Local Elections in Albania: Way out of the Vicious Circle
AIM Tirana, October 8, 2000
What has happened is neither the worst nor the best. Local elections of October 1 in Albania were peaceful, there was no violence and serious incidents, but their results have not been recognised by the losers. While the Socialists in power proclaimed victory, the Democrats in the opposition accused the government of having manipulated the elections and said that they would not recognise a single manipulated result.
"Like a shameful manipulated farce", this is how the elections were characterised by the head of the opposition, former president Berisha. On the other hand, prime minister Meta believes that refusal of Berisha to recognise the results of the elections is "a failed and discredited alibi in order to cover up the defeat". International monitors of OSCE and Council of Europe assessed that the elections were "significant progress of Albania towards meeting standards for democratic elections". They informed that there was a certain number of irregularities especially with voters' register, but according to the published report these irregularities did not influence the election results. In a public statement US ambassador most directly articulated the stand that local elections were "free and fair" and peaceful. Unlike on previous occasions, the international community was united in the assessment of the latest elections.
Coordinator of Stability Pact Bodo Hombach, OSCE chairman and foreign minister of Austria, Benita Ferrero-Waldner, Italian deputy foreign minister Ranieri, all consider the elections normal and a step forward in the direction of democracy and stability in Albania.
According to the initial information, the Socialists won 27 out of 65 city assemblies, Tirana inclusive, which were controlled by the Democrats during the whole period of post-communist transition. The Democrats managed to win only in nine city assemblies, only one of which is a big city - Shkoder. On the other hand, in 27 city assemblies and 131 municipalities, that is, in about 40 per cent of polling districts it will be necessary to have the second round of the elections in order to determine the winner.
The latest local elections considered by the public to be a test for democracy and stability of the country show that the Albanians have managed to find a way out of the vicious circle of violence, but not of the vicious circle of denial of election results. It is certain that a step forward has been taken but a step backward as well. In any case, the Gordian knot of Albanian politics seems to have started to unwind. The established irregularities in the register, although they cast doubt on the victory of the Socialists, cannot change the defeat of the Democrats.
Confusion concerning voters' register accompanied the whole campaign. In the past years Albania had uncontrolled migration of the population, both from villages to the cities, and inside cities, which turned registration of the citizens into something like a surrealistic adventure. The opposition complained that the register was used in order to make a political selection of voters, but although they admitted that there had been certain irregularities, international monitors did not support inclination towards forgery and manipulation.
The press in Tirana devoted much more attention to the defeat of the opposition than to the victory of the Socialists. The focus of criticism and hypotheses is on the leader of the opposition, former president Berisha. He personally headed the campaign of his party using as usual mass rallies and very sharp vocabulary against his Socialist opponents. Berisha's style does not seem to be efficient only in homogenisation of his opponents, but this style is also frightening and counter-productive among peaceful and undecided voters in the country. Berisha's Democratic Party does not seem to have become aware that in order to win votes it is not enough to have the votes of militant forces, but they need also the votes of those in the centre and of the undecided. Democratic Party is facing an alternative. It can either remain a closed party of militant forces or it can turn into an open party of the citizens. On the other hand, Albanian Right is divided into a certain number of small parties which either serve as Berisha's décor or which are in conflict with him.
"Democratic Party is nowadays more lonely than ever, and the parties of the Right are more divided than ever", weekly called Spektar comments in its latest issue. The defeat in the elections has considerably aggravated the position of Berisha inside his party; Berisha's critics demand that he withdraw from the head of the party and that he recognise the defeat in the elections. But there is no chance for Berisha to depart from the head of the party he has complete control of. It seems that Berisha intends to partially deny the results of the elections. Complete denial of the elections would complicate many things in the country, but primarily internal and external position of Berisha himself.
At its last meeting, Democratic Party has not managed to resolve its main dilemma: participation in the second round of the elections. It has not eliminated participation in the second round, but it put conditions which can hardly be met.
The Democrats demanded that the second round be postponed, which does not seem possible because the Socialists who are in power do not wish that, but also because the international community wants to take the Albanian elections off the agenda in order to concentrate on the elections in Kosovo.
The Democrats also demanded replacement of the members of the Central Electoral Commission which they had constantly questioned because of its pro-Socialist composition, but this too will be very difficult to carry out in the middle of the process.
What can be met among the conditions set by Democrats is the review of the voters' register in the regions where the second round of the elections will take place, which will help in reveling the mistakes in the lists in the first round on the territory of the whole state.
In such a situation, it is difficult to predict whether the opposition will participate in the second round of the elections. After it had received confirmation about the regularity of the elections, the government did not seem to be sensitive to reactions of the Democrats.
There was fear that possible denial of the results could be accompanied by riots and scenes of violence, but nothing of the kind happened. Followers of the opposition did not protest in the streets. Berisha who used to warn Socialists' leaders with the words “who plays with votes is playing with his life” did not call his supporters to protest. Peaceful transfer of local power is quite possible now. There are no signs either that the Democrats will refuse the posts won in a certain number of city assemblies and municipalities.
And while the Democrats' leader will have to face the defeat alone, in the camp of the Socialists, prime minister Meta and president of the party Nano share the victory. Meta has come out of these elections stronger not only because of the results but especially because of the course of the elections. The pragmatic prime minister successfully passed the test of stability of the country reinforcing in this way his positions. The internal conflict between two main groups of Socialists seems to have died down. At this moment Nano and Meta feel that they are complementary more than rivals. Neither of them seeks much from the other.
Both seem to share the opinion concerning the future of the ruling coalition. Minor allies cause more concern of the Socialists than they contribute to it. Democratic Alliance is more a critic than an ally of the government. Party of Human Rights which represents ethnic minorities, joined those who are accusing the government for manipulating electoral register. In some places in the second election round Social Democrats have joint candidates with Socialists, and in some regions their candidates are rivals of the candidates of the Socialists. Agricultural Party won less votes than a single independent candidate. Nano made it clear that he preferred an alliance with civil society than an alliance with parties without voters.
In such conditions “Alliance for the State” is everything but an Alliance. Its split will open the process of changing the government and the question of the balance between Nano and Meta in it. It seems that the only problem for the Socialists is divorce from Social Democrats who have managed to win eight per cent of the votes which made them the third party in the country pushing back the disunited monarchists, disoriented Republicans and the Party for Human Rights which has also been defeated. The second round for the city assembly of Himara seems to be especially interesting because a candidate of the Socialists and a representative of the organisation of Greek minority called “Omonia” are competing. While Albania considers the citizens of Himara the Albanians who speak Greek, Greece insists that they be recognised as Greek minority. Athens is also applying a policy of privileges by means of visas for the citizens of Himara and increased investments in the region. Journal of the Greek minority called Democracia informed about creation of the coalition between the Democratic Party and the Socialist Party against the candidate of Homonia. Should this happen it will be the first time that Nano's Socialists and Berisha's Democrats form a local coalition. The Socialists who control more than two thirds in the parliament and who will probably control more than half of the local authorities seem to be becoming a predominant force on the political scene of this country. In a country where the balance of power has been disturbed, where cohabitation of the regime is in fact manifested more like mutual blockades, this might open the road to more efficient rule. However, it cannot be eliminated that this double mandate is perceived also as a permit for abuse of power especially in the conditions in which the opposition is in a deep crisis and could hardly play the role of a democratic counter-balance. If it is extremely important for the Democrats to face the defeat, it is very important indeed for the Socialists to administer the victory.
What decided the victory of the Socialists seems to have been the votes of the undecided, middle strata of the population who despite scepticism for the Socialists prefer to vote for them than for the Democrats. The elections of October 1 were the first elections in which TV screens were more important than squares of the cities where rallies were held. The Socialists seem to have understood this better. The Democrats were always winners in the squares, the Socialists realised that it was more important to send messages on TV to the majority which refuse or hate to go to rallies.
The elections of October 1, seem to have overcome, although not completely, the division of the voters between the North and the South. The Socialists are more popular in the South and the Democrats in the North. But the division is not so clear any more; a certain rise of the popularity of the Socialists in the north has become evident, and that of the Democrats in the south.
About 60 per cent of the voters have voted in the elections on October
- This is the smallest turnout ever. More than an indication of indifference of the people to politics, this figure is also an indication of their distrust to two main political forces in the country and of refusal of permanent political conflict.
In two months the Albanians will observe the tenth anniversary of the fall of the communist regime and after that holiday, next spring, they will go to the polls to vote for the tenth time. Was October 1 a dress rehearsal?
AIM Tirana
Remzi LANI