Elections in Montenegro

Victories, Defeats and Resignations

They all claim that they are winners. But Predrag Bulatovic offered his resignation after the defeat in Podgorica, and so did Svetozar Marovic after the debacle in Herceg Novi. Is this a foreboding of new divisions?

AIM Podgorica, 12 June, 2000

There were no fireworks, but early in the morning on Monday there was a big celebration: deafening sound of sirens, a large number of cars in the streets with flags of Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and symbols from the time when Montenegro was an independent kingdom, chanting “Milo, Milo”, songs which glorify the Montenegrin state, dancing in the streets The election victory of “For Better Living” coalition was celebrated in Montenegrin capital.

About one hundred kilometres away, in Herceg Novi, there was another celebration. But here people cheered for Serbia, Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic, Momir Bulatovic. For a good reason: over there local elections were won by Djukanovic's opponents – “Yugoslavia” coalition the leader of which is federal prime minister Momir Bulatovic, president of Socialist People's party (SNP). The pictures here resemble those from the beginning of the nineties when Montenegrins were waging war on Croatia and Bosnia together with the Serbs. “Serbia is our state and we will work for Herceg Novi via Serbia”, the first on the winning list and future mayor of Herceg Novi, Djuro Cetkovic, excitedly declared.

Triumph of anti-Milosevic forces in Podgorica, and their defeat in Herceg Novi – this is the result of early local elections that took place on 11 June. According to unofficial results Djukanovic's coalition “For Better Living” won absolute majority in Podgorica – 28 out of the total of 55 seats in city assembly. Bulatovic's alliance called “Yugoslavia, with 19 seats won, will rule in Herceg Novi, the assembly of which has 35 seats.

One is bound to say – a tie, Bulatovic is celebrating in Herceg Novi, and Djukanovic in Podgorica. Whose slice of power is bigger?

There is no doubt about one thing: the greatest loser in these elections is the Liberal League, an opposition, pro-independence party, which has caused the crisis and early elections in these two cities when it broke the union with the Montenegrin ruling coalition last winter. The Liberals had believed that in these elections they would create for themselves a chance for greater participation in power. However, in Podgorica they won just four seats (exactly like in parliamentary elections), and in Herceg Novi two (one less than last time). But their deputies, unlike before, will not be needed by absolute winners to form the municipal governments.

The other loser is the Social Democratic Party (SDP), a member of the ruling coalition. Its leaders had decided to run independently in Herceg Novi. They were on the verge of winning the necessary three per cent of the votes in order to be represented in municipal assembly. But they were left without a single seat, and their foolishly squandered votes went to the winners – “Yugoslavia” coalition.

And how did the two large blocks fare – “For Better Living” coalition of Milo Djukanovic and “Yugoslavia” coalition of Momir Bulatovic?

In comparison with the elections of two years ago, “For Better living” coalition has significantly improved its rating. It won almost fifty per cent of the votes and its advantage in comparison with its main rivals, members of pro-Milosevic SNP, is bigger by nine thousand votes. In 1998 elections the difference between the main rivals was much smaller.

“We have won several thousand votes more than in previous elections. Our key political opponents have lost four and a half thousand votes. We won a great victory and this is a true political triumph of our policy in the capital”, said president Djukanovic, adding that there was no place for despair because of the loss in Herceg Novi.

It is true that – due to the magnitude of the electorate in the capital (a little over 110 thousand, which is one quarter of the total electorate of Montenegro), the victory in Podgorica is very important for Djukanovic. But the victory of Milosevic's supporters at the seaside carried a significant psychological weight. Bulatovic has lost Podgorica which he had actually lost two years ago already. But he regained Herceg Novi. In this way he interrupted the series of election defeats which had accompanied him since 1997 presidential elections.

Djukanovic's coalition should already think about the reasons for the defeat in Herceg Novi. It cannot be justified by the fact that in this city there are several thousand refugees, Serbs from Croatia and Bosnia, who have the right to vote. One of the main reasons for the defeat could be hidden in the election tactics. Local issues were neglected. For ten days before the elections Herceg Novi did not have water. And Svetozar Marovic, head of the election headquarters of “For Better Living” coalition tried to win by patriotic, pro-Yugoslav rhetoric. The opponents from SNP, Serb Radicals and JUL gathered in “Yugoslavia” coalition were much more persuasive in the story about the joint country. A day after publication of results about the victory of “Yugoslavia” coalition in Herceg Novi, Svetozar Marovic issued a statement. “I wish to inform you that I am putting at your disposal my resignation at the post of vice-president of our party, in whose name I headed election activities in Herceg Novi”, it was written in the letter Marovic sent to president of DPS Milo Djukanovic on Monday.

Is this an announcement of a split within DPS? This is hard to believe. Marovic has suffered a heavy blow by the defeat in Herceg Novi. But the threat of Milosevic and Bulatovic will more probably cause a change of strategy inside the ruling party than personnel cuts. At least not for the time being.

“For SNP, the most important thing is that the idea of joint life of Montenegro and Serbia has won in local elections”, stressed Predrag Bulatovic, vice-president of SNP after the elections. But reporters say that in the night of expectation of results, there was turbulence within SNP as well. The first statement of Predrag Bulatovic testifies about it, because while speaking about the defeat in Podgorica he also offered his resignation!

All that is a foreboding of heated developments in Montenegro and within the parties. It seems exaggerated, however, to claim that in local elections either of the opposed ideas won – the one in favour of the joint state or the one in favour of independent Montenegro. It is more realistic to say that these elections have cemented the status quo in Montenegro. Balance of forces and balance of fear continue, because the elections confirmed the radical division of Montenegrin society into two blocks – the one which is pro-Milosevic and the other which is anti-Milosevic.

Generally speaking, despite their defeat in Herceg Novi, forces opposed to Milosevic are strengthening. Because Herceg Novi is much smaller than Podgorica, it forms only five per cent of the total electorate. But, anti-Milosevic forces are gaining in strength too slowly for president Djukanovic to make radical moves and hurry up with the referendum and independence. In other words, play-off still lies ahead.

Milka Tadic

(AIM)