The Macedonian Political Implosion

Irrespective of the future developments surrounding the local elections, the events that marked the first round have sufficiently shaken the local political scene implying potential further and deeper explosive shocks. Macedonia is faced with a serious crisis which according to observers is even greater than the last year crisis with Kosovo.

AIM Skopje, September 14, 2000

"I expect these elections to be the best organised elections ever. I am confident that, from the democratic point of view, they will be crystal clear and without incidents. This will be the way to confirm the maturity of democracy in Macedonia", said Macedonian Prime Minister Ljubco Georgijevski on September 10, several minutes after casting his vote in the first electoral round. Unfortunately, this turned out to be only wishful thinking.

After the first round it became clear that these local elections in Macedonia would not be remembered by their results. In Macedonia "voting against" has become an electoral practice by which the current authorities are being punished and their opposition rewarded, but not because the electorate trusts it or favours it more, but simply because it is punishing the authorities - as the major evil, and at that moment is giving its vote to a lesser evil - the opposition.

These local elections will certainly be remembered by incidents which, although seen at previous elections too, have reached a point at which people voted with guns at several polling places.

The columnist of the daily "Dnevnik" (The News), Ljubomir Frckovski, was right when he stated that "as regards its concept, the campaign has usurped the local elections for the sake of ensuring early national elections. The parade of a whole set of candidates for local functions was just a background for national pathos which the leaders profusely used in their speeches. An outrage!" The opposition managed to shift the political emphasis of the local elections to referendum on the holding of extraordinary parliamentary elections at which, as Vlado Buckovski, spokesman for the Social-Democratic Alliance would put it, the opponents would be "dispersed". The authorities, which wanted to appear "cool" in the Prime Minister's statement that in case the Government coalition won 10 percent votes less than the united opposition, it would propose the calling of extraordinary parliamentary elections by the end of this year. What came as a real surprise in such an atmosphere is the fact that everything "blew up" where it was least desirable - in the Albanian part of the electorate.

Until the very day of the first electoral round, the Albanian partner in the Government coalition, DPA was considered as the most stable party within the coalition. It was the only party spared of internal turmoil. VMRO-DPMNE was shaken by the defection of 6 of its parliamentarians and fearing a veritable stampede of defectors after the electoral defeat. More clearly than ever since it came into being, the Democratic Alternative (DA) proved that it was a one-man party and unable of functioning during the absence of its leader Vasil Tupurkovski from the country (this time he was undergoing a heart surgery in USA). Under such conditions incidents would have been a normal thing in the Macedonian part of the political scene. But, they broke out in their fiercest form in the Albanian part, where DPA and its leader Arben Xhaferi were considered sacrosanct.

It is now clear that, quite superfluously stimulating the atmosphere of its superiority and sure of the efficacy of its several times demonstrated "skilfulness" in manipulating the Albanian votes (the culmination of which were last year's presidential elections when they "produced" a far greater number of Albanian votes for the election of Boris Trajkovski for president), DPA had incited "the enthusiasm" of its activists whose arrogance on the ground was simply impossible to control. Thus, Xhaferi and his chief executioner Thaqi and DPA, found themselves where caught in a situation which every party would gladly avoid. From "heavenly heights" it sunk deep into the mud of crime. It is hard to say what will Xhaferi, as a leader who was, together with his party, the main pillar of stability of the undermined authorities, do in this newly created situation with his partners in power and, what is more important, Western diplomats. Even if they wanted, "his" people in the coalition cannot (for the sake of preserving their already low democratic rating) defend what is impossible to defend and it is quite possible that "playing second fiddle" now quite suits them as they are not in the centre of public attention as the main culprits. All this has its repercussions on the ethnic rating of the Albanians in Macedonia, as well as on the quality of inter-ethnic relations.

On the other hand, after negative estimate of the first electoral round given by numerous international observers, but also local observers sponsored by international institutions, Xhaferi and DPA can hardly enjoy the credibility they had until till September 10.

Naturally, the Albanians, who claimed that only DPA and its leadership were their true representatives, will hold this most against them. Under such circumstances, the behaviour of the opposing Party of Democratic Prosperity (PDP), which is in danger of totally disappearing from the political stage, is quite understandable. PDP expected the local elections to show how much it really weighed. Prospects were rather grim. Incidents and the consequent withdrawal from the electoral race have suddenly offered PDP a possibility to remain and prosper on the political scene. Its headquarters made a very good use of this. First it found a worthy opponent to the attractive manufacturer of various scenarios and convincing accusations from the DPA ranks, Menduh Thaqi, in its Secretary General, Mahi Nesimi. Instead of retreating, which was characteristic of its previous leadership, PDP continued confronting DPA. Succinct highly traditional Albanian ethical rhetoric of the usually colourless PDP leader Imer Imeri, who presented himself as a mature politician capable of making great moves, also brought results.

Consequently, Xhaferi was on the defensive, as he found himself in a political knockdown from which he tried to recover by giving numerous explanatory interviews by which he actually cemented his unenviable position - because he simply wanted to explain something which escapes every logical explanation. Both he and his party were tricked by the mentioned Mahi Nesimi, who threw them a bone of contention with his statement that before returning to Macedonia from Kosovo in 1993, Xhaferi received instructions from the Serbian secret services and that the only efficient thing he had achieved was to disunite the Albanians. Matter-of-factly he also mentioned that Xhaferi and Bubba Moraine (widow of Raman, late Kosovo politician from the eighties, with whom Xhaferi had been allegedly close) were personae non grata in Macedonia.

A chain reaction ensued. First Menduh Thaqi, DPA Vice-President, gave an interview to the Albanian programme of Radio Skoplje and the DPA central electoral headquarters also sent a lengthy statement. On both occasions a vocabulary dominated by terms such as spies, criminals, drug addicts, gangs, traitors, collaborators of the pro-Serbian SDSM, etc. was used. Here again, DPA slit its own throat by using Enver Hoxha's methods in settling accounts with its opponents. Or, in other words, the war started at polling places has continued on the verbal plane. This is certainly better for the society, but still bad for DPA, as a promoter of such political communication.

But, the Albanians are not nor will be the only ones who will pay for what has happened to DPA. The incidents and everything that followed after that are just an additional stone around the neck of the ruling coalition which appears to be totally disoriented. The Government and Prime Minister are pretending to carry out their regular duties as if nothing has happened in the first round of the local elections and even as if they are not being held at all.

For the sake of form, President Trajkovski has made a few moves and went by plane to the opening of Olympic Games in Australia. The return of Tupurkovski from the States is expected as the return of the current Messiah who has a solution up his sleeve for avoiding the pressure for holding the extraordinary parliamentary elections. The State Electoral Commission is in total chaos with counting of votes and has broken all legal deadlines for the publication of precise figures - who got what, who lost what and where the second round will be held on September 24. The opposition is triumphantly organising press conferences offering its information which are totally contrary to those announced by the Government's electoral headquarters so that, for example, the front page of today's "Nova Makedonija" (New Macedonia) carried a title "Greater support for the authorities than for the united opposition". On the other hand, weekly "Danes" (Today) dedicated its front page to the "The Downfall of the Authorities". And, naturally, both are writing about the same elections and results.

AIM Skopje

ISO RUSI