General Elections in B&H

Shall We Vote for Changes?

AIM SARAJEVO, September 28, 2000

While as much as 62 percent of people under 35 years of age is considering the idea of leaving the country, Bosnia and Herzegovina is embarking on another electoral campaign "for change". Namely, at general elections scheduled for November 11, the citizens will elect delegates to the state Parliament, entity and cantonal parliaments, as well as President and Vice-Presidents of the Republic of Srpska, but also delegates to the communal council of Srebrenica which were not elected at the last local elections in April. "These are the last elections in B&H to be financed by OSCE!" said deputy chief of OSCE Mission in B&H, Care Vollan, announcing the budget of 9 million Euros (something over DM 18 million) for this voting process.

There is no category of population in B&H which is satisfied with the current authorities, except for themselves and their followers! Pensioners are not getting their pensions, and when they do they are worth nothing. Young people feel that they have no prospects here because no one cares for the accumulated problems burdening their future

• there is no good quality education, no students' hostels, nor recognition of diplomas throughout the country, and the employment opportunities are a fairy tale. Middle-aged people, still capable of work, also do not see any future for themselves. The transition process has not yet started, the economy is hardly managing to break even, large-scale privatisation has not begun, possibilities for opening small-scale business are non-existent, and administrative obstacles for starting any kind of activity, are huge and almost insurmountable.

Businessmen who could successful claim that the state did nothing to protect or stimulate them in any way - there are over 500 illegal border crossings, taxes and duties are enormous, but so are the proportions of their evasion, while smuggling, crime and corruption flourish. Refugees cannot and have nowhere to return, and if they manage to, they do not know what to live on. Experts of the international community have announced the forthcoming economic collapse of the country and Ambassadors of donor-countries the reduction of donations, while OSCE has covered the country with posters with only one message: "Vote for Change, Outvote the Corruption".

It is at these elections that for the first time B&H will not be one electoral unit for state Parliament, nor will entities for the entity parliaments. Representatives will be delegated from multi-member electoral units the borders of which have been drawn by OSCE (for example, parts of Sarajevo and Gorazde constitute one electoral unit, although these towns are capitals of different Cantons). Many are against such a solution and think that Parliaments will be composed of local power-holders, but OSCE claims that this will contribute to the establishment of stronger links between the delegates and citizens.

The voters will express their will on open slates which means that they can place their trust in specific candidates personally, or in a number of them, and not only in entire parties. Another novelty is preferential voting for a presidential and vice-presidential teams in the Republic of Srpska, which means that, in addition to the team they cast their vote for - they will preferentially vote for the team they rank as second or third. In case the team they have voted for does not pass, their votes are not discarded, but transferred to the team which is next on the voter's list. This will give an opportunity for one of the offered teams to secure the support of more than a half of their voters.

This pre-election period is marked by the dissatisfaction of a large number of the electoral participants with the fact that the method of electing delegates to the House of Nations of state Parliament has not been yet determined. At the same time, the decision of the Constitutional Court of B&H, on the constitutiveness of all three nations on the entire B&H territory, has to be implemented by the time of November elections and the Rules and Procedures of the Provisional Electoral Commission (PIK) coordinated with that decision. But, that has not been done so far. OSCE Provisional Electoral Commission has dedicated much of its time to the preparation of new decrees of the Provisional Rules and Regulations so as to enable the disqualification of corrupted individuals from the electoral race (eg. the rule on the incompatibility of functions, on the abuse of housing space, etc.). Those who were not properly registered were also eliminated from the list of candidates. A rule is soon to be adopted according to which all those who at previous elections were nominated just for the sake of "cosmetic reasons" and not because of their work in the institutions of the system, will also be deleted from these lists.

This year's pre-election race for the highest authorities differs in some other aspects from the previous two post-war ones (in 1996 and 1998). In the first place, a much smaller number of political parties is running in these elections. In contrast to over 100 parties which took part in 1996 elections and nearly 100 in 1998, only 54 political entities will appear on this year's slates, out of which 4 are lists of independent candidates and 43 belong to political parties. Some smaller parties, like the Liberal Party and the Liberal-Bosniac Party, have joined forces, but there is an evident absence of large coalitions such as SDA's Coalition for Integral and Democratic B&H or Coalition SLOGA (HARMONY) in RS. The "closest" race could be that between four or five political parties - the current ruling ones at the state and entity level which are not competing against each other (SDA, HDZ and SDS), then Social-Democratic Party of B&H (SDP) which, judging by recently held local elections is a favourite, Milorad Dodik's Independent Social-Democrats and, possibly, Mladen Ivancic's PDP in RS. Namely, the mentioned parties (except for the newly established PDP) have scored the most important results at communal elections.

In contrast to earlier electoral processes, when "national interest" was voters' prior concern and when they expected the candidates they had placed their trust in, to have precisely those values at heart, things have significantly changed. Today B&H citizens are mostly interested in new jobs, security and safety, better quality education, return of the refugees and displaced. (Five years after the signing of the Dayton Peace Accords some 1.4 million persons have not yet returned to their homes - as much as half of them are even outside B&H!) National interests come after all these concerns and only for a negligible percentage of voters (which is admittedly somewhat higher in RS than in F B&H).

According to the latest surveys of the coalition of non-governmental organisations "Elections 2000", which will monitor the elections, as much as 81.8 percent of B&H citizens (the poll was carried out in 100 communes on a sample of 2,500 citizens) intend to turn out for the elections. Also, as many as 77 non-governmental organisations from all over Bosnia and Herzegovina (they say that the number is growing daily) are included in this Coalition of Non-Governmental Organisations which is planning a public campaign for the education of voters and their mobilisation so that they would turn out for the elections, as well as to monitor the campaign of political parties, the elections and the implementation of results.

Although the pre-election campaign has officially begun on September 27, the political campaign never stopped after the April elections. And while OSCE again invited voters to register and check their registrations (some 2.5 million voters have registered) and the international community called to vote for change, the ruling national oligarchies kept practically the same direction - everyone, the whole world, is against them!

HDZ homogenised the Croatian nation finding enemies in all kinds of places. SDA did the same, but primarily by digging up mass graves and announcing the construction of tent refugee settlements in RS, even in the centre of Banjaluka! The main candidate on the SDA slate for state Parliament is the first man of the State Missing Persons Agency, Amor Masovic, well-known for his habit of going down every pit believed to be a mass grave, so that it will be interesting to see his behaviour during pre-election campaign. Masovic was much criticised for putting his name at the top of the list, but his only comment to this was: "No one else called me!". SDS is getting into full swing searching for arguments against the current RS Government and according to analysts it has good chances in RS because they are the only ones who are offering "pure nationalism, while all others are suspicious!" On the other hand, the strongest opposition party Social-Democratic Party of B&H, is basing its campaign on the "fight with arguments": more serious involvement in state Parliament, opening of offices and branches all over B&H (primarily in RS and the so called Herzeg-Bosnia), but also presentation of the situation it inherited after the April elections in communes in which it won prefect posts and the publication of achieved results, which are not negligible. The international community is helping the opposition by unmasking crime among the ranks of the authorities or the connection between the authorities and state smuggling chain by exposing executors and those who had commissioned terrorist acts like the murder of the Federal Deputy Minister of the Interior, Joze Leutar.

According to the survey of the American National Democratic Institute, two months before the elections "some new winds have started blowing in B&H". Namely, in practically the entire B&H Federation the majority of electors have stated their intention to vote for the Social-Democratic Party of B&H. SDS is still in the lead in RS, but only among 30 percent of that entity's electorate, followed by Dodik's and Mladen Ivancic's parties. Although these are first pre-election surveys, with many to follow by November 11, these results were followed by a comment that the will of electors does not usually change in the last 40 days before the elections no matter how intensive the struggle for votes becomes.

The latest events in Serbia (irrespective of Milosevic's refusal to admit his defeat), as well as not so distant democratisation of the neighbouring Croatia and the SDP's victory at local elections in the greater part of B&H, proved that right were those who claimed that these were not only the last elections to be organised by OSCE, but also the last to be held according to the rules under which the national aspect has advantage over the economic one. On the other hand, the figure that as many as 30 percent of B&H citizens, mostly disappointed voters of SDA-HDZ and SDA, as well as a large number of Bosnians and Herzegovinians who have their suitcases packed, have not yet decided whom to give their vote to, raise doubts about the quality of programmes offered by alternative parties and changes they can bring after the elections.

Rubina CENGIC

(AIM Sarajevo)