New Montenegrin Proposal to New Regime in Belgrade

Union of Sovereign States

Two seats in the United Nations, a few common departments, a single-chamber parliament - this seems to be the new proposal Djukanovic has offered to Kostunica. These are just the outlines of a new state Djukanovic would like to see, but it is unknown whether other members of the coalition agree with it and whether such a proposal will ultimately be accepted by Belgrade

AIM Podgorica, October 22, 2000

Only after five days it became clear what Kostunica and Djukanovic had actually talked about in Podgorica: Montenegrin proposal on new relations between Serbia and Montenegro was on the table as a new step further from the solutions presented in last year's Platform of Montenegrin Government on Redefining Relations of the two members of FRY.

The initial, curt statements after the meeting of Yugoslav and Montenegrin presidents had not pointed to the conclusion that anything specific had been discussed in Podgorica: both Kostunica and Djukanovic were very restrained in comments about the essence of their two-hour bilateral talks.

The real topic was revealed from abroad. Two days after Kostunica's visit, Albert Roan, secretary general of Austrian foreign ministry, visited Montenegro. It is claimed that Mr. Roan has very good connections with numerous European politicians and the obvious intention of his visit was to finally learn from president Djukanovic what his strategy concerning relations with Serbia was like. He also seemed to have intended to make this public.

As soon as he returned to Vienna, Roan conveyed his observations. “President Djukanovic wants complete redefining of relations with Serbia”, he said to Austrian journalists, stressing that Djukanovic wished “a union of independent states as a solution for the future state”.

The statement of Albert Roan caused great alarm in Podgorica and the tangle started to unravel. In Niksic president Djukanovic had stressed that his party would “consider changes of the existing Platform” but he did not wish to give details. The leadership of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) seems to have had an internal agreement not to discuss publicly the proposal but to offer it to Kostunica as “a proposal to be considered”.

But when foreigners presented some of the outlines of the “secret” Montenegrin proposal, official Podgorica had no choice. It turned out that the newly elected president of FRY Kostunica had been informed about the new proposal for redefining relations between Serbia and Montenegro and that elaboration of that proposal was well under way, at least as far as Podgorica was concerned!

What is it all about? As claimed by AIM sources from the top of Democratic Party of Socialists, leaders of this party have been elaborating details of the new arrangement of relations with Serbia for fifteen days already. According to these information leadership of DPS is united: FRY such as it was so far does not exist any more, Montenegro and Serbia must request international recognition and as such unite in some kind of a union of sovereign states. It has not been precisely clarified what mode of relations these will be, but it is obvious that it is a kind of extremely loose confederation.

According to the current proposal, apart from two flags on the East River and separate membership of Serbia and Montenegro in financial organisations and institutions, the future union of sovereign states would imply some joint functions in the sphere of security, foreign policy, a small number of common agencies, the president of the union, a government consisting of a few departments and a single-chamber parity assembly (most probably with twenty deputies from Serbia and twenty from Montenegro).

It will be proposed to the new authorities in Belgrade to postpone joining of FRY the UN and other international associations until the final agreement between Serbia and Montenegro which should follow soon after December 23, that is, after completion of Serbian parliamentary elections.

Until the end of next week, perhaps on Thursday on October 26, the Government of Montenegro will adopt a new platform for negotiations with Serbia it is claimed by well informed Podgorica Vijesti daily.

It turned out that Montenegrin state leadership has invested considerable effort into developing a strategy for the new political situation: negotiations with the new Serbian regime after Milosevic.

Many details about constitution, status of member states, regulations of mutual relations and future joint functions are still quite vague. But the starting basis is quite clear: Yugoslavia conceived in Zabljak and constituted according to the Constitution passed in 1992 is not in the plans of Djukanovic and his party comrades any more. “Any federal government, any federal institution, will be illegitimate for us, until a new possible agreement between Serbia and Montenegro”, said Miodrag Vukovic, advisor of Montenegrin president and president of the executive board of DPS.

What are the possible reactions to Montenegrin proposal, will it be supported by Montenegrins and where it will be addressed to – in Belgrade?

For the moment, the new regime in Belgrade is silent: neither Kostunica nor anyone from Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) publicly declared their views on the proposal hinted at from Podgorica. The silence for Belgrade seems justified: leaders from DOS still have not the final version of Montenegrin proposal and it is quite logical that they do not wish to “beat the gun”.

In the meantime, it will be more interesting to watch whether this idea on a union of independent states will fall on fertile ground in Montenegro and how it will affect possible regrouping of political forces in the Republic. It is already certain that two members of the ruling coalition – People's Party (NS) and Social Democratic Party (SDP)- have different views of the proposal that arrived from DPS.

On Friday at the press conference, vice-president of People's Party, Predrag Popovic, stressed that for this party the idea of separate seats in the UN was unacceptable, as well as of “Montenegro becoming independent without a referendum”.

“Two seats in the United Nations completely discredit the previous Platform on Redefining Relations between Serbia and Montenegro. DPS unilaterally gave up on the conclusions reached in previous meetings with representatives of Serbia, and SDP is searching for reasons not to reach an agreement with Serbia”, Predrag Popovic sharply criticised coalition partners. Vice president of NS emphasised that his party would not allow Montenegro's “becoming independent without referendum” underlining that on the contrary People's Party would leave the coalition.

Social Democratic Party is also in favour of referendum but from a completely different stand. Vice president of SDP Rifat Rastoder says that Montenegrin authorities have agreed to talk to Kostunica wishing to achieve new reality as painlessly as possible, but notes that “referendum is necessary”.

The referendum cannot be postponed for more than a few months, and the ultimate deadline may be the scheduled elections in Serbia of December 23, Rastoder thinks. Unlike the representative of People's Party Rastoder believes that despite different views the ruling coalition in Montenegro may survive. ”I believe that the president of People's Party and the whole party will become aware of the new reality which lies ahead of us and that it will primarily take into account the interests of the state of Montenegro and its citizens”, Rastoder concluded.

The question of the referendum obviously remained vague. Noone from the most powerful party in Montengro – DPS – has even hinted at the possibility of scheduling the referendum on state legal status. Are Djukanovic and comrades checking out the situation or perhaps they still have not determined the strategy whether to wait for the answer from Belgrade or are they testing the public opinion with the announcement of the new Platform in order to finally know what direction to take?

There are a lot of questions at the moment the answer to which only leaders of DPS Djukanovic, Marovic and Vujanovic know. Although there was a lot of talk about internal conflicts in DPS, for the time being voices of “complete unity” have so far been heard from this party. It is also interesting that for Thursday new talks have been scheduled with Belgrade where Marovic and Vujanovic from DPS and Dragan Soc from People's Party will go. Whether they will appear as a team or as a shattered coalition, it remains to be seen.

The only thing that is certain is that after publication of the new Montenegrin proposal a strong political turmoil should be expected both in Montenegro and outside it.

Aleksandar RADOVIC

(AIM)