Montenegrin View of the Union with Serbia

Each One for Oneself

The main board of Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) has definitely opted for creation of a union of two previously internationally recognised states of Montenegro and Serbia. A day later, in Belgrade, prime minister Vujanovic and chairman of the assembly Marovic said that this was not an ultimatum. Does this mean that DPS in fact does not know what it wants, or is it just a part of the old game of running with the hare and hunting with the hounds

AIM Podgorica, October 28, 2000

To be near, yet far enough – this is the new formula of togetherness leadership of Democratic Party of Socialists, the most powerful and the most influential member of Montenegrin ruling coalition, has offered to its political partners in Belgrade, Democratic Opposition of Serbia.

The main board of DPS, having debated for several hours, reached the conclusion that it was best for Serbia and Montenegro to arrange their future relations “on the principle of a union of internationally recognised states of Montenegro and Serbia, with precisely determined joint functions”. Two internationally recognised states according to the newly discovered formula, would have joint monetary, foreign political and defensive function.

President of the Executive Board of DPS Miodrag Vukovic explained that the motives for additional reduction of Montenegrin-Serbian unity in relation to the solutions in the platform of Montenegrin government proposed in August last year, were in the “negative experience in functioning of the existing union” and in the “sincere wish that these relations be established on the principles which will not depend on the momentary political will either in Montenegro or in Serbia, nor will they be subject to abuse by any structure”.

As it was explained, DPS is ready to wait for constitution of the “new democratic government of Serbia” with which Montenegrin government would come to terms of a final proposal of the future union of two internationally recognised states. And then the citizens of both Montenegro and Serbia would declared their stand about it in a referendum.

Without having slept, immediately after the session of the party main board, the two vice-presidents of DPS Svetozar Marovic and Filip Vujanovic flew to Belgrade to a session with a group of leaders of DOS. The tangible result of that meeting was the agreement to establish an expert group which will be entrusted with the task “to set the platform for future talks”. Besides, the meeting has revealed that Montenegrin party, that is DPS, did not intend to stick to its offer so that it would turn out to be an ultimatum.

“We are ready to find a joint solution, to reach an agreement in the interest of the citizens of Serbia and Montenegro and the union of two republics”, said Filip Vujanovic, without revealing what part in the offer of his party it would not insist on at any cost.

The formula of the future Montenegrin-Serbian union conceived by Djukanovic' Socialists in the past few days is “a big step forward” in the relation to the one contained in the Platform of Montenegrin government from August last year – it is a step forward in the sense of further loosening of connections between Montenegro and Serbia. That is how it was perceived by Zarko Rakcevic, president of Social Democratic Party (SDP) which is the coalition partner of DPS and which prefers a pure variant of Montenegrin state independence. But this step forward is insufficient for the independists such as Montenegrin Liberals.

At the same time the proposal is too “impudent” from the standpoint of People's Party, the other coalition partner of DPS. It turns out that Djukanovic's Socialists have once again remained true to themselves in the search of a middle road. They have not given up togetherness with Serbia, but with one foot they remained dug in on positions of Montenegrin state independence insisting on Montenegro's entering the future union as an internationally recognised state. It would be the least painful for them if that would be approved by new Serbian authorities.

By having decided to be both here and there, the leadership of DPS has obviously tried to reconcile differences within itself, but also within its own membership and electorate which is divided into those who are in favour of independent Montenegro and those who are in favour of a confederation with Serbia. Besides, the leadership probably did not wish to irritate European and American friends with maximalistic demands, because they had not manifested enthusiasm whenever Montenegro's becoming an independent state was mentioned.

Montenegrin president Milo Djukanovic and his party comrades have an impending battle on three fronts. At home, in Montenegro, it must persuade its coalition partners to further cooperation and, therefrom, have the government make its view of future Montenegrin-Serbian relations official. In Belgrade they must struggle against the arguments of the leaders and experts of DOS, and in talks with representatives of international community they will have to be extremely persuasive in defending their standpoints.

At home, DPS already has difficulties because People's Party is seriously annoyed by the very idea of Podgorica suggesting to Belgrade the possibility of double membership in international organisations and institutions. The Populists even threatened that they would quit coalition cooperation if the platform of DPS became official, in case of which Montenegrin government would lose majority support in the parliament. Overcoming this problem by silent or open support of the Liberal League is not probable after negative reactions of its leadership to the conclusions reached by the main board of DPS.

It is also an open question whether Social Democratic Party will maintain its fully benevolent stand concerning the idea of Djukanovic's Socialists, especially if they decide to be too indulgent in negotiations in Belgrade. DPS might be forced to choose between early parliamentary elections and having to conclude a pact with its irreconcilable political opponents – Socialist People's Party of Momir Bulatovic.

At the moment it is impossible to estimate with certainty how impressed leaders of DOS are with what Podgorica is offering them and whether they are ready to agree to the variant of a union according to which Montenegro and Serbia would be internationally recognised states. However, it is more likely that such a possibility is not to the liking of the new Serbian political elite than that it is. Besides, they obviously count on the international community rejecting Montenegrin demands as improper and unwise.

This can be guessed from the readiness to squeeze FRY into the United Nations and other international organisations and institutions despite reservations of Montenegro and before it made any agreement with Belgrade.

What irreconcilable advocates of Montenegrin state independence rightfully fear is that, like on the eve of creation of FR Yugoslavia, Montenegrin authorities (whoever may form it then) will give up on maximalistic demands and agree to a compromise which will, of course, ensure a much better position for Montenegro than it had so far, but that it will not make it an internationally recognised state.

The gravest complaint in this connection is the one that there is danger that Montenegrin and Serbian ruling political elites will reach an agreement again on state unity, placing the citizens of both Montenegro and Serbia before an accomplished fact. The regime can always influence the outcome of subsequent referendum to the extent to make it in its favour.

It is obvious that we will have to wait for the denouement for some time, but according to what will be happening in the days that will follow it will become clearer what this denouement could be like.

Dragoljub VUKOVIC

(AIM)