Baranja: Emigration, "Baby Bust", TB

AIM Zagreb, May 20, 2000

"Trains without time-table" which after World War II came to Baranja bringing settlers from the poorest parts of Lika, Kordun or Dalmatian hinterland, could now start going into the opposite direction. This once "promised land" has become an economic desert from which everyone wants to run away. Isolated from Croatia, in a remote triangle between the rivers Drava and the Danube and the Hungarian border, Baranja is today paying the price of war, but also of the disintegration of the former state on whose north-west parts (Srem, Backa, Banat) it relied both economically, as well as transportation-wise. After peaceful reintegration in January 1998, it seemed that the return to Baranja would be quickest and simplest - since in contrast to other war-torn areas, Baranja remained practically untouched.

However, Ivica Buconjic, Mayor of Beli Manastir, the only town in Baranja and its political, economic and cultural centre, today openly states that rare returnees regret because they have not remained in places in which they lived in exile and started a new life there.

From August 1991 till mid January 1998, Baranja was excluded from the constitutional-legal order of the Republic of Croatia and during the short-lived "state of Krajina" a large number of Croats left it. The "Belje" Combine, which during former Yugoslavia was one of the leading producers of wheat, milk, meat and vines, was seriously devastated during those seven years and, what is worse, its name totally disappeared from the market. Managements appointed by the HDZ authorities after the reintegration, were elected according to their political eligibility and not expert skills so, instead of becoming a vehicle of development for the entire region, "Belje" sank deeper and deeper. Exhausted by constant strikes, accumulated debts and strong foreign competition, "Belje" totally collapsed and became a millstone round Baranja's neck.

Mistaken belief that return was possible without providing employment or - as the published short-hand notes of Tudjman's talks with his close associates have revealed - the intentional policy of the former Croatian authorities of not investing in the economic renewal of Podunavlje, are the major reasons of the announced mass-exodus from Baranja. Tensions between local Serbs and Croat refugees have eased in relation to those that existed in the first months after reintegration and had economic stability and bread been provided for everyone and without any provocation from the side, they would have soon disappeared altogether. But, with 45 percent unemployment rate, which is drastically above the already high Croatian average, everything is brought into question.

In addition, Baranja has been infected with the "baby bust", but also increased incidence of tuberculosis, a disease accompanying poverty and misery. Last year, the number of deaths in Beli Manastir exceeded that of births by 20, and a similar trend was registered in the villages of Baranja. However, local health workers are more concerned with the drastic increase of the TB cases than with the "baby bust". Compared to the pre-war situation that number is by 20 percent higher, which according to the number of cases makes Baranja equal to some underdeveloped African country.

During his recent visit to this part of Croatia, Ivan Jakovljevic, Minister for European Integrations in Ivica Racan's Government, was appalled by the situation he discovered there. He announced foreign investments in this region, as well as certain projects which were approved at the Stability Pact Donors Conference. However, these are long-term measures which require extensive preparations and some time to be implemented. However, Baranja needs urgent help now and local authorities are unable to say how will that be provided.

Early local elections which were held in Beli Manastir late last year, just before parliamentary elections of January 3, brought HDZ to power thanks to a narrow majority and its coalition with HSP. The marriage of the "unionists" and "rightists" did not turn out right because, despit many similarities, HSP has now become an albatross around HDZ's neck. One of HSP's conditions for forming a coalition with HDZ was changing the name of Beli Manastir into St. Martin.

Not having much choice, the local HDZ had to agree to HSP's demand, as it could not have established local authorities without HSP because parties which have crossed the electoral threshold - the opposition on the one and the Independent Democratic Serbian Party on the other side - were not desirable coalition partners.

It probably thought that once satisfied with its part in the authorities, HSP would abandon the idea or, that if it wins again the state January elections, the then ruling HDZ would easily resolve that problem. However, neither did HDZ win the January elections nor did the local HSP, strongly supported by Ante Djapic's Zagreb headquarters, give up its initiative.

In the general uproar and muscle flexing on the Croatian right, the idea on changing the name of Beli Manastir into St.Martin seemed to Anto Djapic as heaven-sent for the further rightist radicalisation of political tensions, especially in sensitive areas such as the reintegrated valley of the Danube river. That is why HSP is now with all its might and main trying to push through this initiative, only additionally inciting the revolt of the local Serbs. The change of name from Beli Manastir into St.Martin (which was once the name of this town in its history) has suddenly become a dominant political topic in Baranja which has pushed the burning economic problems, ruin of the "Belje" Combine, exodus of the population and incidence of rare African diseases to the background.

Radical political forces are so much against the adjective "white" in the name of Beli Manastir (which means a white monastery) that it is not mentioned on traffic signs on roads leading into the town. They only say "B.Manastir" which should represent a compromise between the local Serbs and the radical stream of Croatian returnees, who are irritated by everything that reminds them of Serbia and the Serbian language.

The HDZ Mayor Buconjic now plans to postpone the holding of a referendum on the change of the town name. Until then, he said, citizens should be informed what this change implies: from issuance of new personal documents, like ID cards, driving licences or passports, to change of registration plates on cars and names on the maps, etc.

This is by no means a cheap action as somebody has calculated that it would cost each citizen some 500 kunas, while indirect costs (change of seals, letter headings, various signs on state and public institutions, and finally the holding of a referendum) would be even higher. Is that truly the most important thing that the local authorities should deal with at this moment, while the economy is going down the drain?

Buconjic doesn't think so, but his coalition marriage with HSP crucially depends on that move. Djapic's party surely doesn't plan to abandon its demand under any circumstances, even if that would mean the breaking up of the local coalition with HDZ. According to estimates, the fact that it managed to irritate the local Serbs with this demand could bring it additional votes of radical returnees, dissatisfied with the situation in Baranja. The disintegration of the ruling HSP-HDZ coalition in Baranja could lead to the holding of early local elections on the national level.

Then both parties would most probably be defeated, which is what keeps them together. That is why the referendum will mostly likely be organised in the autumn - unless in the meantime, the economic collapse drives everyone out of Baranja.

(AIM)

Drago Hedl