Eruption of Presidential Candidates

AIM Zagreb, 3 January, 2000

A bewildering crowd is gathering at the door of the presidential palace. Croatia is living through an eruption of presidential ambitions. About thirty candidates have expressed their aspirations to succeed Tudjman and every day this number is growing. If it had not been for the obligation to support every candidacy with ten thousand signatures - it is a question where the ambitions would have stopped. Some of the candidates will almost certainly be unable to ensure such support, although they are resorting to all kinds of ways to accomplish it. For some leaders of the Croat Democratic Community (HDZ) who would gladly take Tudjman's place, signatures were collected even in police stations, and minister of justice is trying to win support in jails.

Except for its number, the list of the interested is also intriguing for its content. The group of pretenders to the presidential ribbon is indeed diverse: there are respectable politicians among them, but also complete anonyms, businessmen and newly risen "stars" in the entertaining business, serious personages and clowns. To Tudjman's rhetoric question: So, tell me, who instead of me?, Croatia is nowadays listing the answer. The late president suggested that there was no adequate replacement for him, and the list of candidates points out that practically anybody can take his place.

Media are trying to explain this boom of presidential candidates. Some claim that it is a democratic explosion which has become possible only after departure of the omnipotent Tudjman. Others proclaim the rush for the post of the president literally frenzy, and they consider nomination of the wide range of bizarre personalities degradation of the institution of the head of the state and of the state itself.

Although every candidate is something else, it is possible to distinguish a few possible reasons for such a peculiar outbreak of interest. The enormous, never bigger number of parties and candidates who ran in parliamentary elections, as well as the increasing number of those who see themselves at the vacant Tudjman's seat, are the result of the fact that politics has become a very profitable, indeed the best paying business, but also of the situation that it is at the same time not valued at all. It has never been less valued and never better paid - that is what the present situation with the political elite is like nowadays in Croatia.

The enormous interest is also the result of predomination of politics over all other spheres of life. Everything is saturated with politics, politics determines everything. Nothing can be solved without it, through it - everything is possible. That is why successful businessmen and publicly known entertainers seized the opportunity to get hold of a political career. When entering the presidential race many do not have Pantovcak in mind, but just plenty of publicity, a moment of public attention, which they will use for other, not just political purposes.

Lowering of criteria, astonishingly obvious in nomination of candidates for the head of the state, is not a new phenomenon. Standards have gone down a long time ago, nowadays it is only being confirmed. In the assembly and the state leadership there have already been persons who decent people would not even buy a used car from. Persons who know nothing and mean nothing. Some of the leaders of HDZ once used to say: if in 1990 a cow had been on their list of candidates, even it would have won a seat in the assembly. Now this practice is coming back to them like a boomerang. The tragicomic-comic list of presidential candidates is in a way like a mirror staring the political elite in the face. One cannot say that the new candidates for high political offices degrade politics, they are just a reflection of the ragtag and bobtail in it. The greatest dethroning of Tudjman, as an analyst comments, is the shocking company of those who wish to succeed the deceased.

In the general confusion caused by eruption of presidential ambitions, the question of election outcome seems to have become of minor importance. According to investigations, the candidates who stand the greatest chance are the common candidate of the SDP-HSLS coalition Drazen Budisa and the candidate of HDZ Mate Granic. Granic is more popular in public, but still has not the undivided support of his own party. The opposition has not reached agreement about a single candidate, so that their men will be rivals to each other. There is no doubt that the results of parliamentary elections will affect the presidential competition. As the candidate of the coalition which will be the winner of the elections for the new assembly, Budisa might be additionally pushed forward.

It appears that the effect of presidential elections on the party which was in power so far could be dramatic. HDZ does not seem to be able to reach an agreement about its presidential candidate. Apart from Granic who is given the best chances by polls, a few other ambitions appeared, and the party is postponing its decision all the time. So far it has just nominated candidates: along with Granic, Vladimir Seks, former head of HDZ assembly majority and vice-president of the party, has also officially made his interest public.

Both express conviction that they will win the final support of the party. Granic stresses that, according to the disposition of the public, he is the person, as he said, with by far the greatest chances to win. Seks, however, is stating in public that Tudjman chose him to be his successor; he says that Tudjman had considered him the first next to him and insisted even that the protocol treat him like that. Competition turned into an open quarrel. Seks accused Granic of not being concerned about Croatian interests, but only his own, he says that ever since the beginning of Tudjman's illness Granic employed all his abilities to fulfil his ambition to become the head of the state. On the other hand, Granic retorted that Seks's presidential candidacy was a move to the detriment of HDZ.

Granic indeed has the support of international community; it considers him as just the opposite to Tudjman's policy, although he was part of it, perhaps just a more polished one. Granic is supported by the Catholic Church as well: at the time Tudjman was still fighting for his life, Archbishop Bozanic secretly had dinner with him. The minister is allegedly a convinced believer; Kaptol (seat of the Church) thinks that with him at the head of the state, HDZ will successfully transform into a Christian democratic party. Not only in the name of the past, but also in the name of this plan the Church is nowadays strongly supporting HDZ again. Granic also managed to get public support of majority of members of the presidency of his party. But the final decision will be reached by the main board of HDZ, and its inclination is, to say the least, divided. Besides, the final decision will be made when results of parliamentary elections will be known, and in them Seks in Slavonija which is inclined to HDZ has better chances than Granic who is running in Zagreb which is oriented against HDZ.

But, regardless of how the presidential race within HDZ will end, dissolution of the party seems increasingly more likely. By deciding on its candidate for Tudjman's successor, HDZ is also deciding on its destiny. Granic's goal is to win the post at Pantovcak and then from that top to shape the party according to his liking. Should he take Tudjman's place, with the still valid Tudjman's enormous power and HDZ in the opposition in the assembly, Granic might be able to define the profile of HDZ more than vice versa HDZ that of - Granic. His position would be more powerful than the position of his party. This causes uneasiness among his companions from the party. They do not trust Granic. Seks would gladly take the position in the presidential palace, but he practically does not stand a chance; his main goal is to preserve predomination in the party.

In the elections for the assembly, HDZ acted skilfully, it made up the lists of candidates with cunning, and managed to avoid severe internal confrontations. Perhaps the reason for this is that all its leaders are in the same boat, in the same position. It is to be or not to be for all. In the race for the president of the Republic - only one will gain. And the others are certain that his gain - will not turn into their loss. That is what their internal relations are like. The two dominating groups with due attentiveness served Tudjman, but they will hardly be able to operate together without him.

JELENA LOVRIC