better solution, Social-Democrats would, unfortunately, be forced to participate in such mixed government because otherwise, as the strongest party, they would be practically unable to explain their refusal to take part in such authorities! It would be especially hard at the cantonal level, where SDP has scored brilliant results, such as in Tuzla, or from the viewpoint of 22 SDP municipal presidents who in case of SDP's non-participation in the authorities would be left at the mercy of nationalists. On the other hand, smaller parties, like Silajdzic's, might reject taking part in proportional authorities explaining it with their refusal to form a coalition with nationalists, which would represent a formidable basis for the next elections. On the other hand, by joining the coalition, SDP would "sell out" its hard-earned image of a party alternative to nationalism and in return end up with a two-year toilsome "hand-to-hand" fighting with its nationalistic partners in the government.
THE FATAL SCENARIO: The nationalistic coalition SDS-SDA-HDZ forms the authorities on its own, after which each of them, together with their party satellites, would form the authorities in their own entity or one of its parts. If no agreement is reached on the establishment of anti-nationalistic coalition, in that case SDP - depending on its political programme - may still decide not to participate in the authorities together with Karadzic's, i.e. Milosevic's, Tudjman's or Izetbegovic's followers. Such SDP's move would be truly more than moral, but in politics morality frequently has nothing to do with pragmatism. For, in case of SDP's voluntary departure from the political scene, same as in 1990, the power would exclusively be in the hands of SDA-SDS-HDZ, which Alija Izetbegovic incidentally recently announced. It is frightening what this totalitarian coalition would be capable of.
Unfortunately, all options are still open! We shall not wait long for the results of various negotiations, consultations and, as some claim, even political bargaining going on today both in B&H as well outside it. Namely, according to the deadlines set by the High Representative for the formation of Government the announcement of the actual winner of B&H elections has to be made by the end of this week.
Ivana DRAZIC
(AIM Sarajevo)