Elections in Kosovo - Uncertain

AIM Pristina, 22 January, 2000

Formally nothing has been decided yet, but politically it has: in the course of this year there will be neither parliamentary nor presidential elections in Kosovo, but the citizens of Kosovo will express their electoral will on the local level. Although there are no official reaction, such intention of the international administration in Kosovo will not bring much joy to ethnic Albanian political representatives, especially not to those who have seen themselves at the leading posts ever since the arrival of KFOR in the middle of last year.

A group of the so-called parliamentary parties headed by the Democratic League of Kosovo (DSK) proclaimed in the end of last summer that elections were their political priority. There were of course others too, those from the block of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). But, having just come out of the war, they were primarily preoccupied by fulfilling political promises and building their own internal organisation and political profile. At the time everybody counted on it that elections on the level of Kosovo would take place in the middle of the summer or in the beginning of autumn this year at the latest. There was even talk about an election war and Kosovar head of the family hoping that the international personnel in Kosovo would simply hand over control of the authorities to them and become some sort of a service of independent Kosovar institutions. They also naively counted on easy implementation of the program of humanitarian aid, inflow of foreign capital and quick reconstruction of Kosovo.

Certain segments, maybe even the biggest part of the Kosovo Albanian political spectre still has this illusion. But some are already starting to understand that all this, including the immodest aspirations for taking over power, can take place neither easily nor quickly. There are already those who think that due to political indolence, inefficiency and encumbrance with inter-Albanian intolerance, the whole generation of ethnic Albanian politicians or perhaps majority of them who are on the political scene for 10 years already maybe should not be given the opportunity to compete in the election race for power. But the atmosphere is so full of anger and bitterness especially within the ethnic Albanian population (among the Serb population this is less evident), that there is no chance for a level-headed talk on this topic. Albanian political forces have for years by means fair and foul tried to discredit and degrade the rivals. That is the reason why international arbitration is not only desirable but necessary for introducing order at least into fundamental issues. This is the only way, because of other aspects of the situation as well, to bring about development of the basic mechanisms of social organisation.

A high representative of the international administration recently warned all local politicians that only UNMIK had the mandate to execute power in Kosovo. Regardless of whether the elections would be held or not and on what level they could not change this fact, this representative of the international community assessed. This can mean that local political and party representatives should not have the illusion that they will come to power after the first, and probably not even after elections that will follow.

The fact that local elections and elections on the level of Kosovo will not coincide caused reactions of the public just recently. In fact, only journalists reacted, while those who are interested the most - the politicians and their parties - are still silent. But this does not mean that they still have not defined their stand concerning this question. On the contrary. Ever since the idea about separation of the local from the elections on the level of Kosovo appeared, Albanian political representatives have a firmly defined stand and assessments. The idea of separating elections has been in circulation among the international administration in Kosovo ever since autumn last year. As obstacles for scheduling elections on both levels at the same time difficulties were mentioned in determining the size of the electorate, easing of inter-Albanian and inter-ethnic tensions, avoiding of public debates about important political topics at the time when the most hideous consequences of the war still have not been eliminated and of course the interest for a less risky test of the disposition of Kosovo electorate after so many years. This was the topic discussed in discrete talks in which representatives of the international community in Kosovo showed great interest for the assessments and reactions of the local primarily ethnic Albanian political public. There were no public analyses on the Albanian side although from the very beginning it was known that the Albanian political representatives were not inclined towards this idea or were against it. It is interesting that UNMIK and the Albanians have the same line of argumentation but differ in assessments and intentions.

Since last autumn it is assessed in Kosovo that UNMIK would not be able to organise and support elections results of which would not be in line with expectations of the international community. Representatives of the international community in Kosovo are still dealing with a simplified division of the Albanian political scene into the moderate and the radical faction concerning the question of independence of Kosovo, of course. The international community does not wish to face a possible decision of a Kosovar parliament which would be the expression of a wish of an enormous majority of the citizens for proclamation of independence. That is the reason why head administrator of Kosovo Bernard Kouchner is persistently working on significant broadening of the transitional council which will resemble a parliament only by the number of its members. Both in UNMIK and among the Albanian politicians it is assessed that it would be much easier for the international community to deal with similar difficulties on the local level. The jurisdiction of local authorities is much more limited and practical. Besides, ethnic diversity is much more obvious on this level, and diversity of political affiliations and affinities can also be felt much better especially when Albanian-Serb co-operation about practical issues is concerned.

Approximately the same assessments are stated about the uncertainty of the election disposition of the Serb part of the electorate.

Among Kosovo Albanians it is estimated that absence of the elections on the level of Kosovo leaves a broad space for manoeuvring about the final status of Kosovo until a situation is reached which the international community will consider to be the most convenient. It is estimated that if it does not manage to establish special relations with Serbia, the international community will insist on a status within transformed Yugoslavia. It seems that the international community is relying greatly on the factor of time which is expected to heal at least the deepest wounds and, of course, on changes in Belgrade.

AIM Pristina

Fehim REXHEPI