Hard Road to the Summit in Zagreb

AIM Tirana, November 18, 2000

The visit of EU high representative Javier Solana to Tirana on October 10 does not seem to have given a clear answer to numerous questions arising in Albanian capital concerning the summit conference of the countries of the so-called Western Balkan organised by the EU in Zagreb on November 24. In fact, Solana failed to give an answer to the demand of Albania that an official deadline be set by the EU for the beginning of talks on the agreement on stabilisation and association between Albania and the EU. Albania insisted that it be informed about it at the summit conference in Zagreb. However, the envoy of the EU who had come to Tirana two weeks before the summit just promised that the meeting on such a high level would be a powerful stimulus for all the countries in the region which aim to join the EU.

This seems to have greatly deflated the hopes of Albania that it would get a promise from the EU for the beginning of talks on the agreement on stabilisation and association at the summit conference in Zagreb. On the eve of the summit conference Albania has launched a diplomatic offensive in member-states of the EU in order to ensure support for the achievement of this goal at the gathering in Zagreb. In the focus of this offensive is the demand presented by foreign minister Milo on November 9, who declared that the document which would be adopted at the Zagreb summit conference should include a precise timetable of integration processes of each country, especially in the EU. As part of the offensive, Albanian prime minister Meta travelled to the Netherlands and Italy, president Meidani also visited Italy, and foreign minister visited Paris in order to talk with the French foreign minister Vedrine. France chairs the EU and it is the initiator and the organiser of the summit conference in Zagreb. Milo has also paid short visits to Croatia and Montenegro.

The demand that Brussels set the deadline for the beginning of talks on the agreement on stabilisation and association with Albania relies on a status report of the Albanian government where it is stated what steps Albania had taken to meet conditions necessary for association. In the official declaration of IMF of October 31 it is stated that the macro-economic situation in Albania in the first nine months of 2000 is very favourable with the increase of total production of 7.25 per cent. The estimates in Tirana are that Albania already meets the political, legal, structural criteria required for the beginning of negotiations and it is ready to meet certain other parametres in a short period of time.

From practice applied in the countries of the region it is not quite clear whether the political or the economic criterion was decisive for the beginning of negotiations. Macedonia was told that it would sign the agreement on stabilisation and association with the EU in Zagreb on November 24. In fact Albania was on the threshold of signing such an agreement in 1996, but due to the problems created by the elections held in that year when the Democratic Party was in power, the process was interrupted. The riots that followed in 1997/98 seem to have intensified the reluctance of Brussels in relations with Albania.

It is clear that the EU gives advantage to political stability in the candidate countries. All the officials in Brussels and member countries of the EU, especially on the eve of local elections on October 1 in Albania stressed the condition of democratic elections. Indeed, before the local elections in the statement issued after the meeting of foreign ministers of the EU held on September 18 in Luxembourg it was underlined that neither Bosnia nor Albania had met the conditions for the beginning of negotiations on signing of the agreement on stabilisation and association. These elections have passed like a successful test and the evaluation of the observing delegations of the OSCE, ODIHR and the Council of Europe was that they marked a significant progress in the process of meeting democratic standards and that the noted irregularities had not affected the results. In its statement of October 20, the EU itself determined that both rounds of the elections marked a significant progress in the direction of meeting the OSCE standards.

After the test of the local elections, Tirana was encouraged to intensify its diplomatic efforts towards the EU. In certain directions it seems that the offensive was a success since it resulted in obtaining certain promises from separate states. Italian prime minister Amato promised to Albanian president on November 6 that Italy would be the advocate of Albania in European institutions concerning the beginning of negotiations that would lead to signing of the agreement on stabilisation and association. During his visit to Tirana on November 2, a representative of German foreign ministry Christof Zophel caused enthusiasm in Albanian media with his declaration which exploded like a bomb that Albania would become a member of the EU within ten years. However, the optimism of German minister has not provoked equal optimism in Albanian diplomatic circles which are aware that support of one or two states is not sufficient in an organisation such as the EU in which the consensus of all 15 member states is necessary.

It seems that Albania is now fearing the fact that the attention could shift towards Serbia. Although they welcomed the changes in Serbia Albanian officials expressed certain reservation towards what they call European euphoria. French foreign minister Vedrine has not responded to the Albanian demand for the beginning of negotiations on the agreement on stabilisation and association, but only offered assurances that there was no preferential policy towards Belgrade to the detriment of the interests of the region.

Although this has not been said either in Brussels or in Tirana, it seems that Kosovo is the true obstacle which prevents the EU from promising Albania the beginning of negotiations. It is no secret that Tirana and Brussels do not share the same opinion concerning the status and future of Kosovo. While Milosevic was in power, this was no obstacle for the EU, but now when Kostunica has come to power and when the support offered to him is on the agenda, it seems that it causes concern of the EU which sees the question of the agreement on stabilisation and association as a form of pressure on Tirana concerning the question of Kosovo. Solana has surprised his Albanian hosts in Tirana when he declared that the summit conference in Zagreb would finalise the problems of borders in the region. He did not specify which borders would be discussed or settled in Zagreb, but his statement caused a turmoil among political parties in Tirana increasing further the disturbance and Albanian reluctance concerning the summit.

The bitter taste is still felt in Tirana which was created by the proposal of president Chirac in the month of June, before France had taken over chairing of the EU, for organisation of a summit conference of the EU with the countries of Western Balkan which would gather countries of former Yugoslavia and Albania. Nobody in the EU even tried to clarify why Albania should join the group of countries created on the territory of former Yugoslavia when it had proved several times in history the aspirations of former Yugoslavia that it be included in some kind of a Yugoslav federation. Finally, Tirana has swallowed the clumsy formulation “Western Balkan” because of the fact that the organiser is the EU and because it hoped that the price of its tour until the departure to the summit would be a promise for the beginning of talks on signing the agreement on association and stabilisation.

However, it seems that this would not happen. Neither the presidency of the EU nor the European Commission have given the signal for that, nor is it included in the draft documents of the summit conference. Therefore, Albania is going to Zagreb convinced that it will not get what it deserves and just for the sake of the ritual meeting known in diplomatic practice which are attended just in order not to be separated from others.

AIM Tirana

Arian LEKA