Hundred Days of Racan's Government

AIM Zagreb, 14 May, 2000

Its first hundred days Croatian government will observe by a multi-medial happening. The multimedia performance will compensate for lack of emotion. Elections in Zagreb have shown that the honeymoon has ended for the new administration. The public strongly supports the government, there is no question about that, but at the same time it is highly critical about its work.

On the eve of observation of the first hundred days, a glorious congratulations note arrived from Brussels in the form of an invitation for Croatia to join the Partnership for Peace. Because of Tudjman's policy this country was internationally isolated, after his departure the world has heartily but ineffectually patted Racan on his back. From the intensity of the support, the back of Mr. Racan was black and blue, but his pocket was still empty. The acceptance in the Partnership for peace was the first specific move of the Western world towards Croatia. This is at the same time the first serious announcement that, probably irreversibly, the process of its inclusion in Western associations has been opened.

Much worse results are achieved on the internal sphere. The generally spread opinion is that the government has not used this time well. It took too long to compose the cabinet, and it took even longer for the new authorities to resolve their internal relations and their own status

• salaries, residences, protocol, red carpets, division of posts, haggling between the presidential palace and the seat of the government During all that time, economic and social retrogression continued. While the authorities quibbled over secret services, the army of the unemployed grew in the past three months – by another fifty thousand people. The government is reproached for being irresolute, calculating, for inactivity, it is claimed to be wasting time, that it has no social delicacy, that it cares more for the interests of capital than that of workers. Someone has noted a few days ago that the prime minister seems to be waiting for the problems to be resolved spontaneously.

During the campaign, there were promises that the law on revision of transformation would be passed as an urgent matter, on the very first session of the assembly. But, the first hundred days have passed and the debate about this problem has not even been opened. Similar is the case with all the major reforms which need to be carried out. The changes are too small and too slow. The government is constantly, with good reason for that matter, seeking excuses in the inherited situation, but it has not even made a comprehensive analysis of what it had found when it had come to power. A serious program for finding a way out of the crisis and development of the country has not been presented to the public yet. Instead of making the announced cuts, the government seems increasingly to be settling down with continuity.

What it in fact thinks, the Croatian public showed in Zagreb elections, which are the first encounter of political parties with the voters after general elections of the beginning of this year. Four months after Croatia had given its plebiscitary votes to changes due to which 3 January elections are considered to be “revolutionary”, the citizens conveyed a clear message to the new regime: they still support it although discontent with its behavior and results is growing. The discontent was manifested in two ways – by a very high abstention of the voters and by a different division of votes within the coalition of the ruling six parties.

The turnout was just one third of the voters, which is incredibly little for Croatian conditions. This is less than half of the number who voted four months ago. The parties are trying to explain this smack on the face in various ways (as a pretext they say that the electorate is tired, and even that the weather was sunny on the day of the elections); majority of analysts, however, think that the reason was a silent boycott of all the parties in general. Refusal of the citizens of Zagreb to come to the polls is perhaps the most important result of the elections.

Discontent with the work of the government so far is reflected also in the election results of individual parties. The Social Democratic Party (SDP) is the formal winner, but at the same time it is also the loser. In January SDP had its strongholds in Rijeka and Zagreb. Together with the then weak Budisa's Liberals it won almost 50 per cent of the votes at the time. In Zagreb it has now won just a little bit over 20 per cent, so that the Croat People's Party (HNS) with its 19 per cent is unpleasantly breathing down its neck. It is especially unpleasant because HNS was so far considered to be a marginal party, it was happy when it succeeded to cross the necessary limit for entering the parliament, and nowadays it caused the biggest surprise in the elections.

Failure of SDP and success of HNS are interpreted in the same manner – by the attitude of these parties towards election promises. Contrary to Social Democrats who are increasingly experienced by the public as waverers, the Populists appear to be much firmer. The public judges SDP, as the leading party in the ruling coalition, according to the results of the government.

Very popular president of the Republic Stjepan Mesic is linked to HNS; this party has probably profiteered from his personal popularity. But it is important to note that Mesic's and the popularity of the new president of the party, Vesna Pusic, are one of a kind. In the past four months these two persistently insisted on freeing Croatia of the effects of Tudjman's rule, incessantly speaking about sins of HDZ policy, from the plundering privatisation, division of Bosnia & Herzegovina, to ethnic cleansing of Croatia. Other parties of the ruling six do not approve of such practice, but the voters rewarded it.

Although rightist rallies have become very frequent all over Croatia, elections in Zagreb have shown that although loud, the “black-shirts” are in fact definitely very weak. The ultimate right is not present at all, the members of the Croat Party of Right and Christian Democrats have not reached the election minimum, in comparison with January elections HDZ has lost another 9 per cent, but it has managed to win almost 12 per cent of the votes which is objectively considered to be a success, especially because Democratic Centre, the party of former foreign minister Mate Granic which seceded from HDZ, started well, so that put together – the former and the present members of HDZ – won almost the same number of votes as the victorious SDP.

The elections in Zagreb have confirmed the rule of the six-party coalition, at this moment Croatia has no alternative, but the relation of forces in the coalition government has changed. After the expiry of the first hundred days, Racan's party is still the most powerful one, but not at all as powerful as in the beginning of his term in office. That new regrouping is in preparation can be concluded from the quite evident disassociation of SDP's coalition partner, Drazen Budisa and his Liberals. This party seems to be showing the intention to take over the disappointed voters of HDZ, so it is increasingly advocating the so-called national issues which are already mostly a matter of the past in Croatia. There are guesses that Budisa is already making preparations for post-Racan's era – when the government, worn out by inherited problems and unable to resolve them, lays down its arms, the leader of HSLS could emerge on the surface as the centre of a new gathering of the rightists. In political circles the question which is increasingly arising is: will Racan enter a strategic alliance with popular but for him too radical Mesic, or will he remain loyal to the loosened link with Budisa who is increasingly inclining towards the right.

Jelena Lovric

AIM