Serbia: The Left Attempts to Cope with Defeat

An already formidable number of Socialist and Yugoslav Left officials now openly doubt that Milosevic and his wife will be able to stay in politics, supporting claims that the political divorce between the Socialists and the Yugoslav Left came too late.

AIM Podgorica, October 13, 2000

It was February, the Socialist Party of Serbia was holding its fourth congress, but some analysts were already claiming that the future of the party directly depended on one thing -- Slobodan Milosevic's ability to politically detach himself from his wife, Mirjana Markovic, i.e. her party, the Yugoslav Left. Milosevic, obviously paid little heed to these warnings, allowing the Yugoslav Left to carry out a silent coup and take over vital state institutions starting from the army, police and finance, to information and health. The "two polices in one house" predicament lasted until Oct. 5 when the "Yugoslav Left's silent coup was met by a loud response in streets country-wide. Without power and cornered in Dedinje (sometimes elsewhere), Milosevic and his wife finally announced their political divorce.

The Socialists announced that they would run alone in elections in the future and announced an irregular party congress for Nov. 25, to lick their wounds and regain courage for the events ahead.

This primarily meant elections for the Serbian legislature set for December that could turn the party, which was until recently a prime political factor into an insignificant political group if it loses. Yugoslav Left president Ljubisa Ristic also announced that his party would run alone in elections. The leaders of the Yugoslav Left said that they were "not interested" in participating in the new republic and federal governments, the topic of negotiations between the opposition and the Socialists. This sounds a bit funny to say the least because no one invited or wants the Yugoslav Left in the governments either.

An already formidable number of Socialists and Yugoslav Left officials now openly doubt that Milosevic and his wife will be able to stay in politics, supporting claims that the political divorce between the Socialists and the Yugoslav Left came too late. Socialists in Nis were the first to call on Slobodan Milosevic to resign as party leader and retire from politics, for the party's sake. They also objected to his stubborn refusal to acknowledge Vojislav Kostunica's victory in presidential elections that almost plunged the country into civil war. The two Nis chapter leaders who dared advise Milosevic to turn the party's wheel over to someone else, were sacked the following day, in the party leadership's first reaction since the recent dramatic events. The expulsion of the two Nis Socialist officials, who were blasted as being responsible for the party's worst electoral results in Nis ever, did not seemingly have a great impact on the rank and file. A day or two later, a similar demand echoed from Sabac. Miloje Mihajlovic, a prominent Krusevac Socialist, also was quoted as saying that "I hope that Slobodan Milosevic will resign soon."

The first senior party official to leave the party was Gorica Gajevic, long-time secretary general. The prevailing view within the party is that Gajevic resigned to avoid being sacked. Immediately after the elections, Gajevic blamed under-qualified officials in municipal chapters for the defeat. Two days later, at the party's first post-election meeting, Gajevic was heavily criticized, forcing her to apologize to the same people she had reproached. Before the elections, Gajevic was rated as one of the party's most unpopular officials. She held a leading position, little could be undertaken without her signature or approval. She was among those entrusted with bringing Milosevic only the good news. In the meantime, Zoran Andjelkovic, formerly in charge of Kosovo Serb-related issues, replaced her.

Serbian President Milan Milutinovic was elected as the party's new vice-president. Many believe that Milutinovic will lead the party in the following weeks and attempt to organize a "congress of salvation," or maybe even prepare the way for Milosevic's retirement. If Slobodan Milosevic, seeing the blatant lack of respect with which even the common party member speaks of him, decides to retire, this will certainly trigger a battle for succession. Former Yugoslav president Zoran Lilic, has recently shown an ambition "to help revive the party." In an interview with the NIN weekly, Lilic demanded that Milosevic resign and allow the Socialist party to save itself, but also directly accused Milan Milutinovic of passively watching the situation in the country even though he had in his hands many instruments that could have prevented the recent crisis.

Many took this as a sign that the battle for Milosevic's succession has begun. Lilic is more likely to win any contest between Milutinovic and himself, at least when the party rank and file is concerned. One of his greatest advantages is that he resigned from all positions in the party before the election, clearly proclaiming his discontent with the influence that the Yugoslav Left had on the Socialists. Many within the party claim that, after resigning, Lilic had gone to see Milosevic, telling him to his face all to which he objected. If Milosevic decides to leave politics, this could help Lilic a lot.

Of course, it should not be ruled out that the party, which saw itself snugly in power in the new millennium, could split up. Some people see Milorad Vucelic as the party's new leader. They claim that he could bring a European image to the staggering party, maybe even a new name such as, "Eurocenter Left." Currently there appear to be at least three factions in the party: the defeated hardline core that believes that Milosevic still has much to offer in politics, the moderates, who endorse cooperation with the Democratic Opposition of Serbia and insist that the party return to its "roots," and lastly, those who believe that the party should start anew with a fresh leadership.

However, the people in the party that are currently negotiating with the DOS (or more precisely, avoiding negotiations) on the makeup of the government are the ones most likely to decide the party's fate; not those who will lead the party in the future. It is not difficult to see that early elections for the legislature, unofficially set for Dec. 24, are unfavorable for the Socialists and Radicals. Serbian Radical Party leader Vojislav Seselj says this openly, emphasizing that December elections are still early for his party. Even though later elections would be like a referee protracting the count for a groggy boxer in the ring for the Radicals, the Socialists are not rejecting early elections (not publicly, at least) for practical reasons, but instead speak of a lack of legal grounds. They are buying time and waiting for the first cracks to appear in the DOS. DOS leaders are proposing an expert government to bridge the pre-election period and the joint handling of four of the most important ministries: the interior, finance, justice and information ministries. The Socialists basically have nothing against this or the idea of Milomir Minic, one of their own, heading the provisional government. Despite this, the Socialists have not taken a clear stance on what they will do: some want to negotiate on the new government, realizing that they have almost no power left, while others want to attempt to "ruin the game for the opponent," create chaos and indefinitely stall the DOS's initiatives. Advocates of the latter believe, it seems, that they might be able turn the tables and return things to the way they were by making use of the current chaotic situation, in which it is not clear who controls the police.

DOS leaders have said that the time for forming new federal and republic governments is running out. If the Socialists do not hurry (the Radicals have obviously distanced themselves from the talks), the DOS says it will call the people back onto the streets, thus directly refuting claims by the more radical public that half-baked revolutions are usually not very successful. It seems that the final deadline for an agreement is Oct. 14, when a soccer match between Belgrade's Red Star and Partisan will be held. It is difficult to believe that even the hardliners in the Socialist party will want to face "crisis committees" made up of soccer fans who reportedly entered the parliament building before the people from Cacak.

Nenad. Lj. Stefanovic

(AIM)