Public Opinion in Montenegro

Majority in Favour of Referendum and International Recognition

According to an October investigation which was carried out as part of the project "Public Opinion in Montenegro in 2000", three quarters of the citizens wish for the referendum, and two thirds of the citizens of Montenegro are in favour of some form of state sovereignty

AIM Podgorica, November 1, 2000

If the decision of the majority in Montenegro were respected, the referendum on its state and legal status would be scheduled in a very foreseeable future. The preliminary results of the investigation that took place between October 15 and 23 and which was carried out for the needs of the Centre for Democracy and Human Rights (CEDEM) by Damar agency show that three quarters of the citizens of Montenegro wish that the question of the future status of their state be resolved by referendum.

Almost half of 1453 subjects from eight biggest Montenegrin municipalities: Berane, Bijelo Polje, Bar, Pljevlje, Herceg Novi, Niksic, Podgorica and Cetinje, or more precisely 43.7 per cent, believe that the referendum is "the only logical move", while additional 31.2 per cent also believe in referendum, but they think that it should be postponed until the completion of the announced Serbian-Montenegrin negotiations. On the other hand, only 17.8 per cent of the pollees are against the referendum and believe that "despite everything Montenegro must remain in the union with Serbia without alternative and preconditions".

When the state status of Montenegro is concerned the latest data also show that there is the largest number of those who wish its full independence (36.8 per cent). Followers of the idea of a union of states of Montenegro and Serbia founded on the platform of the government of Montenegro rank second (26.1 per cent). The citizens of Montenegro who see their future in the present FRY rank third (19 per cent). And among the participants in the poll there are ten per cent of those who advocate unitary federal community according to the formula "one president, one parliament...".

The fact that is comparatively surprising is that the results of this poll, when state and legal status of Montenegro is concerned, are almost identical to those of the investigation carried out in April this year - deviations amount to one per cent. This mean that the big political changes in Belgrade and departure of Slobodan Milosevic from the (public) political scene have not affected the disposition of Montenegrin public to which the joint state with Serbia is neither closer nor further away than it was during Milosevic's era. However, there are certain obvious changes which might lead to new regrouping on Montenegrin political scene.

Results of CEDEM's investigation outline quite clearly the profile both of the advocates of Montenegrin independence and supporters of a joint state. The most interesting is the fact that, along with members and sympathisers of Liberal League of Montenegro (LSPG) and Social Democratic Party (SDP), the traditional supporters of Montenegrin independence, supporters of Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) have also made up their minds. More than half of the participants in the poll who give (or will give) their votes to DPS are in favour of the referendum (immediately – 57.3 per cent, after negotiations with Serbia

• additional 36.4 per cent) and sovereign Montenegro (54.3 per cent). The platform of the government of Montenegro ranks second as an option of the future state and legal status of this Republic. Among the supporters of DPS this project enjoys the support of 36.8 per cent of the pollees. That less and less supporters of DPS see the joint state of Serbia and Montenegro as the optimum solution is also illustrated by the fact that almost two thirds of the followers of the strongest Montenegrin party do not believe that there is a kindred political group in Serbia. Among the voters of DPS who participated in the poll 48.3 per cent chose the answer “none are close to me”, and 11.3 per cent “do not know” which is the closest political option in Serbia.

On the other hand, followers of Socialist People's Party (SNP) still recognise Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) (51.9 per cent) as the closest party, although a sudden rise of popularity of Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) of Vojislav Kostunica is also evident (25.1 per cent of sympathisers of SNP believe that this is their closest party in Serbia). Large differences are visible concerning other significant questions. The present FRY is supported by 54.8 per cent of supporters of SNP. Advocates of unitarianism follow. There are 28 per cent of them in SNP. At the same time, almost half of the supporters of this party – more precisely 49 per cent – are against the referendum. Supporters of SNP who believe that it is necessary to wait with the referendum follow (23.4 per cent), along with those who believe that it should be organised as the “only logical move” – 20.1 per cent.

Differences are also visible when ethnic origin of the pollees is taken into account. While majority of Montenegrins advocate the referendum and sovereignty (49.7 and 53 per cent respectively), the Serbs who live in Montenegro wish for preservation of FRY (38.1 per cent) and are against the referendum (42.6 per cent). At the same time, a quarter of the Serbs who participated in the poll consider a unitary state the best model of future community.

The perceived division pro and con the referendum, that is, independence, and political commitment of these two options indicate the possibility of creation of a “pro-Montenegrin” and a “pro-Yugoslav” (“pro-Serb”) block on the political scene of Montenegro. The former might gather supporters of DPS, LSCG and SDP (at this moment the rating of these parties shows that they have 30.2, 8.5 and 6.3 per cent, respectively) and the other of SNP and NS (23.9 and 3.3 per cent, respectively).

And when political processes within Montenegro are concerned, it is interesting to note that for the first time this year Svetozar Marovic is not the most popular Montenegrin politician. The primacy on the popularity list is taken over by Milo Djukanovic, and the results of the investigation show that this change at the top is the result of the decline of Marovic's popularity in his own party. For example, while in April 61.1 per cent of the followers of DPS awarded Marovic with the maximum grade, this time only 46 per cent of the supporters of this party did it. Many analysts are ready to put this change in the context of declaration on the future of the state of Montenegro, corroborating their statement by the datum on the increase of the number of members and supporters of DPS who are in favour of independence and the fact that Svetozar Marovic is perceived as the leader of the party wing which opposes such efforts.

The results of the investigation of popularity of certain politicians in Montenegro show at the same time that supporters of the “pro-Yugoslav” option seek their leader outside Montenegro again. After Slobodan Milosevic, now it is Vojislav Kostunica who is more popular in Montenegro than the leaders of SNP and NS which advocate preservation of Serbian-Montenegrin federation. It seems that in the part of Montenegrin public the cult of the “leader from Belgrade” is still cherished, regardless of his name and political commitments.

Zoran RADULOVIC

(AIM)