Haggling About Constitutional Prerogatives

AIM Zagreb, October 23, 2000

Croatian political leadership has quarrelled again about Constitutional amendments. With the approaching of the finish, conflicts are increasingly open and bitter. It is feared that disagreements might lead to a split in the six-member ruling coalition.

True to their election promises, amendments of the Constitution were initiated with their signatures by Stjepan Mesic, president of the Republic, and Ivica Racan, prime minister, a few months ago. But when the draft amendments were sent into the procedure, the head of the state felt cheated. The charged assembly committee, supported by the government, drastically reduced his prerogatives. Mesic made a resolute move – relying on his main trump card, strong support of the public, in a long letter, he demanded from the assembly that almost all his prerogatives be left to him, even the one on being entitled to be called the state leader which he gladly mocked at while he was in the opposition. The long list is probably the offer for bargaining. Mesic is demanding everything on it – in order to get what he really cares for. And he cares for, as he has been claiming all the time, three things: command of the army which nobody questions, control of secret services which will be regulated by the law, and co-creating of foreign policy which he is almost completely deprived of by the draft Constitutional amendments.

What will happen next? The president of the Republic cannot impose his demands on the parliament, but it seems that the drafted Constitutional amendments cannot be passed past his will. Neither of the possibilities Mesic has at his disposal – dissolution of the government or scheduling of a referendum – are feasible. It is not probable that the ruling coalition can collect a sufficient number of votes for the questioned draft. It is more probable that it will split in the vote. It, therefore, seems that only one thing is for sure: that none of the opposed possibilities can be passed.

There is no doubt that Croatia declared itself against Tudjman's presidential system, it opted for parliamentarism. But what that actually means was not specified at the time. Generally speaking, it was clear that the role of the assembly and the government had to be reinforced at the expense of presidential prerogatives. In the past nine months it turned out that Tudjman's and Mesic's presidential systems were not the same. The former president by far exceeded the prerogatives given to him by the Constitution, and the current president does not usurp his post in that manner. In the past nine months it also tuned out that the government was weak and wavering. The weakness is the result of its systematically being pushed aside, and the wavering is the result of its personnel composition. It is certain that its role can be reinforced by the Constitution, but the question is to what extent. The prime minister would like to have prerogatives of a chancellor, he believes that that would make him more efficient. Analysts, on the other hand, note that he does not even know what to do with the existing prerogatives, he has difficulties making decisions, so that the stimuli which have lately occasionally arrived from Pantovcak, from the head of the state, were precious. This possibility should not be eliminated by Constitutional amendments. It is widely believed that Racan's cabinet should not be given the freedom to set its own rate of activities.

President Mesic has shown that in crucial situations he reacts like a true statesman capable of making a move which nobody else has the courage to make. His recent decision to pension off a few generals who addressed the public with a special letter which was a specific political demonstration, saved Croatia from a very dangerous situation. This letter was a part of the campaign of the rightists against the authorities and suggested that a part of the army was scheming a rebellion. Mesic's decision on retirement of generals cut these preparations short. But it was received with great reservation by the ruling coalition. Minister of defence Rados or prime minister Racan would have never made such a decision. To deprive the head of the state of the possibility of such reactions and turn him, as he says, into a decorative plant – is not smart. But Mesic's demand to keep the anachronous title of the state leader did not meet with approval of the public. Indeed, it turned out to be counter-productive.

All things considered, the conflict caused by the content of Constitutional amendments between the president and the government will result in a compromise. Prime minister Racan claims that in the elections the Croats have chosen parliamentary system and that his government must fulfill this promise. This sounds very nice, but that very same government is not acting so consistently when other election promises are concerned. Mesic, however, claims that – if an agreement is not reached – he will have no reason to protect the government any more. This could be extremely uncomfortable for Racan's cabinet. The public is quite dissatisfied with the performance of the government, and Mesic is quite popular. His support has proved to be very important in certain delicate situations for the prime minister.

The public is not exactly engrossed in the business of amending the Constitution. First, because ordinary people believe that at this moment it is not the most important problem of Croatia, that it is much more important to initiate economic reform and pull the country out of the crisis which is deepening every day. Conflicts concerning the Constitution are moving it away from that priority. Second, the public is discontented because the debate on Constitutional amendments can be brought down to nothing but struggle for predominance. In the ruling circles they look upon the amendments mostly as a means for redistribution of power. That is why they act as if the contents of the Constitution is solely in their zone of interest. Both parties at daggers drawn because of the Constitution act as if the only important thing is who will be the first man in the state – the president of the Republic or its prime minister. Finding a balanced model of operation of the state is less important for them. Proclaimed strengthening of the role of the assembly is not mentioned any more. Experts observe that an attempt is being made to adjust the Constitution to the existing relation of forces in state leadership, so they announce that the amendments which are the subject of negotiations will not last long. Their forecast is that with the change of the regime the Constitution will have to be amended again.

Jelena Lovric

(AIM)