ESTABLISHMENT OF A NEW GOVERNMENT

AIM ZAGREB, January 11, 2000

After parliamentary elections in Croatia which, in view of the situation that preceded them could rightfully be called, as Tudjman liked to say, a true Croatian miracle, the country is entering a stage which is at the same time both new and old. What is certainly new is that Croatia will be getting a Government which is ideologically very close to those ruling in Europe so that it will begin the solving of problems that have accumulated over the last decade, from the best possible starting position.

The new authorities have prepared a rather good recipe for these problems which includes almost twenty percent disburdening of the budget, reduction of devastating value added tax, limitation of princely representational funds of the highest state bodies, as well as enormous wages of elected and appointed officials. The secret service would be put in order, enormous military expenditures would be rationalised and audited, while transparent relations would be finally established with the former Herzeg-Bosnia, which in principle would mean that it would be assisted to the extent to which minorities in all other countries are assisted and not those in para-states which have their own armies and administration (admittedly, some presidential candidates, like Budisa, think that this new model could not be introduced until the Bosnian Serbs and Bosniacs do the same).

However, only when all these recipes are put together it becomes clear that the new authorities will be faced with a host of problems, so that coupled with the existing high external indebtedness, as well as poor, highly politicised and corrupted state services these problems seem frightening. Therefore, before any new authorities could be formally established a question arises how much and whether at all are they able to cope with this situation. The question is even more topical as despite deeply rooted public opinion, and especially contrary to what it itself claims, personnel potentials of the victorious coalition are rather modest so that for at least two or three ministries it does not have a viable alternative for Ministers from the HDZ Government.

What is most important, this is not the result of the unavailability of skilled intelligent personnel in the country since, naturally, Croatia has enough highly qualified people for these tasks. However, years of opposing the authorities, combined with self-denial verging on frustration have increased the aspirations of the victorious coalition so much that it has already announced its intention to form the so called political government, i.e. one that will include prominent party activists and not experts for individual fields. That is a rather short-sighted decision as the new Government could prove highly incompetent and its establishment might be accompanied by quarrels between coalition members who are now rivals who want to "squeeze in" the Government as many of their men as possible.

This is also connected with another major problem which we had in mind when we mentioned earlier the reactivation of some elements from the old times. After HDZ's crushing defeat, which after probable loss of presidential elections, could cause this party's total disintegration, the question remains who will then be the opposition in Croatia. The group of two until-recent opposition coalitions has won two-thirds majority in Parliament so that apart from HDZ, only the HSP-HKDU right coalition of Ante Djapic and Marko Veselica, managed to get its five deputies into Parliament. That means that contrary to all its expectations, the electoral winner will easily introduce Constitutional amendments - primarily with the intention of abolishing presidential and introducing parliamentary system - while passing of laws which do not require two-thirds, but rather majority vote of deputies would become a mere formality or something similar.

Naturally, in their moments of glory, the winners do not think much for this nor should they, but very soon they could come to their senses and conclude that albeit Croatia has made a major step, it was actually doing nothing else but marking time. Namely, it would again have strong authorities and weak opposition as was the case the entire past decade, which is remembered as the time of futile, highly controlled parliamentarism which everyone would like to forget. This is an argument already used by Mate Granic, presidential candidate for the HDZ, who sees himself as counter-balance to the victorious coalition, and has declared himself as protector of a multi-party and parliamentary system. But, Granic's prospects, who until recently was much more popular than his rivals, are rapidly fading after the defeat of his Party at parliamentary elections.

Moreover, some sort of resistance movement against Granic as President has been formed in the public and the media with unanimous opinion that his victory would jeopardise changes which have been won at parliamentary elections, as well as cynical remarks that he is also one of the protagonists of years-long destruction of multi-partyism so that it would not be very wise of him to pretend to be its guardian angel. However, all this doesn't mean that that the problem which Granic has pointed to does not exist, so that Stipe Mesic hastily took over from him the task of balancing the Croatian political scene. Mesic is a candidate of a tiny Croatian National Party which won only two deputy seats in Parliament and enjoys the support of other parties from the "foursome" which altogether, according to the still unclassified information, has won 16 percent of mandates.

According to the pre-election agreement between two former opposition coalitions, they should now jointly set up a government and agree on the election and appointment of other officials and jurisdiction of Parliament. However, because of the mentioned decision to opt for a political government this will be a first bone of contention within the winning bloc, since the group of four demands that the election of future Ministers to be carried out by consensus which would be the way in which the new Government would also to function. However, the SDP-HSLS duo rejects this considering it to be a blackmail which brings into question the election results.

No matter how gabby and frivolous this quarrel seems, it represents a continuation of a tradition from times when these parties where in opposition and should not be considered as a heresy. Moreover, it would be desirable for the quartet to politically shape itself in such a way to be able to assume the role of a counter-balance to the superior SDP-HSLS pair which has such a strong relative majority that is on a verge of becoming absolute. This will probably happen if, which is rather realistic, Drazen Budisa, the SDP-HSLS candidate, wins presidential elections. Possible victory of Mate Granic would additionally consolidate the group of six and conclude the initiated homogenisation of Parliament. In addition, the sixsome will be forced to stay together by constitutional changes which, in transition from presidential to parliamentary order, should be introduced in the following months. As it can be seen, the coming presidential elections will play an important role in the shaping of the Croatian parliamentary scene, all the more as favourites are Budisa, Granic and Mesic who are vitally interested in the future course of that shaping. Other candidates - Zvonimir Separovic, Ante Ledic, Slaven Letica, Ante Prkacin, Anto Djapic and Tomislav Mercep - are another story and only play a marginal role without any chances or even reason for voters to notice them.

MARINKO CULIC

(AIM)