Electoral Results in B&H Federation - Everybody Claims to Have Won!
Already 24 hours after the closing of polling places after the parliamentary elections in B&H, everyone declared himself a winner. For the time being, only one thing is certain - after ten-year rule, the nationalistic coalition SDS-SDA-HDZ will hardly get a chance to form the government on its own at one level, except perhaps in one number of Cantons.
AIM Sarajevo, November 13, 2000
A day before the elections, the reporters in B&H received an e-mail message with a newspaper report entitled "Even the Leading Media Burned their Fingers" (which spoke about the behaviour of the American media just before the elections there) accompanied by a message: "All the best in covering the B&H elections".
In the first place, according to OSCE much over one half of the electorate turned out for the elections, perhaps even more that for the communal ones. On the other hand, according to unofficial results which are mostly supplied by political parties, i.e. their observers at vote-counting places - there is much reason for reporters to exercise caution. Both SDA and HDZ, as well as SDP B&H claim to have won, the Party for B&H is emphasising good results it has scored, while SDS is already "celebrating" its victory in the Republic of Srpska. The extent of the confusion on the political pre-election scene is best illustrated by contradictions that are coming from the Republic of Srpska - according to some sources SDS's presidential candidate Mirko Sarovic has won 37 percent of votes, while judging by others as much as 63 percent!?
"Some are encouraged by the fact that they have not fared as badly as they expected" says Zlatko Lagumdzija, President of SDP B&H, adding that he was surprised by data of the political parties electoral headquarters supplied after the counting of a very small number of voting slips. And indeed – a major task is yet ahead of the "vote-counters" - they have to count votes from three slips (for the state, entity and cantonal level) per each voters, and then count votes for each electoral unit, then those cast in absentia and those sent by mail from abroad.
SDA claims to have won seven to eight thousand votes more than SDP B&H. It claims that it is the strongest political party in the territory of B&H Federation and B&H as a whole, and according to its own unofficial results, it has won the majority in the Una-Sana, Central-Bosnia, Zenica-Doboj, Bosnia-Podrinje and Herzegovina-Neretva Cantons, while it is still not sure in its victory in the Sarajevo Canton, but is certainly close to winning, say SDA sources. At the same time, it has announced the possibility of forming a coalition with the Party for B&H and other pro-Bosniac parties.
SDP B&H claims that, after one fifth of votes in the territory of B&H Federation has been counted, it is evident that it is the strongest party in B&H and B&H Federation as well, and that out of total number of 120 seats it expects to get 50 delegate seats in the Federal Parliament, and in the state Parliament 22 out of total 42 seats. In its opinion it has scored a convincing victory in the Sarajevo Canton, while in the Tuzla Canton it has the same number of votes as SDA and the Party for B&H together, that similar situation is in the Una-Sana Canton, while in the Gorazde and Zenica-Doboj Cantons it came second, just behind the Party for B&H. In any case, SDA, SDA and HDZ will no longer have the majority in the authorities, says Zlatko Lagumdzija, President of SDP B&H.
About 70 percent of the Croatian voters have turned out for the elections. "HDZ has won in the Croatian electorate in B&H and in five Cantons," says Zoran Tomic spokesman for this party. In his opinion HDZ B&H is stronger than it was two years ago. However, serious sanctions are probably awaiting this party - despite warnings of the international community on the day of the elections it held the announced referendum among the Croatian people in B&H. This Party's President and also currently a member of the Presidency of B&H, Ante Jelavic stated that with the victory of his party mandates of Robert Barry, Jacques Paul Klein and Wolfgang Petritsch in B&H have expired. This statement caused a great concern of many representatives of the international community and Jelavic will probably hear his "lesson". Namely, he has already been officially marked as "the only politician in the region opposing the Dayton Peace Accords".
The New Croatian Initiative - party of the former Croatian member of B&H Presidency, Kresimir Zubak, is also pleased - it has fared better than this April, stating that if "HDZ B&H again wins this time, it can only feel sorry for the people".
The Party for B&H also thinks that it has won in the Sarajevo Canton and Bosnia-Podrinje Canton, where according to its data gathered on the basis of votes counted until Sunday morning, it has won over one third. It also registered good results in the Cantons of Central Bosnia, Zenica-Doboj and Tuzla.
The so called small parties are practically non-existent, they appeared only "in traces" at the counting, as they also did after the April elections. At first glance, it seems that this is only the confirmation of the results of April elections. The only change for the better was registered by the Party for B&H which got the votes of all those who wanted to vote for SDA, because the forceful anti-campaign SDA conducted against SDP B&H, scared them away and they did not dare vote for SDP.
In the end everyone is satisfied, SDA and HDZ, as well as SDS, but also SDP B&H, NHI and SNSD. Also satisfied are the frontmen of the international community: Ambassador Robert Barry, first man of the OSCE Mission in B&H, and the High Representative for B&H, Wolfgang Petritsch. "B&H is ready to organise the election process on its own", said Ambassador Berry urging political parties to establish the authorities at all levels at the soonest possible time: "We cannot afford to be late", said Berry. Petritsch reminded that "B&H cannot allow itself to get a 'caretaker government' which spends time and money while in countries around us trains for Europe continue to run ".
Just before the elections a possibility was mentioned that the High Representative might promulgate the law on the establishment of Governments in B&H, but since the elections have passed, there is less talk about such a possibility as rather "colourful" results are expected. Thus, the formation of the Government will fall on the back of local political parties and depend on their ability to agree or regroup. For the time being, it is clear that the uncertainty is great and will remain such as long as the distribution of the last compensatory mandate becomes known, in other words, parties which do not win "full" delegate seat in separate electoral units after counting of votes can win the sum of votes required for one delegate seat (in the unit in which they won the greatest number of votes). However, then parties will have to reach post-electoral agreements.
As AIM unofficially learned, SDA has already offered the Party for B&H a coalition. At the same time, the Party for B&H announced that it would not join any coalition, but again AIM found out, true also unofficially, that this party informed SDA of its conditions - equal distribution of functions in executive authorities and elimination of the current federal Prime Minister Edhem Bicakcic from public political life. But, knowing that SDA has been in coalition with SDS and HDZ for ten years now, it is hard to believe that the Party for B&H would agree to such a coalition. In any case, how would it explain such a move to its voters since new elections are only two years away? On the other hand, there is a possibility of SDP B&H joining a coalition with the Party for B&H in some cantons. Certain inter-ethnic coalitions might be also expected at the state and entity level if that would secure them a majority - for example, between SDP B&H and Milorad Dodik's Party of Independent Social-Democrats and Party of Social Prosperity of Mladen Ivancic. Namely, this could be the only way to overpower the trilateral nationalistic coalition in the formation of executive authorities.
And while voting slips are being counted and parties are trying to agree or are making plans, the Provisional Electoral Commission (PIK), the Appellate Electoral Sub-Commission (APK) and the Independent Media Commission (IMC) have their hands full with complaints - those submitted against parties, as well as the media. The figure of 150 complaints of various "gravity" is mentioned. They have come to OSCE's PIK and APK, while IMC is still processing the data and has yet to submit its final report.
In the shadow of post-electoral developments, the set of laws which immediately after the elections the High Representative promulgated, passed somehow unnoticed - the Law on the State Court, laws on pension and disability insurance (according to which the lowest pensions in B&H Federation would be 117 KM, and in the Republic of Srpska 80 KM), federal law on the joining of Mostar and Sarajevo pension funds, six state laws on the coordination of standardisation, metrology, measuring and accrediting systems in B&H, and the Labour Relations Law for the Republic of Srpska. According to some analysts, this move of the High Representative has nothing to do with the election results (the laws were simply finished and the post-election "peace" was the right moment for their promulgation), while the others it is closely linked to the election results.
Another elections are now behind B&H! Everyone is celebrating! It has been promised that final election results will be known on November 17- how many of which in which legislative body, whose government at which level, etc.: "Citizens of this country are sending a signal that this is a democracy which is maturing and which they care for...everyone elected will be faced with a hard struggle - the return of refugees, difficult economic situation, strengthening of state institutions", said Petritsch immediately after the elections. For some it will not be so hard, since there are only two years until the next elections!
Hana BAJRAKTAREVIC
(AIM Sarajevo)