Opinion Poll: SDS or PDP?

AIM Banja Luka, November 1, 2000

Two latest public opinion polls conducted among the electorate of the Republic of Srpska (RS), which according to its authors represent a reliable sample, gave two completely different set of results. According to the survey of the American National Democratic Institute (NDI), whose pre-electoral probings carried out so far proved very accurate, the Serbian Democratic Party (SDS) will be the winner of these elections in RS.

According to the second, out of the total number of three planned rounds of interviews (published for internal use on October 20), at the election of deputies to the RS National Assembly, SDS will get 48 percent of votes, which is a 10 percent increase in relation to local elections of this April. The survey of August 25, showed that 44 percent of the electorate would vote for SDS. A month later, this figure stopped at 47 percent.

The second on popularity list is Mladen Ivanic's Party of Democratic Progress (PDP) with 20 percent of votes, while Milorad Dodik's Party of Independent Social-Democrats won only 3 percent, followed by SDP of B&H and the Serbian National Alliance (SNS) 2 percent, each.

According to the results of the NDI's poll on the presidential candidates' rating, the SDS presidential candidate Mirko Sarovic was convincingly the first. According to the latest survey of October 15, as many as 54 percent of voters would place their trust in Sarovic. In relation to August 25, Sarovic's popularity decreased (58 percent), but rose by one percent compared to September 25 (53 percent). Only 25 percent of the pollees voted for Milorad Dodik as second presidential favourite, which is only 4 percent more than a totally anonymous PDP presidential candidate Momcilo Tepic got.

The pollees have shown an interesting relation toward the possibility of preferential choice. As many as 77 percent of interviewees do not want to make the second preferential choice, which means that candidates should not count on these votes. Also a certain change in the motive behind voters' choice was registered: the number of those motivated by the "protection of national interests" has gone down, while those motivated by the possibility of getting employment has grown.

The researchers point to the fact that there was a very small number of Bosniacs and Croats in the sample, which is why the results should be slightly adjusted. It is estimated that about 170 thousand of Bosniacs and Croats might turn out at these elections in RS, which is why the number of votes which RS parties and Serbian candidates might win, could be significantly lower.

The second survey recently conducted by the magazine "Business Press" in 25 RS municipalities on the sample of 2,322 pollees, showed that Mladen Ivanic's PDP was leading with 35.27 percent of votes. In Banjaluka and Bijeljina, two largest urban centres, PDP got 40 percent of votes more than all other parties. According to this poll, Prime Minister Dodik's SNSD came second with 24.03 percent of votes and SDS third with 20.37 percent.

Although the organisers of this survey referred to three University professors - one sociologist and two jurists, who are also judges of the Constitutional Court, who have supervised the regularity, many think that this research should be taken with a pinch of salt because of the anonymity of the research team and their lack of experience with the processing the poll results.

However, no matter how different the results of these two surveys might be, both point to the trend of the PDP's growing popularity. First, this is a totally new political party which rallies undiscredited people who speak the language of economic reforms. PDP is led by a University professor of economy recognisable by his stands on the national question, an advocate of economic reforms, experienced in politics and well-known to the public. He earned his greatest political capital three years ago when he returned the mandate of the RS Prime Minister to President Biljana Plavsic, for failing to reach an agreement with leaders of political parties on the composition of Government of political unity.

Second, one should not lose sight of the changes in Croatia and Serbia. Political options that came to power there have managed to impose a political model which synthesises both democratic and national elements, which can be painlessly adopted in RS as a democratic alternative. Because of his clearly defined national stand, PDP leader, Mladen Ivanic has become a personification of precisely that model of politics.

The explanation of the PDP's advantage over Prime Minister Dodik's SNSD is that PDP and Ivanic have not been in power and are not in the least responsible for the current situation in the society and economy. Dodik tried to turn this "shortcoming" into advantage persistently reminding the voters how many bridges, water supply systems and schools he had built forgetting that the electorate takes the success for granted and doesn't even want to see it, but very well sees all faults and failures.

Finally, it should not be forgotten that even before Dodik, Ivanic met with the newly elected President of Yugoslavia Vojislav Kostunica in Belgrade and talked to several DOS leaders and that he had been on good terms with economists from the G-17.

Dodik's greatest sin, which could be the main reason for his electoral fiasco, is his relation to crime and corruption. His stubborn persuading of the public that there was no crime in the top ranks was the greatestfailure of his electoral campaign even if that claim were true. The voters, who saw daily examples of corruption and with the media reporting on great scandals, interpreted this message as a shameless scam of the authorities which refused to acknowledge what everybody saw.

It is simply unbelievable how Dodik and his electoral headquarters ignored crime and corruption forgetting the fact that the international community had joined the campaign against corruption openly sending a message "let's outvote the corruption". This message was nothing else but a call to the electorate not to vote for the political team in power, which by definition, can only be responsible for the corruption of the society at large.

On the other hand, the unreserved support which representatives of the international community give to Dodik, obviously produces an opposite effect among the electorate. The unnecessary and excessive supportive behaviour is accompanied by moves which undermine his authority, create confusion and doubts as to the good intentions of those behind him. The introduction of uniform passport just before the elections, story about a joint army, official opening of a mosque in Prijedor and the announced erecting of the monument to the Srebrenica victims, as well as tolerance of anti-Dayton messages of some political parties and leaders in Bosnia & Herzegovina Federation, have been deftly used by Dodik's opponents in the electoral campaign as an argument that Dodik is but a puppet in RS and that through him the international community was working on the unitarisation of B&H.

In other words, the polls show that choosing between SDS and SNSD voters will vote for PDP hoping thereby to preserve the required measure of national character and, at the same time, to show their democratic maturity as was demonstrated by the opposition in Croatia and Serbia. When it comes to choosing between Dodik and Sarovic, Sarovic might easily be the men of voters' choice who are convinced that in this way they could strike a counter-balance to national options in the Federation of B&H. Dodik will foot the bill of such a compromise, but can find comfort in remembering the similar fate of Churchill and de Gaulle.

Branko Peric

(AIM)