Montenegrin Regime on Razor's Edge

Clinically (Still) Alive Coalition

After four meetings the experts of the Democratic Party of Socialists, the People's Party of the Social Democratic Party interrupted negotiations and the final decision is awaited now to be reached at the expected "summit" meeting of the leaders of the parties of the Montenegrin ruling coalition. Will that bring the end of the coalition?

AIM Podgorica, November 29, 2000

The work of the experts of the ruling Montenegrin parties on the new platform for redefinition of relations between Montenegro and Serbia has been interrupted until further notice. Not even after four attempts have they managed to overcome the first obstacle: the representatives of the People's Party (NS) have rejected the idea of their partners in power to introduce into the document the item about two chairs in the United Nations. The issue was then handed back to the party leaders. Now the Montenegrin public is awaiting with impatience the meeting of the president of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) Milo Djukanovic, that of the Social Democratic Party (DPS) Zarko Rakcevic and of the People's Party, Dragan Soc.

Montenegrin ruling coalition "For Better Living" has been on the verge of a split for a long time. From without, the status of the People's Party is a mystery: although it is a ruling party - in the government, but also in the parliament and in public appearances, it is acting as an opposition party, quite similar to the Socialist People's Party of Momir Bulatovic. If judged only by the number of statements, one could conclude that the People's Party has drawn its final line. "The minute the new platform is passed by the government by outvoting, we shall leave the coalition", that is the latest promise of vice president of NS Savo Markovic. But this is how the strategy and the tactics, just two days prior to that, at a heated debate in Berane, was explained by his boss Dragan Soc: "We don't want to be politically naïve and leave the government because of some principled stands. Let the principled ones do it because they have violated the regulations. Let them dissolve the government and then explain why they have done it". In any case the possibility should not be discarded that at the meeting of the party leaders a formula will be found for them to stay together. In that direction goes the statement of the chairman of the DPS executive board Miodrag Vukovic. "It's very good that the People's Party doesn't want to step out of the government, which enables the coalition to discharge its duties the citizens have elected us to do. Technically the government can pass the platform even if the People's Party refuses to vote".

Whatever its wishes may be, the People's Party is not capable of hampering the intentions of the Democratic Party of Socialists and the Social Democratic Party to end the job. "In the course of next week the SDP and the DPS will harmonise their stands. Between us, except for insignificant nuances, there are no differences. And the government will pass that document", says Ranko Krivokapic, vice president of the Social Democratic Party.

The experience warns that as long as texts such as this one do not appear in their final version it is not gratifying to foretell what their content will be like. For the time being let us not make evaluations about what the Montenegrin ruling alliance can and will produce as its joint proposal. When its leaders decided to write the new platform it is self-understood that they will wait for the establishment of the new authorities in Serbia after the December elections in order to begin negotiations. As the time for the denouement the month of June next year is mentioned at official addresses.

In the meantime time will pass. For whom? Findings of CEDEM indicate that the number of supporters of independent Montenegro, after the change of the regime in Belgrade, is not decreasing - it amounts to about 65 per cent at this moment. This can encourage and oblige Djukanovic, both as the president of the state and as the head of the election alliance "For Better Living" to take more resolute steps. But there are other developments interesting for observation. The Socialist People's Party (SNP), shot right in the head after Milosevic's fall, supported from Belgrade once again, is slowly standing up again.

And what about pluralism in the Democratic Party of Socialists? "As an entrepreneur, I feel the moral and civil need and obligation to say that any other solution except life with Serbia would be detrimental for Montenegrin economy, and therefrom detrimental for Montenegrin citizens", these are the words addressed to the workers of Niksic steel works in their newspaper called Nasa rijec by their director, deputy and member of the main board of DPS, Miodrag Pejovic. Developments in the field show that he is not the only one. Down at the seaside a true drama has taken place. At a party debate in Petrovac speaking along the line of his own conscience, Vlado Dapcevic, also a member of the main board of DPS from Budva, sharply opposed dissolution of FRY. The persons present, mostly his party comrades, inspired by the party stand that FRY was practically dead, left the meeting place.

“There is no question about a split. The Democratic Party of Socialists is a large party. It is quite normal that its members are reflecting on decisions of the main board and that they are re-examining their personal stands”, explains Miodrag Vukovic. However, this and similar interpretations should be accepted with due caution. Only a traveller in transit through Montenegro would not observe that reflections such as these of Miodrag Pejovic and Vlado Dapcevic have their origin at the very top of DPS. In confidence: ever since the session of the main board when it was decided that Serbia and Montenegro as internationally recognised states should build a new union, chairman of the parliament, Svetozar Marovic was seized with deep creative anger which still continues.

By very logic of the process, all the forces which advocate survival of FRY in its new form, regardless of current party distribution, will draw closer to each other. The time that passes will erase the mutually inflicted scars in ideological controversies during Milosevic's era.

Djukanovic has the majority in party committees and he can prevent such course of development – by causing the crisis of the government and sending the coalition such as it is now into the past. This implies seeking new support in the parliament. The number of deputies from the Liberal League are sufficient to make up for the loss of the People's Party. But this has its price – the end of the game. “We will support a minority government on condition the assembly of Montenegro schedules the referendum with a very precise question: 'Are you in favour of independent, internationally and legally recognised Montenegro which will not enter any state unions in the region?'”, says Miroslav Vickovic, president of the Liberal League.

The demand of the Liberals that the referendum question include the requirement “which will bot enter any state unions in the region” is new and it is essentially a reply to the question which logically results from the conclusions of the main board of DPS: “Are you in favour of Montenegro and Serbia forming a union of independent, internationally recognised states which will have joint defensive, monetary and foreign political jurisdiction”. It is not a difficult job to find a convenient compromising formula. Non-governmental organisation called the Citizens' Initiative has already collected almost 40 thousand signatures for a petition in which the authorities are asked to put a simple question to the citizens: “Are you in favour of Montenegro being an independent, internationally recognised state?” The essence of the problem is, naturally, elsewhere. The question at the referendum is not the matter of artistic impression; it does not precede the essence of the conceived and proposed solutions but results from it. The conclusion of the main Board of DPS is in fact a collection of mutually uncoordinated stands. If the ruling coalition, either whole or rump, does not give up on the idea of advocating “monetary, defensive and foreign political” unity, it has no right to include that product anywhere, least of all in a referendum, in the concept of “independent Montenegro”. And should they persist, the advocates of Montenegrin state independence can do but one thing only, like last year – when this same coalition proposed the other Platform to Milosevic. Practice sorcery.

Esad KOCAN

(AIM)