Montenegrin Regime and Serbian Opposition

The End of a Short Love Affair

Due to its decision not to take part in federal elections, except for with Milosevic, Montenegrin regime is on its way to wage war with Serbian opposition, which increases the uncertainty of survival of the federal state

AIM Podgorica, August 31, 2000

By the decision not to run in the elections Montenegrin president Milo Djukanovic has risked to lose his allies in Serbia - Serbian opposition. With majority of the leaders of this variegated group he reached an informal alliance three years ago when he confronted Milosevic. The joint enemy brought about the rapprochement of Djukanovic with a significant part of Serbian opposition. Both parties in this unofficial coalition disregarded mutual differences, especially the ones on state and legal status of Montenegro and re-arrangement of the unstable dying federation.

Djukanovic's coalition advocates a loose union with Serbia, which was stated in the official document of Montenegrin government - the Platform on Redefining Relations between Montenegro and Serbia. The Platform was in principle, but only as one of the solutions that could be a topic of talks, supported by the most prominent leaders of Serbian opposition. But there is a whole wing of Milosevic's opponents from Belgrade gathered around different parties who have advocated a firm union of Montenegro and Serbia during their ten-year activities.

One of the most prominent representatives of this faction is Vojislav Kostunica, candidate of the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) for president of FRY.

“The rhetoric of Vojislav Kostunica on Montenegro is approximately the same as the rhetoric of Socialist People's Party (SNP) and Serb People's Party (SNS), an ultra-nationalistic, non-parliamentary Montenegrin party”, estimates Milan Popovic, sociologist from Podgorica and one of the most influential independent political analysts. Popovic reproached Kostunica and a part of Serbian opposition that they had abandoned the concept of Greater Serbia in relation to Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo, not because they became aware of its tragic consequences, but because of the newly established military and political reality.

“And when Montenegro is concerned, it is considered to be the only remaining territory where expansionist concept of Greater Serbia can exist”, says Popovic.

Indeed, Belgrade opposition circles seem to be forgetting the reason why the ruling Montenegrin parties are not running in federal elections: the state and legal status of Montenegro. The decision to boycott elections has been reached after illegal passing of the amendments of the Constitution of FRY which simply wiped out the principle of federalism and reduced Montenegro to a region.

“Constitutional amendments are just a pretext for not running in the elections. At this moment Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) is not ready to test its strength against SNP Milosevic will lose the elections, which will bring about dissolution of Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) and the repressive machinery. In such a situation SNP will attempt to disassociate itself from Milosevic and it will reach an agreement with Serbian opposition. All that will put Djukanovic in a very difficult position”, says Mladjan Dinkic, member of G17 and economic advisor of Vojislav Kostunica.

The assumption about the possible alliance of Serbian opposition and the greatest Djukanovic's opponent in Montenegro, Bulatovic's SNP, was sharply criticised by president of Helsinki Committee of Serbia, Sonja Biserko: “This just additionally illustrates inconsistency of Serbian opposition. And it reveals its essential attitude towards Montenegro which does not differ from that of Milosevic's regime. In its former offers for redefining FRY, the opposition has looked upon Montenegro as nothing but a region, which conceals a unitarianist concept”.

The announcement of the union with pro-Milosevic's forces in Montenegro after a possible victory of Serbian opposition met with a comparatively mild reaction of official Podgorica which obviously does not wish to open a new front in Serbia with its recent allies. “These statements are a part of political marketing in order to win votes in Serbia, we have understanding for that kind of communication”, said prime minister Filip Vujanovic on the occasion of his recent meeting with American senator Robert Dole in Dubrovnik.

However, this “understanding” did not interrupt an avalanche of accusations from Belgrade. On the contrary, they just flared up. Vojislav Kostunica accused Djukanovic that by the decision not to participate in the elections he was giving Milosevic as a gift fifty seats in the federal assembly which belonged to Montenegro. Kostunica has gone even one step further and criticised Djukanovic that he was: “secretly and silently in the election competition between us and Milosevic – supporting Milosevic”. He also accused Djukanovic of inconsistency and even cowardice: “You don't know whether he (Djukanovic) is in favour of the federal state or not. He need not be in favour of it, but if he is not he must have the guts, don't let me use another word, to force the issue into the open”. And according to Kostunica the issue can be forced into the open very simply. “Montenegro must declare itself. If it shall not participate in the elections, there is the referendum. And if it shall neither go to the elections nor to the referendum, there is something third – uprising, rebellion”, says Kostunica.

But an uprising and rebellion is exactly the reason why the ruling Montenegrin coalition is delaying the question of the referendum. Fear that declaration on independence of Montenegro could provoke Milosevic to start another war is not unfounded. There is primarily the experience of former Yugoslav republics. Only Macedonia has avoided the punishment of Milosevic's armed forces when it declared its independence. Fear that Montenegro might share the experience of Bosnia & Herzegovina is stirred up by activities of the Army of Yugoslavia in the small republic in the past months and statements of generals that “territorial integrity of FRY shall be defended at all costs”. That is why the haste Kostunica is urging Djukanovic to make could be a dangerous game of Russian roulette and not a contribution to resolution of Yugoslav crisis.

In any case the story of Serbian opposition and sharp criticism of Djukanovic's regime might open a new series of problems in FRY: after the quarrel with Milosevic, Montenegrin regime will have to endure the announced controversies with a part of Serbian opposition.

Milka TADIC – MIJOVIC

(AIM)