Bosnia & Herzegovina Before the Third Elections

Slogans for the Last Chance

In reply to the slogan launched by OSCE “Outvote Corruption”, Party of Democratic Action (SDA) launched its own: “Outvote Injustice and Lies” – What are the arguments in favour of SDA remaining in power – The (only) result of the five-year rule: four kilometres of low-quality highway – Reasons for change – How to give Bosnia back its soul

AIM Sarajevo, October 3, 2000

The situation in Bosnia & Herzegovina and its surroundings (Croatia and Serbia) on the eve of November elections is not beneficial for the ruling ethnic parties and their preservation of power. On the other hand, it will be very difficult for the opposition if it wins power in the devastated country. Will the third general elections in a row bring about a change? Barry, Petritsch and other Westerners appeal for changes. According to their view, these elections are the last chance for Bosnia & Herzegovina, and the choice is clearly presented: it will either join European integration processes (Council of Europe) and set out on the road to economic survival, or the West will give up on this country and let it sink into general poverty.

Symbol of Unsuccessful Rule

The election campaign in B&H, stifled by the turmoil in Serbia, started with a specific war of slogans. From posters and TV spots, OSCE is sending its message: “Outvote Corruption”. Corruption has become the key of all problems in B&H, without exception and in both entities. Its political meaning is broader than enjoying privileges with the help of power. Corruption has become the symbol of the ten-year long rule of ethnic parties, their fraud, crime, haggling in privatisation, incapability to move the economy from the standstill, to enable banished persons to return to their homes and make a stable state. In the statement issued last Saturday in which he explained reasons for imposing the law on uniform passport and consequences of the failure of the federal government to get 150 million dollars of aid due to the refusal to pass the new law on retirement insurance, the High Representative said: “B&H politicians are irresponsible, incompetent liars”, threatening that “the international community may withdraw from B&H”.

Izetbegovic' SDA answered with the slogan “Outvote Injustice and Lies”. Forecasts that this slogan, apart from the opposition, would be addressed to the international community, proved to be correct. A day after that of OSCE, from the top of SDA arrived a statement in which the international community was accused of “launching a bias election campaign”. This is an allusion to the OSCE slogan “Outvote Corruption” which is perceived by the ruling Bosniac party as “a pebble in their shoe” as well as Petritsch's statement on irresponsibility of domestic politicians in which he and other high-ranking diplomats call the voters to vote for changes.

No Enemy in Sight

Among the leadership of SDA nervousness and fear of losing power is felt. There are few elements which do not speak in favour of ethnic parties, but especially of SDA. They are: the debacle in local elections in April in which the Bosniac electorate manifested that it was mature for changes, changes in the environment (Croatia and Serbia), discredited SDA cadre and their incapability to prevent economic collapse, and the announced departure of Alija Izetbegovic from state Presidency on October 12 is marked as the “end of Izetbegovic's era”. The fall of Tudjman's regime has had favourable effects in B&H which are reflected in normalisation of inter-state relations and weakening of popularity of the Croat Democratic Community (HDZ). Milosevic's debacle and unpreparedness for peaceful transfer of power is discrediting his allies in Republika Srpska, the Radicals and Serb Democratic Party (SDS). By weakening of Croat and Serb nationalism, SDA is losing the main argument in favour of homogenisation of the Bosniacs which was founded on fear of others.

The slogan “Outvote Injustice and Lies” is not a very good choice. It is a substitution for the lack of a positive platform for execution of power and economic reforms. That is why attention is diverted to general principles. The concept of injustice is convenient for being included in demagogic speeches in the concept of “the people” or “Bosnia & Herzegovina” which are unquestioned values in Bosniac electorate. Irregularly paid pensions, social misery or absence of mass return of banished persons will be presented as “injustice of international community”. On the other hand, the regime is much better but it has to defend itself from “lies”, that is Petritsch's assessment that “the politicians are incapable and irresponsible liars”.

But, how will the regime defend itself from catastrophic effects of its ten-year rule? The story about threatened B&H, danger of extermination of the Bosniacs or threatened religion, has lost credibility. Everybody knows not only that the presence of international community is a guarantor of integrity of B&H, but that without foreigners B&H would have dissolved a long time ago. After five years of peace, the argument of the war as a pretext for social poverty does not exist any more. The essence is in the incapability of the regime to offer an economic and social platform. With what achievements can the current authorities defend its survival in power? The only tangible result is the four-kilometre long highway at the western exit from Sarajevo. A cute anecdote says: in a bus from Gruda to Sarajevo, a defiant elderly Croat is wearing a memorial badge from the Second World War on the lapel of his coat. A woman teases him and asks what is the difference between the then regime and the current one. “The former regime built the Samac-Sarajevo railroad in a year, and the current one is not capable to run a train on this railroad for five years”, is the answer.

The lack of awareness of the future is another drawback of the politicians in this regime. An illustration of it was presented by Mladen Ivankovic, the candidate of the independent list called “Working for Progress”: “I know people from HDZ in Siroki Brijeg who know everything – from the seventh century to this day. And when they tell me all that, I say: fine, and where shall we go tomorrow. That, they do not know!” The heaviest blow was struck at the regime in an interview by Dr. Sacir Filandra, professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Sarajevo who was until recently believed by Bosniac regime to be its supporter: “I would not recommend to any Serb or Croat to live under Bosniac regime such as this one”. He said that ethnic elite strives through privatisation and restitution to make ten families masters of Bosnia which according to his assessment leads to feudalisation.

Back to Square One

In persuading the voters not to vote for changes, there is only one argument left – fear. Alija Izetbegovic repeated several times that in case of the victory of Social Democratic Party the only result would be polarisation of the Bosniac electorate, while nothing would essentially change because SDP would still have SDS and HDZ as its partners in power. And that would be “back to square one”, as Izetbegovic put it. This thesis is highly controversial. Even if SDS takes over primacy in RS and HDZ keeps its in the Croat part of the Federation, a big change would occur. First, in the new relation of political forces in the Federation, SDP would not enter a coalition with HDZ as SDA is doing in destruction of this country. HDZ would not be able to claim that the Croats are neglected since SDP will have a sufficient number of Croats on its lists of candidates from among the Croat people, and the possibility of a partnership with the Croat opposition bloc has been opened. Second, even if SDS prevails in B&H Parliament, and even if it wins some seats in the Council of Ministers (and this is hard to believe because the Office of High Representative can give the mandate to individually the strongest party in the country – and this is SDP – to form the government pursuant its platform) a complete new situation will be created. The alleged ethnic argument used by the leaders of all three ethnic oligarchies against SDP and its cadre will disappear or be weakened; it will have to seek more reasonable arguments and this in itself leads to a normal debate.

In five post-war years Bosnia & Herzegovina has changed, but the main problems remained because the ethic concept did not allow progress. The change of concept and multiethnic regime are the only chance for stability of B&H and the future of the state. With their interventions, Bildt, Westendorp and Petritsch have held B&H together, but they still have not given it back its soul. The political force that gives Bosnia & Herzegovina back its soul will be able to say that it has saved this country.

Emir HABUL

(AIM Sarajevo)