Montenegro and the International Community

Ringing the Alarm

AIM Podgorica, 15 March, 2000

"We in Montenegro have done everything to protect ourselves from possible aggression from Belgrade", said Montenegrin president Djukanovic in his talks last week with Madeleine Albright, American Secretary of State. "Defending ourselves from manifold aggression and negative influence on Montenegro from Belgrade, we are forced to withdraw a part of the sovereignty we have transferred on the federal state", warned Miodrag Vukovic, advisor of Montenegrin president in a statement on Montenegrin state radio.

The vocabulary of politicians sometimes speaks more convincingly than what they intended to say. Almost in a single day two high state officials used the same term - "aggression from Belgrade". Never before has this phrase - so well known from the wars in Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia - been used in Montenegro. And now, from the very top of the Montenegrin state, a warning: Montenegro is threatened by aggression!

Recent appeals of Montenegrin politicians perhaps best illustrate the difficult and controversial current position Montenegro is in. Two years after the victory of the "For Better Living" coalition have not brought the expected revival. It is true that Montenegro has come in the focus of attention of the international community, it is true that Montenegrin leadership has earned praise from abroad and received not at all small economic support... But, Djukanovic and his coalition partners cannot deny the reality either - Montenegro has not solved any of the key problems in its economy or politics.

By introducing the two-currency system Montenegrin state leadership has made a significant step towards disassociation from Belgrade, trying to link Montenegrin economy to European flows of commodities and capital. At the same time, in this way, at least temporarily, Montenegro has protected itself from possible super inflation programmed from Belgrade. But economic measures, in the short run, have not brought about recovery of the economy. On the contrary, introduction of the German mark has, like X-rays, revealed for years concealed problems of Montenegrin economy: low production rate, collapse of many large systems, and impossibility of carrying out quick privatisation. Economic blockade introduced by Milosevic's regime by putting up barriers at Montenegrin-Serbian border near Kolovrat additionally aggravated the position of Montenegrin state.

And economic support of the international community turned out to be sufficient only for bare survival. Indeed, in the course of last year Montenegro, according to the official statistical data, received 77 million dollars of foreign aid. A large portion of the aid consisted of donations in equipment, drugs, food and strategic products (electric power, oil...). Money was separately allocated for realisation of the extensive program of social provision for those most in need (it is estimated that nowadays more than 60 per cent of the population in Montenegro receive some kind of social relief or donations of the state).

There was obviously very little fresh capital for the recovery of Montenegrin economy. And what is most important, in the course of last year, not a single foreign company - despite glamorous announcements from the West - decided to invest its money in the market of Montenegro. With good reason. There is not a single economic stimulus: Montenegro, although a favourite of the international community is still a country of high non-economic risk, which discourages serious foreign investors. And indeed, who would nowadays invest a single dollar or a mark in Montenegrin economy while the realistic threat of a new Balkan war exists?

Numerous indicators do show that instead of better living Montenegro is threatened by a conflict. Except for economic blockade and introduction of YU INFO television program broadcast via army repeaters located in Montenegro, Milosevic is intensifying pressure in the military sphere every day. Not only by increasing the number of members of the notorious Seventh Battalion: during the past week, more than three hundred officers of the Army of Yugoslavia (VJ) from Serbia were transferred to Montenegro, and the VJ has been put on the highest level of the alert in Montenegro... At the same time, statements issued from numerous gatherings of tribal assemblies of members of Bulatovic's Social People's Party (SNP) are a foreboding of a turbulent spring in Montenegro.

That tensions are rising is indicated by the recent visit of Djukanovic to Sarajevo and his talks with Madeleine Albright. Contrary to former practice, talks with US Secretary of State were secret - 24 hours before the talks, not a single Montenegrin media was informed about the Djukanovic-Albright meeting.

Nobody knows exactly what Milo Djukanovic and Madeleine Albright actually talked about. According to certain information, USA promised that in case of Milosevic's attack, they would not sit on their hands. The statement of Wesley Clark who directly threatened official Belgrade to a certain extent confirms this hypothesis.

Did they also talk about the future of Serbian-Montenegrin federation? Montenegrin state leadership has lately been saying that it is increasingly difficult to preserve the federal union. "There has never been less jurisdiction of the joint state in Montenegro than today", said Djukanovic in the talks with Albright. Other representatives of Montenegrin authorities also say that - due to Milosevic's policy - Yugoslavdom has almost died out in Montenegro and that, with every new day, the idea of independent Montenegro is gaining strength.

Is this the announcement that Montenegrin state leadership is forcing the idea of independent Montenegro?

At first sight, that is how it could be interpreted. Under great pressure exerted by the federal authorities, Montenegrin authorities are forced to make moves which - in the economy as well as in politics and in culture -are removing Podgorica further away from Belgrade. Just by looking at the airports it is possible to get a true picture of the situation in the federation. In the allegedly joint state, passengers from Podgorica on their way to Belgrade - or vice versa, it is exactly the same - pass through X-ray control, they are checked by policemen, their papers are controlled, numbers of their identity cards registered... Nobody asks to see passports yet, but it is evident: formally Yugoslavia exists, but actually Serbia and Montenegro operate as two separate states. "We were forced to take back a part of the sovereignty from the federal state", said Miodrag Vukovic, advisor of Montenegrin president and high official of the Democratic Party of Socialists.

Does the conflict in the federation lead to definite dissolution of the federation as it seems according to statements?

No. Djukanovic and other members of his party formally swear to the future of Yugoslavia. "Links between Montenegro and Serbia are far above daily politics", stressed for TV Montenegro Svetozar Marovic, ideologist of the ruling party, although he did not conceal that the federation was experiencing its "most difficult" period since its creation, but also that he believed in its future.

What is then the magic formula of maintenance of the federation? "We believe in the change of policy in Belgrade", says Marovic. Therefore: there is no commodity exchange and no payment operations between Serbia and Montenegro, federal institutions have no legitimacy, nobody politically recognises anybody, the Army of Yugoslavia does not abide by the decisions of Montenegrin state institutions, even the dinar - the last link in the federal chain - is slowly forced out... In the meantime, the strategy of DPS and the coalition authorities is - to wait for democratic Yugoslavia without Milosevic to emerge from somewhere.

To the general strategic confusion an enviable contribution was given by representatives of the international community. Carl Bildt, for instance, claims that Milosevic is bringing army reinforcements and that "Serbia and Montenegro, slowly but continuously, are moving towards a conflict". At the same time, ministers of finance of the European Union keep saying that Montenegro cannot expect higher financial aid "because it is not a sovereign state, which is a precondition for strategic investments". But there are also very clear warnings: "We must not support the idea of independent Montenegro at this moment", appealed Wolfang Petricsh.

"Interesting" thoughts: fear that Montenegro is threatened by war and at the same time - sharp opposition to the intention to have Montenegro choose its own way. It seems illogical, but only at first sight. In the background, leaders of the international community have completely disclosed their strategy: Montenegrin authorities are determined to be the "spearhead" in the political showdown with Milosevic's regime. Along these lines go the wishes to "democratise Serbia" from Montenegro, and official Podgorica has agreed to this story a long time ago. For more than a year, Djukanovic and his associates are doing their best to somehow do harm to the official Belgrade by forming an alliance with Serbian opposition. Djindjic, Draskovic, Perisic, Covic, have been Djukanovic's guests several times, signed agreements, contemplating together a strategy of the struggle against Milosevic. Apart from political alliances, through state media which are watched in Serbia via satellite antennas, Montenegrin authorities are also doing their best to try to influence the audience over there.

For a long time Montenegrin authorities danced to the tune played by the West, whole-heartedly believing in the idea that they could break the Belgrade regime. It turned out that it was unsuccessful. The operation of breaking Milosevic did not have even initial success. On the contrary, Milosevic remained politically strong not only in Serbia but even in Montenegro. The latest public opinion polls show that SNP, party of federal prime minister Bulatovic, can count on about 25 per cent of the votes, which is just slightly less than at the time of parliamentary elections. And the latest operations of the Army of Yugoslavia show that Milosevic is getting ready again to exert pressure on Montenegro.

More precisely: it has turned out that economic aid of the international community is sufficient just for bare existence, that time for transition of the society has been squandered, and that Milosevic's shadow has fallen over Montenegro more than ever. And to make things even more interesting, the existing situation suits President of FRY just fine when both Montenegrin authorities and the international community are speaking about preservation of Yugoslavia at all costs. This is because he too believes in Yugoslavia at any cost. There is only one problem: so far, Milosevic has not been an expert for peaceful denouements.

Drasko DJURANOVIC

(AIM)