Portraits and Chances of Presidential Candidates in the Republic of Srpska

Both Dodik and Sarovic, the main competitors in the November electoral race, have the same "exceptional characteristic" - they react quickly and are good at adapting to changing situation. Although they have some similar traits, according to sociologists, they represent two different political types.

AIM Banja Luka, October 12, 2000

Two bitter political opponents will face each other at the coming November presidential elections. According to many assessments, the preferential electoral system will lead to the final showdown between the two strongest competitors - Milorad Dodik and Mirko Sarovic. That political fight is extremely uncertain, but will be greatly influenced by the outcome of political developments in the neighbouring Yugoslavia.

After the victory of the democratic opposition of Serbia and its presidential candidate Vojislav Kostunica was announced, some political leaders from Serbia openly thanked Dodik for his unreserved assistance. The announced support of the "Resistance" movement is particularly interesting.

Mirko Sarovic made a courtesy turnabout, welcomed the democratic changes and the popular will in Serbia and congratulated the newly elected president of Yugoslavia, Vojislav Kostunica. He diplomatically avoided mentioning the until-yesterday president, hiding behind a phrase how he had full respect for the legitimate representatives of the authorities and institutions of the system.

At the same time, the political change in Yugoslavia was the reason why in an unpleasant TV dialogue with Dodik, usually calm and temperate Vice-President of the Republic of Srpska, perhaps for the first time, openly showed that he could lose temper. Be that as it may, in a rather recent interview to the Belgrade daily "Danas" (Today), Sarovic, at least on time, expressed his personal inclination towards Kostunica.

Olivera Pavlovic, from the Faculty of Philosophy in Banja Luka, thinks that the relation of the new Yugoslav authorities towards the Hague Tribunal and revision of relations with countries of the former Yugoslavia will be of extreme importance. "Actually, the rhetoric about events in Serbia will be significant for presidential candidates, as well as the fact which one will succeed in persuading the citizens of his intention to link RS with Yugoslavia".

She thinks that Sarovic and Dodik have excellent qualities: they are quick in their reactions and adapt well to changing situations. Although, according to her, Sarovic and Dodik represent two different socio-psychological profiles, they have some similarities. "Bot Sarovic and Dodik are men of humble origins. One is modest, affable, has never been involved in a scandal, doesn't have much property, lives modestly, speaks clearly of his national stands and changes. Dodik, too, is of humble origin, but in a different way. He is firm, is known to show his teeth and is an easy-going person (which can be illustrated by his behaviour at assembly sessions) who uses vocabulary understandable to ordinary people. He is here and is one of us. He can be arrogant, but people like such things, because it should be clear who is the boss. He has to be untouchable and enjoy certain privileges. On the other hand, people feel that certain economic progress has been made during Dodik's time", analyses Mrs.Pavlovic presidential candidates.

Director of the "Partner" marketing agency, Danilo Vukovic thinks that Milorad Dodik would have better chances against a political opponent like Dragan Cavic, for example. In Vukovic's opinion it would have been much easier for Dodik to defeat Cavic. Vukovic explains: "There are fundamental differences between them. Sarovic is more moderate. He was such as Vice-President and never served as an explicit Vice-President of only SDS followers, but managed to maintain an image of the Vice-President of all citizens of RS. Cavic is harsher. It was assumed that Cavic would be a stronger candidate precisely because of his bluntness. As far as temperament is concerned, Dodik is like Cavic".

Who will have the edge when the time comes to circle a name, is hard to tell. "The electorate is changing rapidly and very subtle elements will influence the final decision. For example, the taking of Momcilo Krajisnik to the Hague just before the elections raised the SDS's rating by at least 5 percent", explains Olivera Pavlovic.

In her opinion, citizens of the Republic of Srpska still feel threatened and therefore express their identity aggressively. Their fear is explained by "the uncertainty of that which they are living in, which definitely isn't a state and which has to be defined". In Olivera Pavlovic's words: "Presidential elections are important for both sides. For Dodik, victory would mean the legitimisation of his rule and he is trying with all his might to secure that confirmation. In the meantime, SDS has purged its ranks, developed a different image and became more flexible towards the international community".

Experience of countries in transition (true, those that did not register growth), show that people have always chosen strong charismatic leaders capable of leading their people, providing them with protection, those who are close to them and who speak a populist language.

Danilo Vukovic warns that electoral results might be decided by "second choice", with Ivanic's Party of Democratic Progress and its presidential candidate Momir Tepic having the best chances of winning, because they areacceptable to both options. However, Vukovic warns that this cannot last for ever and that at certain point Ivanic will have to openly declare his stand.

In Vukovic's estimate, after adding these two selections, Sarovic's absolute potential is 44 percent and Dodik's 28.6 percent. "SDS is more observed as a party, and Dodik as a personality. He is more charismatic as a leader. He is linked to changes and SDS stands for national feelings".

Question is how far back does the people's memory go and will they compare how they used to live with the way they are living now. For, it is a fact that the international assistance started coming to RS when Dodik came to power", Mrs.Pavlovic rounded off this sociological analysis of presidential candidates.

Apart from Dodik, SNSD has no other strong personalities. Vukovic resents Dodik for covering the Republic of Srpska with posters much before the electoral campaign even began, although he knew that the influence of posters on the voters was negligible: "What was the aim of that campaign? What message did he convey to his voters - that he is powerful and has much money which he had used for posters. Who can today spend so much money on posters? Danilo Vukovic says that Dodik's strongest point is his temperament, which should be the focus of his campaign. "Under specific circumstances he will have to turn that negative trait into a positive one", thinks Vukovic.

But, according to him, Dodik has started his campaign rather late. "He should have shaped his profile more clearly. Sarovic has a different tactics. He treads slowly, calmly and attracts votes. He represents a total transformation of SDS", says Vukovic. Vukovic also criticises Dodik for being inflexible with the media: "I have the impression that Dodik is afraid of the media and that he turns that fear into aggression. Decisiveness is important for voters, but it has to be reconciled with the ability to communicate and human qualities in addressing the public".

The Director of the marketing agency "Partner", which has recently published the results of a survey conducted in RS on a sample of 2,400 citizens, thinks that the situation has not changed much compared to April elections. The results of this survey point to a significant advantage of the candidate of the national SDS. Although this does not represent a cross-section of the entire electorate, since the pulse of the non-Serbian population has not been taken yet, Vukovic is more than sure that his agency was correct in its assessments. About 35 percent of abstainers (5-6 percent) will chose either the first or the second option.

Almost 30 percent of voters will abstain, which in itself does not represent a problem. According to sociologists, much greater problem is the fact that the electorate has not been determined, no population census made and that because 1991 figures are used, no one knows the exact number of refugees and displaced persons. Elections, which are organised in a country in which no one knows the exact number of inhabitants nor voters, do not follow any sociological regularities.

"The only thing we have are estimates. We have a formal number of voters. There is no survey on what the people think, what is the situation in the country or the rating of political parties. I have in mind in-depth serious studies on the set of socio-demographic characteristics (what represents the electorate and how does it look like). A survey I conducted with my students showed that almost 40 percent of the so called social elite do not plan going to the polls. They want to leave the country, and for them there is no point in tuning out at the elections", says Mrs. Pavlovic.

Parties count on their voters and that electorate is stable; but it would be useful to motivate the population to turnout at the polling places. The competition between candidates should be directed towards abstainers and uncommitted voters. If not, each of them can hope for a favourable outcome of the political events in Serbia: the national SDS and Sarovic that they would not be punished for being on good terms with the fallen Belgrade regime, Dodik and SNSD that he would be awarded for his whole-hearted help to the democratic opposition in Serbia and Ivanic and PDP that "democratic, modern and patriotic parties like his, stand a chance".

Tanja Topic

(AIM)