How the People Voted in Herzegovina

Referendum as Pre-Election Promotion of HDZ

AIM Mostar, November 14, 2000

The elections on the territory of Herzegovina, like in the rest of the country, passed regularly, in a correct and fair atmosphere. About 60 per cent of the voters went to the polls, but regardless of the favourable assessment of the organisation, certain irregularities were observed, mostly in the western part of Mostar. When they arrived at the polling stations, a certain number of the voters were faced with an unpleasant surprise that they had already voted (!?), that is, that somebody else had voted instead of them. However, since there had been no mass reports of this phenomenon, it passed unobserved by both the media and the observers.

Simultaneously with the elections, the referendum of the Croat people took place organised by the Croat People's Assembly, a body established by the Croat Democratic Community (HDZ) together with a few minor political parties. Towards the end of the month of October in Novi Travnik, the Assembly had passed a Declaration on the Rights and Position of the Croat people in B&H, and called the citizens of Croat ethnic origin in B&H to declare themselves at the referendum concerning this document. According to the explanations of its advocates, the referendum was organised because of the decision of OSCE on the manner in which deputies in the Chamber of the Peoples of B&H Federal Parliament were to be elected, according to which in canton assemblies deputies for this Chamber are elected by all the deputies and not just deputies of a people concerned.

Many analysts and leaders of political parties estimated that the referendum under auspices of HDZ was a pre-election trick of this party, and that the referendum was indeed used by HDZ for the purpose of its pre-election promotion was testified by the latest statement of Dragan Covic, vice-president of B&H HDZ, who said that “the referendum was the response of HDZ to the challenge of the election competition”. Covic also said that he estimated the decisions of OSCE on the method of election of deputies for the Chamber of the Peoples of B&H Federation in the same manner and he expressed hope that it would be changed. “Since HDZ triumphed in the elections, I believe that reason will prevail among foreign representatives and that the decision will be changed”, said Covic.

And the statement of High Representative Wolfgang Petritsch that Ante Jelavic, the current member of B&H Presidency and president of B&H HDZ, was the only leader in the region opposed to the Dayton agreement, was marked by Covic as “imprudent”. “In the past two years HDZ was the most cooperative of all the parties and the most trustworthy advocate of consistent implementation of Dayton accords. HDZ was only opposed to silent amendment of the Dayton accords and that is why we had to respond with the Croat People's Assembly and the referendum”, said Covic. The reasons which convinced the vice-president of HDZ “that the international community will reach positive decisions are statements of the highest representatives of the international community, Barry and Petritsch who stressed that the implementation must not wait”. HDZ was the first to begin reporting the results of the elections according to which it had won the majority of the votes of the Croat part of the electorate – HDZ won support of 70 per cent of the voters of Croat ethnic origin who had gone to the polls. This fact, although it speaks in favour of HDZ, also shows that this party has lost the plebiscitary confidence of the Croat people it had in all the previous elections. About 70 per cent of the citizens of Croat ethnic origin (according to one source of data, 300 thousand, and according to others, “more optimistic” ones, 350 thousand Croats live in B&H) voted in these elections, and out of that number 70 per cent voted in favour of HDZ, so by a simple calculus, one arrives at the figure of only 50 per cent of the registered voters of Croat ethnic origin who offered their support to HDZ. As an illustration, it should be mentioned that in the last general elections in B&H, in 1998, HDZ won support of 78 per cent of the voters.

As expected in Herzegovina, other parties of right orientation (Croat Party of Right, Croat Christian Democrats, Croat Genuine Party of Right) have not achieved any result at all, and the List of Independent Candidates called “By Work for Progress” headed by co-owner of Lijanovici giant food producing enterprise from Herzegovina, won support of only 10 per cent of the voters.

The advance of Social Democratic Party (SDP) in Herzegovina is evident. In Herzegovina-Neretva Canton, SDP has grown into the party ranking second, immediately after HDZ, because the votes that had previously gone to the Party of Democratic Action (SDA) in that canton were halved in favour of the Party for B&H of Haris Silajdzic. SDP marked a slight growth even in municipalities with Croat majority: in Capljina it won 10 per cent of the votes, and in Neum 6 per cent. What is encouraging is the success of the opposition in the city of Neum where the Croat Peasants' Party, SDP and the Croat Christian Democratic Union (HKDU) won almost 50 per cent of the votes, but due to the votes in favour of HDZ from hinterland of Neum, this result is not visible in the final election score.

The other characteristic of these elections in Herzegovina is that a large number of people disappointed in HDZ, and there are about 30 per cent of them, still have not chosen another party they would support and abstained from the elections, along with a majority of young voters.

Reassured by the victory in places with majority Croat electorate, president of HDZ Ante Jelavic declared after the arrival of election results that “for HDZ and the Croat people after these elections, the mission of the international community is completed”. But, very soon after that, more moderate statements started to arrive from HDZ appealing for quick implementation of election results, but also warning that in case HDZ was evaded in formation of the federal government – as already announced by Kresimir Zubak and Zlatko Lagumdzija – a parliamentary crisis was possible.

Based on these statements it is possible to reach the conclusion that HDZ is indirectly offering an agreement to the international community according to which they would give up on anything linked to the referendum and in return be given guarantees that SDP, SB&H and New Croat Initiative (NHI) would not form the federal government without it. In this sense Covic called Zubak's and Lagumdzija's statements on formation of the government without HDZ and SDA improper and an expression of discontent of these parties because of bad election results. Covic also said that it was “theoretically possible to form the government of B&H Federation without HDZ”, but that this would not “happen because parity is guaranteed in the government of B&H Federation and it cannot be achieved without legitimate representatives of the Croat people elected in the elections”. He also stresses that “coalitions announced by Zubak and Lagumdzija are impossible and that they will not be formed because B&H cannot afford the luxury of a parliamentary crisis”.

Taking all this into account, it is reasonable to believe that the international community will have the final say. If representatives of the international community do not punish HDZ for the referendum and declarations of its leaders during the campaign, and if they change their decision on the election of deputies for the Chamber of the Peoples of the Parliament of B&H Federation, they will prove themselves to be the best partners of HDZ in the elections. Before the elections in 1998, at request of the High Representative, Zubak discharged several officers of the Croat Defence Council, depriving himself of a significant number of votes for it. This year the decision of OSCE on the election of deputies for the Chamber of the Peoples was used by HDZ as the immediate cause of the campaign for additional homogenisation of the Croat people under the pretext that pursuant this decision other peoples will elect the deputies in the Parliament for them. To what extent it was useful for HDZ is illustrated by the fact that before the beginning of this campaign, according to certain public opinion polls, HDZ had the support of only 40 per cent of the Croat part of the electorate in B&H which doubled after the campaign and the elections.

On the other hand, if the international community sticks to the mentioned decision and takes resolute measures against HDZ, it will be faced with a parliamentary crisis in district assemblies, and deputies of HDZ will probably participate neither in the work of the federal nor of the state parliament, but it will also obstruct all the decisions of the central administration on the local level. All this is putting foreign representatives to the test, and it is not easy to predict how they will act. What additionally makes their possible radical moves even more difficult is the obvious success of the Serb Democratic Party (SDS) in Republika Srpska which opens the question whether that party will form the government in that entity. And according to the data collected so far, this is almost certain.

Although the year 2000 cannot be compared with 1990, there is still the possibility that by the will of the international community and possible support of the Party of B&H, SDA and HDZ will form the government in B&H Federation, and SDS will do it in Republika Srpska. This means that SDA, HDZ and SDS continue being in power in B&H.

Zoran Tihic

(AIM Sarajevo)