Izetbegovic Announced Withdrawal from State Presidency

Not Retirement, But Politics Again

AIM Sarajevo, 7 June, 2000

"There are several reasons for my withdrawal, but the main ones are my age and my health", explained 75-year old Alija Izetbegovic his decision to withdraw from the presidency of B&H when his term in office expires on 12 October, 2000. Although the announced departure from Presidency was quite pompously presented on state TV and although there are rumours already about not so good Izetbegovic's health, his additional clarification about bad communication with the international community, disappointment with his "misled people" and the situation in the Party of Democratic Action (SDA), speak in themselves that Izetbegovic is not withdrawing solely because, as he claims, his "physical and nervous condition" but that it is a logical step the political reality in which he has found himself has forced him to take.

Izetbegovic himself estimates his anticipated withdrawal from the Presidency in October – although his term at the post in this state agency will not expire for another two years – as just relieving of a part of his current duties, but not at all as political retirement! He plans to devote more of his time to work in SDA as the president of this party, which in the past local elections in the absolute sum of the votes won less support than the Social Democrats, i.e. the opposition. The recent session of the main board of his party showed that, for the first time after foundation of SDA, sharp criticism is addressed to Izetbegovic for the political failure and loss of influence of the once omnipotent Bosniac movement. Although his name was not mentioned much in criticism heard due to poor election results, voting for the new members of the main board showed that Izetbegovic does not have the decisive influence in the party any more. His two favoured candidates (Hilmo Neimarlija and Halid Genjac) did not win support of members of SDA, and the radical faction headed by Omer Behmen and Hasan Cengic won much greater support. Additional indicator of prevalence of the so-called Islamist faction in SDA which is obviously not controlled by Izetbegovic any more, was rapprochement of the until recently Izetbegovic's man of confidence, the current prime minister of B&H Federation Edhem Bicakcic with the mentioned leaders of the radical faction. Punishing the prime minister for his “flirtation” with this faction which had openly supported him in the party vote, Izetbegovic moved Bicakcic from the first to the second place of his possible successors. The leading place, as expected, was recovered by quasi-oppositionist Haris Silajdzic. Indeed, in his announcement of the withdrawal from B&H presidency, Izetbegovic, like any totalitarian leader, recited who he wished to see at his post in the future: Haris Silajdzic, Edhem Bicakcic or the mayor of Mostar Safet Orucevic. In this order, he said.

Although Izetbegovic has a few times already announced his withdrawal, as a rule before elections (“If I shall be in my right mind I will not run again”, Sarajevo, before 1998 elections) and although he said about himself that “he thinks one thing in the morning, and another in the afternoon”, this time he might keep his promise. Nowadays, Izetbegovic should be observed as a candidate of the party which has lost its decisive influence, as a national leader who does not play the leading role among his people, and a politician whose concept, together with his coalition partners – Croat Democratic Community (HDZ) and Serb Democratic Party (SDS), was condemned to ruin by the international community. But so did the people of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as local elections showed. In this context his announced withdrawal from the presidency may be understood as a logical step in making priorities in his engagement, and Izetbegovic will undoubtedly try to save the sinking ship and consolidate ranks in his own party.

What Izetbegovic may achieve by abandoning the post of the collective head of the state, apart from the attempt to regain the leading position in SDA, or as he likes to say “among the Bosniacs”, is to impose his choice of the next Bosniac member of B&H presidency. In other words, he might continue to control the work of the collective head of the state through the successor he himself will select.

After the opposition (primarily the Social Democratic Party –SDP) had heartily rejected the draft election law prepared by the Office of High Representative (OHR) and OSCE, for which one of the arguments was the controversial election of deputy member of B&H presidency, international mediators decided not to organise presidential elections in autumn, but only parliamentary elections. The criticised rule prescribed that each candidate in presidential elections state who he/she wished to see as his/her possible deputy in case he/she was prevented in discharging duties, but that the citizens vote only for the “original” presidential candidate. In this way, nothing would confirm their (mis)trust in the possible successor of the chosen candidate. SDP's persistence in rejection of this rule which subordinates the will of the voters to the will of a single man on the one, and favouring of such a solution by three ethnic oligarchies (especially SDA) on the other, forced the international mediators to give up on prescribing rules for the election of state presidency, postponing solution of this problem for two years, more precisely, until the end of the four-year term in office won by members of the current collective head of the state in 1998 elections.

But, along with the announced withdrawal, Izetbegovic clearly stressed that it had become impossible to avoid prescribing the rule about election of deputy member of presidency, and expressed his conviction that until his departure on 12 October there was plenty of time to pass such regulations. Izetbegovic's advisor for legal issues Kasim Trnka claims that, pursuant the rules now in force, the vacant post of member of presidency is filled by the vote of state parliament, which for Izetbegovic's favourites, will be no problem either. This is especially true after the resumed joint operation of parliamentary (and every other, for that matter) coalition of SDA, HDZ and SDS. On the same day when Izetbegovic addressed the nation with his decision, in state parliament SDS, SDA and HDZ (assisted by the Radicals from Republika Srpska) voted according to dictate for Spasoje Tusevljak for the post of the chairman of the Council of Ministers of B&H, who OHR had already declared was unacceptable and whose candidacy had shocked the American ambassador. At the same time, the opposition (SDP) repeated in vain that Tusevljak had no platform and that it was just the matter of revival of SDS-SDA-HDZ concept aimed at further disintegration of B&H. Obviously, together again like in 1990 and with the unchanged concept of rule, the three ethnic oligarchies will be able to vote confidence to Izetbegovic's chosen successor in parliamentary procedure.

The possibility that Izetbegovic will provoke a presidential crisis may result in the decision of OHR and OSCE to schedule presidential elections in November, along with the parliamentary. According to the election rules now in force, multiethnic parties have not even the minimum chances to have their candidates become members of presidency, especially not with the advantage single-ethnic parties have from the very start. Because members of Presidency are elected solely according to the ethnic and territorial principle (a Bosniac and a Croat are elected from B&H Federation and from RS a member from the ranks of the Serb people) and the voters can give their votes to only one candidate. This practically means that single-ethnic parties put up a candidate from the adequate ethnic group and count on the entire electorate of its members, while multi-ethnic ones, if they wish to participate in this competition, must accept the imposed ethnic model of declaring the will of the electorate and forget the political platforms on the basis of which they are organised. Besides, multiethnic parties cannot offer candidates of all three ethnic groups which should be their main ideal, because that would mean that their electorate must be divided into three parts according to their ethnic affiliation, due to the rule that each citizen can vote for one candidate only. Favouring of the ethnic criterion predetermined the composition of B&H Presidency, so that even if SDP decides to nominate just a Bosniac member, by betting on Silajdzic, apart from SDA, Izetbegovic ensured the votes of the Party for B&H which, put together, is sufficient to beat the leader of SDP, Zlatko Lagumdzija, for instance. The very possibility of Social Democrat Zlatko Lagumdzija entering B&H presidency was assessed by Izetbegovic as unthinkable because “Lagumdzija does not enjoy support of the Bosniac people”. And just a few minutes before making this statement Izetbegovic in the manner of a totalitarian leader lamented that he was “disappointed with his people”! According to him the Bosniacs are somehow too suggestible, liable to propaganda and that is how it came about that a large number of them voted for SDP in local elections. In other words, SDP did achieve better results than SDA mostly among the citizens of Bosnian ethnic origin, but Izetbegovic does not recognise this as their will because he believes that they were misled?

By openly stating that the people had disappointed him Izetbegovic resembled a politician from the Bosnian joke who claimed that the regime was excellent, so it need not be changed, but it was necessary to change the people. Finally, Izetbegovic is also disappointed by the international community, because he has increasing trouble communicating with it and which is, he says, constantly dissatisfied with his behavior. According to him, the international community is in an unprincipled way meddling in the operation of the judiciary and prosecution and quite openly with the editorial policy of the media in B&H. While admitting that the international community to a certain extent has the same goals as he does – democratic, independent and prosperous B&H (he does not mention a multiethnic state though) – Izetbegovic scandalously declared that the international community was implementing these goals to the detriment of the Bosniacs?!

By making the announcement of his resignation in the presidency of B&H Alija Izetbegovic made a tactical move. Regardless of the extent to which political reality had forced him to make such a decision and whether he will actually carry it out in October, international mediators in OHR and OSCE will have to respond quickly to his move with a clear decision – with what and how they will proceed?

Ivana Drazic

(AIM Sarajevo)