Montenegro in Expectation of Denouement in Serbia

Commotion Inside SNP?

Certain statements of the leaders of Socialist People's Party (SNP) point out that in spite of public boasting with success considerations have started in this party whether linking their destiny to Milosevic is the best option for the future of SNP. Is this an announcement of a split within SNP?

AIM Podgorica, September 30, 2000

To remain with Milosevic or leave the sinking ship? This question seems to increasingly preoccupy the leaders of Socialist People's Party, until recently the loyal Milosevic's ally and coalition partner of the left coalition in Serbia.

"The decision about the coalition partner on the federal level will be made by our main board when the election results in FRY become completely clear and pure", said for Vijesti daily in Podgorica Zoran Zizic, vice-president of Socialist People's Party, mentioning that the most important thing for this party is the survival of "strong and democratic Yugoslavia".

This statement provoked numerous reactions in Montenegro.

"Who will SNP make the federal state with", wondered vice-president of People's Party Predrag Drecun, speaking to journalists at a press conference. "SNP is now feverishly trying to change tracks and join the democratic train and wash hands of Milosevic", Drecun concluded.

Vice-president of Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) Svetozar Marovic was not inclined to believe the people from SNP either. "Let their representatives publish the results of the elections for the sake of the public, for the sake of democracy and joint experience in defence of the principle of fair elections we have been developing for years in Montenegro", said Marovic stressing that, as proof of the democratic shift, the people from SNP would have to refrain from participation in the federal government which represents a minority both in Serbia and in Montenegro.

"The federal government they are talking about, in order to have the majority would have to be the government of JUL, SPS and SNP. That would be the government of losers, not of winners. The leftists have lost in the landslide in Serbia, and SNP in Montenegro won slightly more than 20 per cent of the votes. A minority in Serbia and Montenegro cannot rule the state", Marovic is explicit.

But reactions from the coalition regime, except for criticism of inconsistency of SNP, did not even try to offer an answer to the question whether Milosevic's partners in Montenegro were giving up on their recent ally?

The fact is that the results of federal elections seriously shook up the position of Socialist People's Party. In Montenegro, their call to participate in federal elections was obeyed by only 24 per cent of the citizens, and election defeat of their presidential candidate announces that their position on the political scene of FRY could be even more difficult. Kostunica stressed in the name of DOS that the mandate for prime minister would be given to somebody from DOS which directly threatened the position of the current federal prime minister and president of SNP Momir Bulatovic.

Sources from Socialist People's Party say that a day after the elections, Momir Bulatovic sharply criticised his party comrades from Podgorica for the badly done pre-election job. At one moment, revolted, Momir Bulatovic even submitted resignation to the post of the president of the party. Later on Bulatovic withdrew the resignation and officially nothing important happened within SNP.

It is also interesting that post-election statements in Montenegro were made solely by vice-presidents of SNP Predrag Bulatovic and Zoran Zizic, while president of SNP Momir Bulatovic has not addressed the voters in Montenegro. And while Predrag Bulatovic said that the main board of SNP would reach the decision on cooperation with parties in federal parliament, Momir Bulatovic expressed absolute loyalty to SPS and JUL, appearing at joint press conferences in Belgrade. For instance, while vice-president Zoran Zizic said that it would be necessary "to check the results published by the Federal Electoral Committee with the results of DOS, Momir Bulatovic declared that his party was already preparing for the second round of the elections and offering support to Milosevic.

It is not the first time that differences in the stands and behavior of the people in the leadership of SNP have become visible. During NATO strikes Momir Bulatovic insisted on intensification of the political struggle with the coalition in power in Montenegro while the Podgorica faction headed by Predrag Bulatovic acted much more moderately and even signed the peace Resolution ratified by Montenegrin parliament.

There was no agreement inside SNP about the election strategy for local elections in Herceg Novi and Podgorica either. Then an order arrived from Belgrade conveyed by Momir Bulatovic that it was necessary to run in the elections in coalition with JUL, the Radicals and some of the other, minor Serb parties in Montenegro. The part of SNP in Podgorica was not enthusiastic about the idea, Predrag Bulatovic publicly expressed discontent because of “loss of identity of the party”. After the elections Predrag Bulatovic even offered his resignation to the post of the vice-president, but it was not accepted by the leadership of the party.

During the recent federal election campaign tensions increased whenever members of SNP from Belgrade headed by Momir Bulatovic arrived. For example, Bulatovic annulled the decision on control of the elections which had already been agreed by vice-presidents of SNP and DPS in bilateral meetings.

Nowadays, after the federal elections, the situation is quite difficult for this party and different stands are evident. Socialist People's Party is losing positions in Montenegro step by step: the total of 170 thousand votes Momir Bulatovic had won in the second round of presidential elections was reduced to only 100 thousand votes of support in federal elections. It is true, however, that the number of seats won in the federal parliament opens the possibility for negotiations.

But the problem with SNP is that it has unconditionally linked its destiny to Slobodan Milosevic. Now, when the leader has weakened in Serbia, problems for Socialist People's Party are multiplying. Many analysts in Montenegro interpret the statement of Zoran Zizic (about the need for a compromise between the Federal Electoral Commission and DOS) as opening of a line of retreat for this party in case of Milosevic's defeat.

But this will not be easy. Kostunica has calmly ignored the bashful offer of SNP, and Momir Bulatovic, as sources in SNP say, does not wish to even consider such a possibility. Polls on popularity of politicians from SNP also indicate that it is not easy to suddenly change the ten-year long policy. Within SNP, according to a poll conducted by Damar agency, Slobodan Milosevic ranks second, behind Predrag Bulatovic. In other words: it will be difficult to explain to their own supporters, especially in the north of Montenegro, the sudden change of policy. Perhaps that is the reason and perhaps because of the pressure exerted from Belgrade, vice-president Zoran Zizic said that his declaration on plans of SNP after federal elections was “wrongly interpreted”!

It seems that the faction in Podgorica has decided to wait for a while longer to see what direction the denouement of the situation in Belgrade will take. This might prove to be the correct policy, but it might also cut both ways: when Milosevic falls, maybe nobody will care to ask the people from Socialist People's Party to become part of some coalition or political alliance.

Branko VOJICIC

(AIM)