Elections in Macedonia

Glancing Over the Border

Although engrossed in proper local elections and numerous problems they have brought about, the Macedonian public is anxiously awaiting elections in neighbouring FR Yugoslavia as well, aware that the stability in the region and, to a great extent the future of Macedonia, depend on their outcome.

AIM Skoplje, September 22, 2000

In numerous international analyses, local elections in Macedonia have been depicted as the first episode that has launched the running or unfolding of a "soap opera" titled "Elections in the Balkans in Autumn of 2000". Local politicians comment on events in the neighbouring country sporadically. The firstdoor neighbour in the north is not particularly inspiring for electoral propagandists. Where international politics is concerned, criticism of the policy the president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia Slobodan Milosevic pursues has long since turned into a generally held stand. And, it must be admitted, local elections are neither the occasion nor the place for discussing foreign affairs.

Nevertheless, Arben Xhaferi, the leader of the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA), the coalition partner in Ljubce Georgievski's government, without doubt leads by far in the condemnation of Milosevic's regime. The way he puts it, his criticism of Slobodan Milosevic's regime is at all times the paradigm of certain aspects of the state of mind of local politicians, particularly those belonging to the opposition camp of the "reformed left" headed by the leader of the Social Democratic Union, Branko Crvenkovski, and is frequently reminiscent of the "historical figure and feats" of the former president of Macedonia, Kiro Gligorov. But, in the heat of the political struggle Xhaferi has also experienced something exceedingly paradoxical which merely proves true the maxim that "he who lives by the sword, dies by the sword".

Mahi Nesimi, secretary of the rival Party for Democratic Prosperity (PDP), regarded by many as being the victim of the violence perpetuated by the activists of Xhaferi's party, has accused the leader of the DPA in person of collaborating with Milosevic's secret service! Such a "treat" the media, naturally, could not let slip by!

By staging massive protests throughout Macedonia a few months ago, it appeared as though the Macedonian opposition was inclined to resort to the identical strategy the Serbian opposition had employed earlier. But, the true effect of these gatherings was never made public by the local opposition. This reminded analysts of a similar situation dating a couple of years back when the presently ruling VMRO-DPMNE, a non-parliamentary opposition party at the time, was the organizer of street gatherings corresponding with protests staged by the opponents of Milosevic's regime. For the sake of truth, the causes differed; protestors marching all over Serbia were demanding that the electoral victory stolen from them be restituted, while demonstrators in Skopje were calling for the denial of the right of Albanian students to study in their mother-tongue. In the meantime, circumstances in Macedonia have altered essentially and remained unchanged in Serbia.

Not failing to seize the opportunity of placing events in the region into the context of conflicts at home, the leader of the present-day opposition Branko Crvenkovski has in a TV interview wished for this electoral autumn to bring about " the defeat of Slobodan Milosevic in FR Yugoslavia, Hasim Thaci in Kosovo and of Ljubco Georgievski in Macedonia." In the midst of the election campaign, the pro-government "Nova Makedonija" fiercely attacked the ambassador of FR Yugoslavia Zoran Janackovic, accusing him of interfering with internal affairs of Macedonia, thus indirectly reflecting the attitude of the ruling coalition towards the actual regime in Belgrade. The pro-government newspaper could not forgive Milosevic's diplomat the encounter with the leadership of the newly formed VMRO-VMRO (in governmental circles viewed as schismatical) which has undermined the greatly emphasized monolithism of the ruling VMRO-DPNE.

When, just three days before the second round of local elections in Macedonia, i.e. general elections in FR Yugoslavia, Prime Minister Georgievski stated that there were reasons to suspect that certain foreign diplomats were "involved in undiplomatic activities", a number of commentators interpreted his remark as an allusion to Janackovic himself. The Prime Minister has provided sufficient room for various interpretations. Moreover, a fact that can hardly be described as immaterial: during the past 18 months, the present administration has not managed to outgrow the distrust towards the political establishment in Belgrade. This was caused by a number of things; two of the three parties constituting the ruling coalition in Macedonia - VMRO-DPMNE and the Democratic Party of Albanians - regard the actual president of FR Yugoslavia as the main culprit for all the ills that have befallen the people of the region during the last decade. But, in doing so, they inadvertently slipped into a contradiction. If, as they themselves claim, their parties represent the "custodians of former Yugoslavia", this also implies that what they have stood for in the past ten years and they themselves, would not have come to be without Milosevic. Furthermore, there is a wide-spread belief that the dispute concerning the state-boundary will not be resolved until the regime in Belgrade changes; nor can the issue of the succession of the formerly mutual country be regarded as insignificant...

Macedonian officials have chosen the president of Montenegro Milo Djukanovic as their interlocutor from the opposite side of the northern state-line long ago. Mr. Djukanovic has participated in or attended as an observer several gatherings of the Stability Pact in the course of which Macedonia lobbied on behalf of Podgorica. At the recent diplomatic gatherings organized by the international community – the encounter of the American Secretary of State Madeleine Albright with foreign secretaries of countries bordering on FR Yugoslavia which took place on the margins of the "millennium" session of the United Nations in New York, for example - Macedonian presence was noticeable. Macedonian media cover the Serbian political scene daily, supporting the victory of the opposition either openly or with a measure of restraint. At the very start of the election campaign, several weeklies of highly dissimilar, even opposing orientations, published interviews with the presidential candidate of the democratic opposition, Vojislav Kostunica. The two inevitable questions he was requested to answer referred to the likely developments in Montenegro and his relation to the international community in the event of his electoral victory. These are the very two issues the Macedonian public views as deeply significant when the stability of their country is concerned. To be sure, no one is disregarding the fact that the presidential candidate of the Serbian opposition is a nationalist, but his nationalism is seen as being "cultivated".

Scant commentaries appearing in the newspapers convey the feeling that on the 24th of September a duel between "David and Goliath" will take place. In other words, analysts doubt that the president of FR Yugoslavia Slobodan Milosevic will, if defeated, willingly step down from power. Local correspondents from Belgrade noted a significant dissimilarity in the manner the pro-government and independent papers and agencies covered the results of the first round of local elections in Macedonia, particularly the obvious advantage of the Macedonian opposition. Newspapers, radio-stations and TV centres controlled by the government tended to stress the advantage of the left block, while the opposition media gave preference to the initiative of the opposition. The suggestive information released by the Yugoslav state agency TANJUG which implied the readiness of the Macedonian government to disclaim the constitutional name of the country in return for Athens lobbying on behalf of Macedonia, i.e. its admittance to the European Union and NATO, was put into the same context.

Skopje received the prognosis of the onetime American diplomat, former American ambassador to Belgrade Warren Zimmerman, that Milosevic's possible victory in the elections would bring about the independence of Kosovo and, possibly, the destabilization of Macedonia and Montenegro, with trepidation.

AIM Skopje

ZELJKO BAJIC