Montenegro and Federal Elections

Debacle of Momir Bulatovic

It turned out that Bulatovic had made a wrong calculation: more than one third of his membership did not appear at the polling stations. When Montenegro is concerned, the winner is the one who sat on the fence and did not appear in the federal elections - Montenegrin president Milo Djukanovic. The call to boycott the elections was obeyed by 75 per cent of the citizens of Montenegro

AIM Podgorica, September 25, 2000

Catastrophe, fiasco, debacle, the beginning of the end of supporters of Belgrade regime... In different ways media are trying to describe what has happened on September 24 to the Socialist People's Party (SNP) of Momir Bulatovic in federal elections in Montenegro.

Figures convincingly speak of the proportions of the election earthquake that hit SNP. Despite thunderous announcements of mass turnout of voters, in the end when polling stations were shut down and when late that evening the results arrived, it was clear that hardly 25 per cent of the voters in Montenegro had voted in federal elections. More precisely still: on September 24, at the polling stations there appeared thirty thousand people less than those who in 1998 parliamentary elections had voted for SNP and the parties of the Serb block. Bulatovic's party, Serb People's Party and Yugoslav United Left (JUL) in the elections for parliament had won support of about 135 thousand people, and now in federal elections, according to precise data provided by controllers of Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS), hardly 109 thousand voters voted. Spokesmen of the Socialist People's Party best testify about confusion and post-election shock. On Sunday evening at about 23.00 h, Neven Gasovic, chairman of the Election Commission of Montenegro, stated that about 150 thousand people had voted in Montenegro, claiming that "35 per cent of the voters appeared" at the polls, "without the rural population".

Just an hour prior to that, Gosovic's words were denied by his party colleague. Vice-president of SNP Zoran Zizic stated that 130 thousand voters voted in Montenegro, but - unlike Gosovic - Zizic calculated that this was in fact 43 per cent of the electorate!? And the very next day, at a press conference, Zizic denied his own words. "Additional data which arrived during the night show that a smaller number of voters appeared at the polls than I said last night. We do not have exact data, but the number of those who voted is somewhere between the number stated by DOS and the one I stated", said Zizic, evidently flustered and caught unprepared by figures that spoke against the policy he represents.

If the people from SNP were utterly shocked, their opponents from Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) were ready to rejoice publicly. "These elections are proof of yet another political debacle of political violence at the centre of which is Belgrade dictatorship, and its services in Montenegro are just carry it out", said Miodrag Vukovic, member of executive board of DPS and advisor of Montenegrin president Djukanovic.

"Of course, results show that as of today SNP does not even have the support in seven municipalities where it is in power", Vukovic made a point.

Data from the field justify Vukovic's analysis. Except for the municipality of Andrijevica where 60 per cent of the citizens went to the polls, Pluzine where the turnout was 51 per cent and Kolasin where exactly half of registered voters exercised their right (50.28%), in all the other municipalities the turnout of the voters was simply crushing for the Socialist People's Party and its coalition partners JUL and Serb People's Party.

The lowest turnout, as expected, was in Montenegrin old capital Cetinje where only 4.06 per cent of registered voters actually voted. Very poor turnout was in Rozaje as well (5.23 per cent), Ulcinj (6/70), Bar (14.95), Kotor (15.69), Plav (17.78)... But the biggest surprise without any doubt was the voting in the north of Montenegro, the traditional stronghold of Socialist People's Party.

In Bijelo Polje, 25 per cent decided to vote, in Berane 33 per cent and in Herceg Novi, "the southernmost Serb town" where Bulatovic's supporters won in local elections and where military police was guarding the voting - only 33.60 per cent!

The results from two biggest cities – Podgorica and Niksic – also speak of a definite political defeat. Only 10 thousand voters (20.97 per cent) voted in Niksic, and in Podgorica the results show that SNP has seven thousand supporters less than in May 2000 in local elections (about 25 per cent voted).

Much could be anticipated during the very election day. Almost all Montenegrin towns were deserted, without the customary election throng and commotion. In improvised polling stations, members of polling commissions were mostly bored. Although according to the instructions of the president of the electoral committee, Neven Gosovic, it was possible to vote without identity cards (!), with the exception of the mentioned couple of municipalities, there was no crowds. By two o'clock in the afternoon analysis showed already that things were not going well for SNP: according to controllers of the Democratic Opposition of Serbia by that time only 9.75 per cent of the voters in the Republic voted. Occasional presence of military police in the vicinity of polling stations was also in vain: majority of the citizens did not wish to vote or were impressed by the stand of the state that it was smart to be “busy doing something else that day”.

Then the notorious machinery for electoral manipulations was activated. Suddenly the polling commissions started receiving numerous demands for voting outside polling stations. The procedure of such voting is prescribed by law and it is mostly the “privilege” of those who, due to illness, disability or old age, cannot come to the polling station. But the number of “suddenly disabled” persons in Montenegro grew every hour. By 17.00 h more than 18 thousand such requests were registered! That something was going on that was illegal and irregular was clear when SNP refused to have controllers of DOS follow the voting outside polling stations.

Results of the voting showed that in this way SNP managed to at least slightly mitigate the election debacle: almost nine thousand (more precisely: 8,925) “bed-ridden and ailing” voted on that Sunday which is almost ten per cent of the total turnout of the voters!

At an extraordinary press conference held on Sunday evening, minister of health Miomir Mugosa spoke about the proportions of this sudden “epidemic”, mentioning that health services did not register the appearance of some mysterious illness in Montenegro. “We cannot give the diagnosis, although it seems to me like an illness of lack of votes. But let us not prejudice, our epidemiological teams will visit the ailing voters, and since the epidemic acquired alarming proportions, I am planning to convene a session of the national health council”, assessed ironically Dr. Miomir Mugosa. Nothing could help: although it was not necessary to have identity cards in order to vote, although there were nine per cent of suddenly bed-ridden who allegedly voted for Milosevic, although military police was engaged in the election process -–less than one quarter of Montenegrin citizens responded to the appeal to vote. If out of the total number (109 thousand) the percentage of forged ballots, the percentage of those who voted for Kostunica (almost ten per cent) it turned out that less than 90 thousand voters voted for Socialist People's Party which is less than 35 thousand than in '98 elections.

Where are now the 180 thousand votes of support to Milosevic collected when he was nominated candidate? One of the vice-presidents of SNP, Predrag Bulatovic, stated that others were to blame for this difference. “We had provided 110 thousand votes, people from JUL and SNS were in charge of the rest”, Bulatovic said.

Although everybody from SNP is trying to compensate for the political fiasco with the victory in the elections for the federal assembly, it is quite obvious that they cannot explain what has happened even to their own supporters – where has the belief of Montenegrins in Yugoslavia without alternative vanished? Bulatovic seems to have made the main mistake when he believed without reservation that it would be enough to mention Milosevic's name and everything would be solved for his benefit. Just the contrary appeared to be true: like a passionate gambler who has started to lose, Bulatovic has invested everything into the “last hand” and lost.

To make things even worse for Bulatovic: the one who won is the man who watched the game sitting on the fence – Montenegrin president Djukanovic. Montenegrin coalition government has every reason to gloat, it turned out that their appeal for boycott of illegitimate elections was obeyed by three quarters of the citizens. And now they can calmly wait for the outcome in Serbia and support Kostunica. In circles close to the authorities it is assessed that in case he wins the danger of military action in Montenegro will be definitely eliminated, and that it would be easy to negotiate and reach agreement with Kostunica.

“Nowadays it is clear that when ballots are honestly counted that Milosevic enjoys the support of less than 20 per cent in Montenegro. And if he stays in power by force, in two months this support will be below five per cent”, says Miodrag Vukovic

After September 24, one thing can be claimed with certainty: a chapter of history, at least when Montenegro is concerned, has ended: majority of Montenegrins have said “no” to Milosevic, just as “no” has been said to Yugoslavia based on 1992 Zabljak constitution. But it would not be correct to interpret September results as if the referendum for independent Montenegro has already been completed. After ten years of stumbling, falling, trying to get up, majority of Montenegrins have only now become aware of what they do not want. Montenegrin story about search for lost identity is actually just beginning. The good thing is that they will not have to think and make decisions with a gun pointed at their temple.

Drasko DjURANOVIC

(AIM)