Montenegrin Regime After Milosevic's Fall

Kostunica's Offer Cause of Discord

The victory of Democratic Opposition of Serbia and the removal of the military threat to Montenegro inevitably leads to weakening of links in the politically heterogeneous Montenegrin ruling coalition. But Kostunica's offer to give Socialist People's Party (SNP) and not the majority in Montenegro the mandate to form the federal government might mark the definite debacle of illusions inside Montenegrin authorities that FRY is possible

AIM Podgorica, October 15, 2000

The October "revolution" in Serbia was a relief for Montenegro. By Milosevic's departure and crumbling down of the regime he had established, practically in a single day eliminated direct military threat that menaced Montenegro for the past three years, more precisely from the day when Djukanovic turned his back on the Serbian leader.

This, however, does not mean that Montenegrin political scene will be less interesting in the forthcoming period. On the contrary, many signals indicate that accelerated regrouping of forces within party coalitions should be expected in Montenegro.

All the members of Montenegrin ruling coalition heartily welcomed the victory of Vojislav Kostunica and the overthrow of Milosevic. Everybody in power also agrees that the victory of democratic forces in Serbia might finally bring the relations with Montenegro back to normal. But these are the only two questions about which all three members of the coalition have identical stands. There are many observed differences though - not only in statements but also in moves they make - which imply that a storm is building up in the coalition.

Leaders of the People's Party (NS) have immediately hurried to meet the new president of FRY halfway. "People's Party can conclude with pride that the events we witnessed confirm its former politics. Let me remind you: way back in '93 in the Declaration with Democratic Party of Serbia NS anticipated the Platform of the government of Montenegro", stated Dragan Soc, president of People's Party. And that is not all: people from the People's Party are the only ones from Montenegrin ruling coalition who have gone to the cocktail party in Belgrade occasioned by Kostunica's inauguration. This unannounced journey was received with surprise in the ranks of Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and Social Democratic Party (SDP), the other two members of the coalition. Vice presidents of NS, Drecun and Popovic, have not announced, as customary, that they would "officially" visit Belgrade, nor have they explained afterwards what they had talked about with the president of FRY.

It is a fact that members of the People's Party have insisted for a long time on relieving of duty the editorial team at Montenegrin Television because of its "anti-Serb media policy" and that they have increasingly criticised certain persons from the state leadership who are speaking about independence of Montenegro. Coincidence or not: after the visit to Belgrade leaders of People's Party had a sharp verbal conflict first with the foreign minister Branko Lukovac. Dragan Soc, minister of justice in the government of Montenegro, publicly criticised Lukovac's statement that Montenegro and Serbia ought to reach an agreement on new relations, but like two independent state. Besides, members of People's Party have condemned the moves of Rakcevic's SDP which demands the referendum on state and legal status of Montenegro.

Is People's Party acting independently or is the sudden and open criticism of recent allies from the coalition the result of certain new political regrouping? Close relations of the leaders of People's Party with Svetozar Marovic, vice-president of DPS, have been known for a long time. That is why many people in Podgorica believe that this is a matter of joint pressure coordinated by Marovic and exerted on president of Montenegro Milo Djukanovic in order to prevent stories on future Montenegrin independence.

"That is nonsense", claims Miodrag Vukovic in his statement for AIM, stressing that in the leadership of DPS there are no differences concerning the state status of Montenegro. "Marovic is one of the creators of the Platform and he would not risk a split in DPS for the sake of some uncertain possibility of new coalitions". Vukovic, however, does not conceal that there are sometimes "dissonant tones" in public appearances.

Leaders of DPS think that it is necessary to take one step at a time: they welcomed Kostunica's victory but also publicly stressed that, as far a Montenegro is concerned, Kostunica would not be treated as a "real" president of FRY. According to the present stand of Djukanovic and his party comrades conditions for a true dialogue with Belgrade are just being created, the dialogue Milosevic had never agreed to. "This, however, does not mean that Montenegrin referendum is not one of realistic options", says Vukovic.

It is a fact, however, that many things are not going right within the coalition. Just like the People's Party people from the leadership of the Social Democratic Party seem to be losing patience and have no understanding for "active waiting" advocated by DPS. Rakcevic believes that time has come not to wait but to push declaration of the will of the citizens in the referendum. Presidency of SDP has for this purpose decided that the policy of the party must be pressure on Djukanovic to make a choice. If not, SDP will leave the coalition. "I know that we are repeating threats, but this time we have no choice: how can we talk to our membership about patience when there is no direct threat, how can be say that there is no need for the referendum when all conditions for it have been created", says Rakcevic, president of SDP, while talking to AIM.

Rakcevic also points out to the data from an investigation of the disposition of the membership of the coalition carried out in August

1. "It was clear at the federal elections that almost 80 per cent of the citizens of Montenegro do not believe in FRY", Rakcevic states, noting that being a pragmatic politician Djukanovic must take that into account. "He will have to make a choice very soon", Rakcevic believes warning that if that does not happen, SDP will not be able to survive in the coalition any more.

Renewed negotiations with the Liberal League of Montenegro (LSCG) have, without any doubt, contributed to the sharpness of the stands of SDP. In the end of last week, immediately after the events in front of the building of the federal assembly, leader of LSCG Miodrag Zivkovic contacted president of SDP and tried to talk him into stepping out of the coalition in power and future coalition cooperation with his party. SDP has certain reservations towards LSCG, but accepted informal talks in order to consider the possibility of cooperation in case the leadership of DPS refuses to reach definite decisions soon.

It is obvious that it will be difficult to balance such different strategies without big shocks, although one should expect that the coalition will continue to act more or less unitedly for some time.

Much will depend not only on the situation in Montenegro but - perhaps even more - on the moves the new authorities in Belgrade will make. That is why official Podgorica received with bitterness Kostunica's offer to Predrag Bulatovic to be the new mandatary of the federal government.

"Dark clouds have overcast the impressive victory of democratic forces in Serbia", it is said in the statement of Democratic Party of Socialists issued as a reaction to the agreement between DOS and SNP. "We understand that only as a part of some political bargain, but also as an ill-disposed move. We shall never agree to such a bargain", it is concluded in the statement of the most powerful party in Montenegrin coalition.

Miodrag Vukovic, president of the executive board of DPS and advisor of Montenegrin president Djukanovic is even more specific. "Kostunica has disappointed the democratic and majority part of Montenegro which has in its own way beaten Milosevic by the fact that 80 per cent of the people stayed at home, in order to defend the democratic project and state of Montenegro", Vukovic emphasised pointing out that it was impossible to make a legitimate government with SNP, "the persons who have won their seats in the federal assembly by political violence".

After the offer to Predrag Bulatovic to be the federal prime minister, even People's Party suddenly, just two days after the public praise of Kostunica, changed its opinion. "If Kostunica offers the mandate to somebody from SNP, he will be to blame for dissolution of Yugoslavia", declared Predrag Drecun, vice-president of People's Party. Obviously they were embittered by the move of Kostunica because in possible negotiations with DOS they saw their own future and the future of FRY.

"The key of the future moves of official Podgorica is in the hands of DPS", thinks Srdjan Darmanovic, political analyst and director of the Centre for Human Rights and Democracy. "It will depend on the relations within that party how the future negotiations with Serbian authorities will proceed. It is obvious that since 1992 FRY does not exist in options of DPS. But whether it will move in the direction of an independent state will depend on the level of unity inside DPS. Primarily if Marovic, who is the second man in the party, realises that union without majorisation is impossible, this party will force the story about independent Montenegro and perhaps in very near future try to establish a partnership with other pro-Montenegrin parties, primarily Perovic's Liberals", says Darmanovic, stressing that nevertheless one should not expect quick moves of Montenegrin authorities.

Dr. Milan Popovic, professor of Law School in Podgorica, believes that Montenegro must urgently, by a constitutional law, proclaim a moratorium on FRY and in this way reinforce its future negotiating position in relation to the authorities in Belgrade. "The only logical democratic way after that is scheduling a referendum as democratic verification of the electoral will of the citizens. Everything else will mean sweeping the problems under the carpet, and not resolving them", says Popovic criticising the idea that political elites are directly negotiating about the destiny of the people. "This would be another big self-deceit and pledge similar to the one in 1992 when Zabljak Constitution was created by will of the two most powerful parties", Popovic concluded.

The latest investigations carried out in August 2000, show that at this moment the idea of FRY is not supported by 70 per cent of Montenegrin citizen and that inside coalition "For Better Living" 65 per cent of the supporters declare themselves in favour of independent Montenegro! With the support of Perovic's Liberals it means that Djukanovic could count on a very certain result of the referendum which would lead to independence of the state.

Political mathematics is one thing, and life is, after all, something quite different. It seems, however, that euphoria in the international community now does not open big chances that Western countries would look upon Montenegrin road to independence with benevolence. The recent visit of Jim O'Brian, special advisor of US president, showed that the leading countries of the West nowadays have more urgent matters to attend to than to bother about Montenegrin independence. Despite praises of Montenegrin reformist government O'Brian did not fail to suggest that the West and primarily the USA expected "serious talks on the future of the community of Serbia and Montenegro". Sources from Montenegrin state leadership stress that American envoy was quite clear in the talks in strict confidence: Montenegro should not make hasty moves, but sit down and talk to DOS first.

Probably that is the reason why Montenegrin regime – which is receiving large foreign donations for the survival of the state – is trying to persist in its strategy of “active waiting”. “In the past three years we were the partner state, it would not be good if we now became the problem state” says Vukovic for AIM. He also stresses that his party is carefully balancing and weighing the benefits: whether it should suddenly deprive itself of international support or slowly build up its position listening to the developments in Serbia.

The most realistic possibility DPS has at its disposal at the moment are new changes of the Platform for Redefining Relations with Serbia. Sources close to DPS say that the main change will refer to international position of Montenegro, and that the regime in Podgorica will insist on the change of the name of Yugoslavia, and even more significantly, on two seats in the United Nations. Such a model has existed in several cases, and the people from DPS believe that the closest solution for the relations would be the one applied for a time by Russia and Ukraine – the double membership in the UN.

However, if there should be no real interlocutor in Serbia, if the new administration there does not manifest the minimum of cooperativeness with the majority in Montenegro, Djukanovic will have to choose: either to go in the direction of creation of the Montenegrin bloc and referendum or to try to somehow maintain the coalition with SDP and NS and wait for the denouement in Serbia and new negotiations with Belgrade.

The question that arises is whether by postponing the question of the state and legal status of Montenegro for a more convenient moment the Montenegrin regime is making the right estimate or whether Montenegro will in this way lose its right to choose.

Drasko DJRANOVIC

(AIM)