No Unanimity on the Future of Montenegro in the Ruling Coalition

Agreement Not Even in Sight

As continuation of cooperation among the parties seems less and less possible, each of the members of the ruling coalition is preparing for regrouping on Montenegrin political scene and almost imminent referendum on the future of Montenegro

AIM Podgorica, November 17, 2000

Members of Montenegrin ruling coalition "For Better Living" - Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), People's Party (NS) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) - still have not agreed concerning the question of future state and legal status of Montenegro and the destiny of Serbian-Montenegrin federation.

Moreover, it seems that the negotiations of the three-party expert group whose task is to find a solution acceptable to all the members of the coalition have reached a blind alley. After the first meeting held two weeks ago evidently with discouraging results, the continuation of talks was postponed twice already. All things considered, it is not expected to take place until next week.

This intermission was used by everybody for repetition of their previous stands. According to the opinion of the leaders of the People's Party, the best model for reconstruction of the existing state is last-year's platform of the government of Montenegro. The platform prescribed modification of FRY into a confederate community which would preserve its status of an international subject. The Social Democratic Party, however, has in the beginning of this year already proclaimed this platform “obsolete” and insists on independence and international recognition of Montenegro.

Similar disposition prevails in the Democratic Party of Socialists. The main board of this party in the middle of last month adopted main guidelines for future work on reconstruction of FRY. The essence of the DPS party platform is transformation of FRY into a union of Serbia and Montenegro – internationally recognised states and members of the UN. The joint state would be entrusted with defence, monetary and foreign policy.

That the stands of DPS and SDP on the one hand and that of NS are irreconcilable is among other testified by the statement of Predrag Popovic, vice-president of NS. He says that “it is hardly believable that a consensus can be reached in the task group for preparation of a new platform if DPS and SDP do not make concessions in their stands”. And since hardly anybody expects this to happen, NS is slowly turning towards looking for new political partners. “Such cooperation is not impossible even with the Socialist People's Party (SNP), and we are open to cooperation with all the parties which concerning this matter have a similar or identical stand as NS”, Popovic stresses.

Vice-president of SDP Miodrag Ilickovic accuses the Populists of blocking the preparations of the new platform and drafting of the law on referendum. “SDP believes that in the following days everything will be clarified and that the law on referendum should be proposed by the government of Montenegro. The government should also pass by consensus or outvoting the new platform on redefining relations with Serbia”, Ilickovic declared adding that that should be the “moment of decision” when NS would have to make up its mind whether it would remain in the government or not.

“It is essential that this problem be clarified so that we would know whether we shall schedule the referendum or new elections”, concluded Ilickovic.

DPS also remains firmly in its position. “We believe that the union of internationally recognised states is an acceptable solution both for Montenegro and for Serbia and there can be no compromise concerning this essential matter” claims Miodrag Vukovic, president of the Executive Board of DPS. This commitment is confirmed by the “internal party referendum” part of which was the explanation president of Montenegro and DPS Milo Djukanovic gave of the idea of the union of two internationally recognised states at sessions of municipal boards of his party in Bijelo Polje, Berane and Podgorica.

“If the negotiations with Serbia do not succeed, the citizens of Montenegro should declare in a referendum whether they are in favour of the independent state”, stated Djukanovic. “When independence was mentioned the participants of all the three party gatherings responded to Djukanovic by applauding”, Vijesti daily reported.

Since continuation of cooperation among the parties seems less and less possible, every member of the ruling coalition is making preparations for expected regrouping on Montenegrin political scene and almost imminent referendum on the future of Montenegro.

The first step was again made by the Populists. After Vojislav Kostunica had become the president of FRY, NS revived its former relations with Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS). According to AIM's information, only after Vojislav Kostunica had insisted, NS decided not to step out of the government of Montenegro. It is claimed that this plan implies amendment of the Constitution of FRY (return to the one of 1992) and scheduling of new federal elections in spring next year. Advocates of this thesis believe that under pressure of the international community Djukanovic will not be able to reject this plan of preservation of the current federation of Serbia and Montenegro. The role of the Populists is to prevent until then organisation of the referendum at which the Montenegrins would declare whether they are in favour of "Montenegro being a sovereign, internationally recognised state”.

On the other hand, SDP insists on the referendum and intensifies the media campaign which suggests untenableness of the present relations between Montenegro and Serbia. In this sense the youth of this party from Cetinje appealed on their generation in Montenegro not to respond to call-up to do their military service in the Army of Yugoslavia, since the current president of FRY does not recognise the existence of ethnic Montenegrins!

In the meantime, the leadership of DPS intensified its activities in order to win for itself at least the approval of the international community, if not open support for organisation of the referendum. President Djukanovic is blazing the trail in these activities and he will, according to what is announced, present the plan of international recognition of Montenegro and Serbia at the summit in Dayton already.

Nevertheless, the most important political question in Montenegro at the moment is the possibility of reaching any agreement inside the ruling coalition. If it is not reached, there is the possibility of scheduling early parliamentary elections, and yet the possibility that cannot be eliminated either is that minority government of DPS and SDP might win support in the assembly – in the game are the Liberals and the deputies from the ranks of ethnic Albanian parties on condition the referendum on Montenegro's independence is scheduled soon. All things considered, the reply to many questions will be known maybe as soon as the end of this month.

Zoran RADULOVIC

(AIM)