Election Forecasts: Return of the Written Off in RS

Nationalists stand a good chance to return to power thanks to unsuccessful reformist experiment in the Republika Srpska conceived by the international community and parties of the rump Sloga (Harmony) coalition

AIM Banja Luka, 3 April, 2000

Local elections in the Republika Srpska, like the previous ones (1997 parliamentary and municipal elections) will offer answers to certain questions which have been piling up in the past two years. But more than that these elections will impose new questions which the destiny of RS depends on. First of all, nothing like the elections will give an answer to the question of two-year engagement of the international community in carrying out reforms in RS, nor will anything so efficiently open new questions like the post-election strategy of foreigners in RS.

But, first things first. Much more than the previous elections which resembled national plebiscites, these will be marked by the war between the nationalists and the reformists for predominance within each of the ethnic groups. The symmetry according to which among the Bosniacs and the Croats the part of the electorate in favour of nationalistic parties, HDZ and SDA will further drop out, will probably also be disturbed.

Almost all pre-election polls indicate that SDP is for the first time an equal rival to Alija Izetbegovic, that HDZ will not any more be the party the number of voters of which will in fact be the number of the Croats in B&H, but that SDS will not only maintain its position in Serb electorate but even improve it. Does this mean that five years after the war the Serbs have remained greater nationalists than the Bosniacs and the Croats? Of course not. It means that the regimes in both entities and all the three ethnic groups are deeply discredited. The problem is, however, that among the Bosniacs and the Croats, the nationalistic regime has been discredited, and that regardless of the fact that it is still in power and will most probably continue to be after these elections, by signing the peace agreement in Dayton, it has opened the process of its slow departure. Among the Serbs, during all that time, the nationalists stand a good chance to return to power thanks to the essentially unsuccessful reformist experiment in RS conceived by the international community and the rump Sloga (Harmony) coalition with its new radical and monarchist followers.

That is why the elections will probably reveal the greatest democratic failure of Serb reformists who bear the greatest responsibility for, while fighting for power for two years, they have forgotten to fight for democratic power, that is, for voters. Instead, two years of Dodik's rule have brought about such firm division of the Serb electorate that there will not be any mass migrations of the voters from the reformist camp to the nationalist one and even less in the opposition direction. That is why the severest battle will be fought for regrouping within the camps, out of which Milorad Dodik with his Party of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) among the reformists will certainly come out as the most powerful.

SNSD or How to Rob a Friend: When voting ends, Milorad Dodik will most probably say that his party has never done so well in any elections. And, of course, he will be right, although only after he has turned the government into election headquarters in the best post-communist manner. The problem could arise, however, when Dodik sums up where the votes have come from and when he realises that he has robbed his political friends of them, primarily Biljana Plavsic. Why? Because Dodik's approach to political opponents could be brought down to intimidation, and to political converts from SDS to bribing. It was easier like that, but it would have been more logical the other way round. Just as three of his bodyguards by beating up fans from Banja Luka have done more for Dragan Cavic than his own parents.

If SDS expects some more help from Dodik after the shameful deed with the fans, he can do but two things: set Banja Luka maternity hospital on fire or rob a postman who is carrying pensions at Gospodska street. SNS Or They Were Modern Only One Summer: Success of Biljana Plavsic two years ago consisted of a very logical fact that the scope of her national and pro-Western political speech was so wide that it addressed a larger number of voters than any other party in RS. But times are changing: her entire nationalism was used up in support to Dodik, her whole story about the West was used up on anti-communism which did not strike root among the Serbs even when there were communists. That is why she could do nothing but accuse Mladen Ivanic of cooperation with JUL and discharge minister of justice Milan Trbojevic and launch a seven-day anti-corruption campaign relying on the fact that there are people who still remembered her for it. But, it will be difficult for Plavsic to keep her voters: those who have in the past two years become disappointed in western democracy will give their votes back to SDS, those who have become attracted to democracy have not much reason not to vote for Dodik as the more authentic variant, for those who still believe that both are possible, there is the undiscreditted Mladen Ivanic.

Socialists or Five Past Twelve: If they had a normal electorate, like they do not, the Socialists would after all manage to keep only the voters who are members of the family of the candidates. As it is they still have what to hope for: people of the same age as Zivko Radisic, admirers of the heritage of the People's Liberation Struggle, bearers of the syndrome of Kozara, readers of Politika and supporters of the theory that Milosevic is the only unconquered world leader - and there are at least 200 thousand of them RS (they are to be sought on the list of the pension fund) - they must be very satisfied that Radisic has broken up with Dodik and "thieves" in his own ranks. If one disregards that the Socialists had reached their climax two years ago, that their voters know what is death rate but not what is birth rate and that in Banja Luka nobody who likes Radisic knows who to vote for, it is possible to foretell that it will keep the bulk of their electorate but that they are definitely a party the popularity of which is slowly declining.

SDS or Sit Back and Let Others Do the Work: One should just wait for Dragan Kalinic to state triumphantly after the elections that his party voluntarily gave up power two years ago and avoided the most compromising period of the rule of the Republika Srpska. Of course, he should not be believed, especially because Dodik has done practically nothing in respect to the foreigners that SDS would not also be forced to do. But what is done is done. SDS should not be believed that it has really reformed itself either: the "young lions" who Dodik either did not wish to or could do nothing to attract to join him have taken the lead in this party. Everything SDS has reformed after the period of its reign of terror was actually done by stupidity of the friends from Sloga coalition or the brethren from the ranks of the Radicals. That is why, along with his own, Kalinic will also have the votes of the Radicals, but also a part of nationalistic voters of Sloga who have not heard how Ivanic had made his party. In any case, SDS will not become the only Serb party with which it is worth having anything to do, but after local elections, if Richard Holbrooke fails to fulfil his promise, and Dodik his wishes, SDS will regain its full power.

Radicals or Suicide from Ambush: On 8 April, Nikola Poplasen will not become "the first guerrilla fighter in occupied Europe" although his deputy Mirko Blagojevic promised that he would. The Radicals have therefore ended their career in the elections and the only sense of that party is in foundation of a guerrilla unit consisting o those who do not wish to give their votes to the "treacherous" SDS or a sect of political suicides which is more or less the same thing. Indeed, the Radicals can do nothing but move from the political columns into the black chronicle, and in them there will be no talk about elections so often from now on.

PDP or Little Biljana: The party of Mladen Ivanic appeared on the scene at an ideal time, exactly at the moment when normal people in RS became sick of having to choose between the bitterly inimical "patriots" and "democrats". That is why his position resembles the one Biljana Plavsic was in two years ago: Ivanic does not contradict himself even when he speaks in Banja Luka about reforms, nor when in Radicals supporting Ugljevik he speaks that Poplasen was sent away by the Serbs and not foreigners or when in SDS-loving Pale he speaks about economic neglect of the eastern part of RS. To cut the long story short, Ivanic's chance lies in the fact that he is the only uncompromised person in the past period, the only one whose reputation is not marred by conflicts.

At the same time, it is also his flaw: the man who managed to remain unmarred among the Serbs during all these years must make an awfully great effort to convince the voters that he actually exists. In any case, there will be much more of Ivanic than his enemies foretell and much less of him than those who believe that his victory would end the conflicts in RS might wish.

Others or Something for Everybody: The election system will also enable small parties to enter the municipal authorities with a seat or two in the assemblies. The ones which have regional organisations, like the Democrats from Bijeljina, the party of Predrag Radic or Sloga's Radicals will have the advantage, because they will benefit from Poplasen again, because when they see them on the list of candidates the people will believe that God has given them Nikola (Poplasen) back again, despite the world and reason.

Of course, the Bosniacs will be coming to the polls to pick up their twenty per cent of the votes, and Lagumdzija's SDP will take a little more of Izetbegovic's votes again. There will also be almost ten per cent of invalid ballots.

After all, these will be just local elections, or a race for the start at Republican elections. But, after local elections many alliances in the parliament could break and many others could be formed. That is what it is all about.

Zeljko Cvijanovic

(AIM)