Fear of Marginalisation

It was with a sense of great relief that Macedonia welcomed Milosevic's stepping down from the position of the FRY President. But, when the emotions cooled down, somewhat more concerned comments could be heard.

AIM Skopje, October 11, 2000

In the last couple of months the citizens of Macedonia were preoccupied with their own local elections which, as it turned out, were no less dramatic than those in the neighbouring Yugoslavia. Irrespective of this fact, they followed out of the corner of their eyes everything that went on in the North. Macedonia's top state leadership reacted with silence at Vojislav Kostunica's victory in the first electoral round which most of the world recognised. Only on the eve of October 5, which in all probability will go down in history, did President of the Republic Boris Trajkovski, issue a rather anaemic declaration that was supposed to stimulate the Yugoslav neighbours to support the peaceful democratic denouement in Belgrade.

When it became clear that Milosevic was really gone, the officials in Skoplje became much more talkative. They showered with congratulations the new FRY President, Vojislav Kostunica. And while the Macedonian politicians in unison sang an "ode" to the new FRY President hoping for better cooperation, leader of the Democratic Party of the Albanians Arben Xhaferi commented that Milosevic was better!? "Kostunica is a hardened nationalist" said Xhaferi.

The local analysts interpreted this with Xhaferi's fear that "the value of his shares was falling" and that the "Albanian question" could be globally returned to Belgrade, while the international community might start "washing its hands" of the Kosovo problem. On the other hand, some analysts believe that leaders of the Albanians' parties and their allies in Kosovo might increase pressure on the authorities in Skoplje and it is in that context that they have placed the recent announcement of the DPA leader Menduh Thaqi on the intensification of efforts for ensuring a more equitable position of the Albanians.

Diplomatic circles in Skoplje expect the question of borders to be finally taken off the agenda which is why experts of FR Yugoslavia and Macedonia have met 11 times in the past four years. In all fairness, 90 percent of the work has been finished, but the hardest thing remains to be done - resolution of several disputable points. Diplomats will have to demonstrate more good will than diplomatic skill in order to finally resolve this open problem.

Among diplomatic problems with which a breakthrough could be made, is certainly the question of succession concerning which Macedonia will act together with Croatia, Slovenia and Bosnia&Herzegovina until they find out what will be the stand of the new Belgrade regime. Chief of state Boris Trajkovski and Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski have publicly pleaded for the urgent lifting of sanctions against Belgrade which, at the very least, sounds paradoxical since many Macedonian firms have lived off the semi-legal trade with FR Yugoslavia. Recently the public learned that the Macedonian firms have, more or less, observed only the oil embargo imposed against Belgrade.In any case, newspapers have often written about partners from the other side of the northern border which used the Macedonian firms for "money laundering".

Businessmen who follow the events in the neighbourhood with understandable attention, believe that changes in FR Yugoslavia will, nevertheless, have positive effect on the Macedonian economy which, in the last ten years or so, has strongly felt the negative consequences of upheavals on the worth. Optimistically Borko Andreev, Minister of the Economy, said that the Macedonian economy would reap only benefits from the democratic processes in Yugoslavia, although it will face intensified competition. Similar was the view of experts in the Chamber of Commerce of Macedonia. They said that the establishment of healthy competitive relations would only increase cooperation. "Macedonia is not nostalgic for Yugoslavia, but it is nostalgic for its market", said the President of the Chamber, Dusan Petrevski, adding that "the lifting of economic sanctions against FRY will mean a competitive challenge for the Macedonian business, which the economy must not be afraid of".

Already three years ago Macedonia and FR Yugoslavia have signed a free-trade agreement, but it functioned more or less on paper only because, little by little, Belgrade introduced economic measures which gave the Macedonian business community a hard time. The presumed opening of the North-South corridor raises great hopes as the most profitable way for Macedonia's linking with the world. Despite all recent political interpretations that the North-South corridor is replaceable, practice has shown that this is only wishful thinking.

It is feared that after changes in FRY the investors will now rush into Yugoslavia, with its ten million inhabitants, and forget or steer clear of the Macedonian economy, with only two million people. Bodo Hombach, the first man of the Stability Pact, tried to dispel such misgivings by stating that additional resources would be allocated to Serbia and that Macedonia would still get those promised and allocated to it within the Pact.

"I am sure that all countries of the region, including Macedonia, will profit from changes that have occurred in Yugoslavia, because foreign investors observe the situation as a whole. When a crisis occurs at any point in the region, then it doesn't make any difference whether it is happening here or there. After all hotbeds of crisis are removed, the greater the unity in the region the greater will be the chances for this entire area", said Hombach.

Despite all expectations for changes in the FRY to positively reflect on the national economy, individual economic experts claim that that would happen only after the establishment of political relations, which will happen in a year or two.

Else, from January till late August this year, commodity exchange between Macedonia and Yugoslavia amounted to USD 220 million, excluding the Kosovo market. Macedonian experts estimate that under new circumstances, it could amount to as much as one billion per annum, convinced that it would happen already next year.

Fears that a part of the Belgrade underg round could move to Macedonian streets have increased because the new regime could be expected to deal more rigorously with the crime. Police experts do not rule out a possibility that criminals, mobsters, war criminals and individual members of the Serbian Intelligence and State Security Services would try to find shelter in Macedonia. All the more so because Macedonia and Yugoslavia have not signed mutual agreement on extradition, and cooperation between security structures of the two countries is non-existent.

"All those who fear that they might have to answer for their heinous crimes committed in Yugoslavia, and who will not manage to find a common language with the new authorities will try to get to Macedonia. We shall surely not see convoys of suspicious types and criminals at border crossings between Macedonia and Yugoslavia. They will come individually, in luxury cars and will most probably present themselves as businessmen", Ministry of the Interior said.

This country is an ideal location for this category of people because it is Yugoslavia's closest neighbour and the Macedonian language is easier to understand. Apart from "businessmen" and "deposed" Serbian intelligence officers, criminals who want to avoid prison in Yugoslavia will also certainly seek "asylum" in Macedonia. It is expected that some of them will permanently remain in Macedonia, while others will stay here only temporarily. Police experts point out that some of the Yugoslav "businessmen" who defect to Macedonia will open their firms here and try to wash their "dirty" capital through them.

Be that as it may, Macedonia has a new neighbour in the north. It is unrewarding to make any forecasts, but one thing is certain: as of October 5 nothing in the region is the same.

Zeljko Bajic

(AIM)